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Benton D Struckcheon

(2,347 posts)
Sat Jun 28, 2014, 10:45 PM Jun 2014

Human sustainability isn't an issue,

environmental sustainability is.
Two different things.
I'm posting this as a separate thread because so many get posted here to advocate the idea that we have to get the population down, and then people come in saying it's inevitable that that will happen anyway, and in a few cases the OP even starts with this.
It won't. Sorry. There is ZERO evidence that human sustainability is at issue.
None. Rien. Nada. Zip.
There is plenty of evidence that biodiversity is getting zapped; I have no issue with that. I just have to look out at my now butterfly free garden (first year I've seen this, but I'm sure not the last) to know that.
But humans? Humans aren't just here, they are positively thriving.
Civilization has not run up against any limit at all yet. The evidence for this is absolutely overwhelming:

1 - World poverty is declining at a record rate. So, remember this when you hear someone saying the doom of civilization is coming: not only is poverty declining, not rising, it is declining at a record rate.
2 - There is no sign of any strain in commodity prices. One of the prime reasons for number one is here, in reason number two: the price of basic commodities is NOT outstripping the capacity of the global population to pay for them.



3 - Conflict, where it is occurring, is occurring among populations unfortunate enough to live in commodity supply regions. This is proof of number two, and is another good way of trying to figure out if human civilization is under strain: are the people living in the centers of civilization fighting more among themselves? The answer is a very definite no. Where conflict is occurring, it is occurring in the places that supply the commodities to the advanced centers. If civilization was under any real strain, the conflicts would be occurring among the advanced places where resources aren't as abundant (Japan is the most extreme example of such a place) while the people in the resource rich countries would be sitting back fat and happy on the money they were making off of those resources. Precisely the opposite is occurring.
This is a little hard to figure out how to measure. The method I came up with is to use two different things that are reasonably easy to objectively measure: the number of refugees created by violence and political repression, cross-referenced to the principal export of the nations these people are running from.
The evidence here is so overwhelming that I stopped trying to do any sort of sophisticated regression analysis because there was simply no reason to. The refugee data came from an organization called internal-displacement.org. The export data came from MIT's Economic Complexity project. There are 59 countries listed as having refugees because of violence and politics by the first organization. Out of the top 10 of these, the most miserable countries on the planet, MIT has export data for 8 of them. All 8 have as their principal export oil.
All 8. 100%.
Those top 10, all by themselves, account for 69% of all displaced people. So, to live in a place that supplies commodities is to have a far higher chance than the rest of the world of being miserable and homeless because of violence. Full bellies don't revolt, generally speaking. Poor people do, because they have nothing to lose. And the poorest and most miserable and luckless people on the planet are those who live in commodity supply regions.
That's because human sustainability is not at issue.

The facts and figures:

[code]
Countries ..............................Number of IDPs ..........Principal Export
Syria........................................ 6500000 ....................Oil
Colombia.................................. 5700000 ....................Oil
Nigeria..................................... 3300000 ....................Oil
Democratic Republic of the Congo 2634900 ....................Oil
Sudan...................................... 2426700 ....................Oil
Iraq......................................... 2300000 ....................Oil
Somalia................................... 1100000 ....................No data
South Sudan..............................1089200 ....................No data
Algeria...................................... 1000000 ....................Oil
[/code]
Total refugees in top 10: 23861600
Total refugees in all countries: 34627280
Percent of refugees in the 8 of those top 10 that are oil exporting countries: 69%

(By the way, don't try to argue that lots of the world is tied up in conflict and are refugees. Tokyo, at 37 million people, has a larger population than the sum total of all refugees in all the countries listed above.)

So, the fight, and it is a fight, is over how much damage we do. Civilizational collapse isn't going to be a saving white knight for the planet, because it's not going to happen, at least not in the lifetime of anyone reading this.
As there is no evidence that any resources are being currently strained by our current population, any projection that claims to scientifically predict where that limit is is flat fraudulent. A lie. Guru after scientific-sounding guru has placed the limit at various points, and human population has blown right past those points without a pause.
Will that continue? I have no idea.
Neither do you, or any guru you choose to cite.

