Environment & Energy
Related: About this forumMost of World's Population Will Breathe Stagnant, Sooty Air by 2099
By Hannah Hoag and Nature magazine
Climate change is poised to worsen air quality in many parts of the globe, according to a study published today in Nature Climate Change. By the end of the century, more than half of the worlds population will be exposed to increasingly stagnant atmospheric conditions, with the tropics and subtropics bearing the brunt of the poor air quality.
A team led by Daniel Horton, a climate modeller at Stanford University in California, used 15 global climate models to track changes in the number and duration of atmospheric stagnation events, in which stationary air masses develop and allow soot, dust and ozone to build up in the lower atmosphere. Much of the air-quality community focuses on pollutants, says Horton. This study takes a step back and looks at the weather or climate component that can lead to the formation of hazardous air quality.
How worsening air quality due to stagnation would affect different regions has been poorly studied, and there are few estimates of human impact. The new study shows just how widespread the effects will be, says Jason West, an environmental scientist at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.
more
http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/air-quality-to-suffer-with-global-warming/
KurtNYC
(14,549 posts)and natural gas before 2068. Coal production peaks in 2025.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_coal
So by 2099 we should have nothing but wind, solar, hydro and human muscle.
n2doc
(47,953 posts)I for one am pessimistic that we will run out of oil or coal in the next century. Our desperation to maintain our present lifestyle will inspire great ingenuity in this area.
NickB79
(19,110 posts)I don't think the estimates of peak coal done in the past took such things into account, because there is apparently quite a lot of the crap out there: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2593032/Coal-fuel-UK-centuries-Vast-deposits-totalling-23trillion-tonnes-North-Sea.html
Experts believe there is between three trillion and 23 trillion tonnes of coal buried in the seabed starting from the northeast coast and stretching far out under the sea.
Data from seismic tests and boreholes shows that the seabed holds up to 20 layers of coal - much of which could be reached with the technology already used to extract oil and gas.
Never underestimate the drive of people to do stupid stuff for money. I thought we were already past Peak Oil a few years ago, and then the fracking started
KurtNYC
(14,549 posts)The preferred source of energy is always whatever is cheapest. Back in the day they didn't pump much Brent crude because it was more expensive than Saudi and other crude to refine but when oil is over $75 they pump everywhere. Same for tar sands.
hunter
(38,264 posts)Air quality won't be a huge lifestyle issue if the soot is from bombed and burning cities.
Heck, maybe the air will already be clearing up by 2099, a fresh new world without any people.