Sources for number three:

Refugee figures: http://www.internal-displacement.org/global-figures
Exports: http://atlas.media.mit.edu/rankings/country/2011/ - (To find the principal export, click on the country, which will take you to a page displaying the exports and imports for that country.)

13 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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Human sustainability isn't an issue, (Original Post) Benton D Struckcheon Jun 2014 OP
World poverty is declining primarily due to China and India industrializing NickB79 Jun 2014 #1
Bingo! nt cprise Jul 2014 #13
Except that humans are part of the environment. Spider Jerusalem Jun 2014 #2
Evidence that a resource is being currently strained by our current population muriel_volestrangler Jun 2014 #3
Has been going on since civilization began. Benton D Struckcheon Jun 2014 #7
Jeremy Grantham disagrees. GliderGuider Jun 2014 #4
The third point in my OP doesn't use economics, Benton D Struckcheon Jun 2014 #6
"The problem is ecological, but humans are doing fine." GliderGuider Jun 2014 #9
Deer can and have been having catastrophic effects on the northeastern US forest, Benton D Struckcheon Jun 2014 #10
Deer were doing great on St. Matthew Island too, right up until they weren't NickB79 Jun 2014 #11
If your point is that feedback is inadequate, then I agree. appal_jack Jun 2014 #5
The balloon expands until it POPS! hunter Jun 2014 #8
Overshoot Boomer Jun 2014 #12

NickB79

(19,233 posts)
1. World poverty is declining primarily due to China and India industrializing
Sun Jun 29, 2014, 12:33 AM
Jun 2014

And that industrialization has been fed almost entirely by a massive boom in coal, oil and natural gas consumption, which in turn is now damaging the supplies of fresh water and farmland that supply food and water to the growing populations.

 

Spider Jerusalem

(21,786 posts)
2. Except that humans are part of the environment.
Sun Jun 29, 2014, 01:46 AM
Jun 2014

If the environment that human populations depend on for food and energy is suddenly not capable of providing either in quantity sufficient to maintain those human populations (which looks increasingly likely in the near term of the next century or so)?

And I wouldn't presume that civilisational collapse just isn't something that's going to happen; if some of the projections about fossil fuel depletion are correct, for instance? The best-case scenario from that: industrial civilisation as we know it enters a phase of terminal decline and permanent economic contraction. Worst-case? Riots, famine, and resource wars. The picture for humanity generally is fairly bleak, anyway.

muriel_volestrangler

(101,310 posts)
3. Evidence that a resource is being currently strained by our current population
Sun Jun 29, 2014, 05:24 AM
Jun 2014
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aral_Sea



That's 20 years' difference. About 65,000 sq. km of inland sea has gone in the past 50 years.

Is the Lower Yellow River Sustainable?

...
In conclusion, our results confirm that the Lower Yellow River is not sustainable at the level it had in the 1950s, and has declined to the point that it is unable to meet any of its primary functional requirements even after the implementation of recent countermeasures.

http://www.soue.org.uk/souenews/issue4/yellowriver.html

Benton D Struckcheon

(2,347 posts)
7. Has been going on since civilization began.
Sun Jun 29, 2014, 01:16 PM
Jun 2014

See, for instance, this: http://www.motherearthnews.com/nature-and-environment/greeks-and-romans-zmaz80mjzraw.aspx

Whether fortunately or unfortunately, these developments had little effect in stopping the spread and continued wealth of civilization. The above example is surely bad for the residents of that area, but won't stop global civilization.

 

GliderGuider

(21,088 posts)
4. Jeremy Grantham disagrees.
Sun Jun 29, 2014, 10:56 AM
Jun 2014
http://www.theravinaproject.org/JGLetterALL_1Q11.pdf

Economics is the wrong tool to use when the problem is ecological. But the ghost of Julian Simon still lurks, I guess.

Benton D Struckcheon

(2,347 posts)
6. The third point in my OP doesn't use economics,
Sun Jun 29, 2014, 01:11 PM
Jun 2014

it uses actual human behavior. Grantham thinks the resource rich will have it good, and of course if his thesis holds up he is absolutely correct. But that isn't how it's turning out. Going down the list of countries with a serious refugee problem, it's easier to list the ones that don't rely on the export of some commodity to survive rather than to list the ones that do, because they're such glaring exceptions.
In that essay he also says affluence will decline. That is economics, and it is straightforwardly refuted by the fact that worldwide poverty is declining so fast.
What we're seeing now is simple: India and China are re-establishing their once leading place at the top of the economic heap, a place they occupied until Western Europe dethroned them. The West can't handle it, and thinks the world is going to pieces. All of these complaints are first world people with a very narrow view of the world and of history. Nowhere will you find in that Grantham piece a mention of ancient China and India. (Adam Smith had a wider worldview, interestingly; he actually observed that China was a richer country overall in his day, but a terrible place for the average laborer.)
As for his commodity price thesis, that was written in 2011. There is still no evidence of prices rising faster than worldwide wealth, which is what you would need for there to be actual strain on civilization. Until there is, the thesis is invalid. Resource rich countries are doing terribly and life there is misery. Industrial nations, whether rich like the US or poor but coming on like China, India or Brazil, are doing well. All of that is exactly opposite to Grantham.
Iron ore, by the way, is falling in price as I write this. Marginal Chinese producers are going belly-up. So much for that.
Here's a site to check for metals prices. Doesn't include iron, but does include copper, lead, zinc, aluminum, and nickel. If you look at the five year charts, you'll see that 2011 was a year when they were all higher than they are today: http://www.kitcometals.com/charts/

The problem is ecological, but humans are doing fine. If you want to fix the ecology, you'll have to fight for it. No getting around it.

 

GliderGuider

(21,088 posts)
9. "The problem is ecological, but humans are doing fine."
Sun Jun 29, 2014, 03:40 PM
Jun 2014

You might get something out of examining the assumptions behind that statement.

Benton D Struckcheon

(2,347 posts)
10. Deer can and have been having catastrophic effects on the northeastern US forest,
Sun Jun 29, 2014, 04:38 PM
Jun 2014

but their population shows no sign of suffering. This is of course a result of human intervention against their predators, and our altering of the environment to make it ideal for them. The deer don't know this and don't care. They'll just keep right on multiplying, and making various species locally extinct purely through the pressure of their browsing. One species goes away, they go on to the next one. I know; I spray fish emulsion in my little patch on the stuff I really want to keep, and they just go on and eat the other plants.
Humans can and will do the same thing, on a much larger scale. The only check will be people on people, not nature on people, not until it is way way way too late.

NickB79

(19,233 posts)
11. Deer were doing great on St. Matthew Island too, right up until they weren't
Sun Jun 29, 2014, 10:54 PM
Jun 2014
http://www.stuartmcmillen.com/comics_en/st-matthew-island/#page-1

Humans can and will do the same thing, on a much larger scale. The only check will be people on people, not nature on people, not until it is way way way too late.


Yep, we're gonna do the same thing that those reindeer did.....
 

appal_jack

(3,813 posts)
5. If your point is that feedback is inadequate, then I agree.
Sun Jun 29, 2014, 11:53 AM
Jun 2014

If your point is that feedback is inadequate, then I agree. Capitalism and industrialized society has been quite adept at externalizing the negatives, and displacing its worst impacts onto the third world. With this misplaced feedback, it is indeed foolhardy to assume that signs of environmental distress would cause us (the first world) to reduce consumption, or for population growth to slow at the margins.

k&r,

-app

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