The NHS is in the midst of a financial hurricane

http://www.theguardian.com/healthcare-network/2016/mar/22/nhs-financial-storm-budget

The forecast from the budget shows no let-up in the weather for the struggling health service, but a plan for the future must be put in place this year

The NHS is in the midst of a financial hurricane
Adam Roberts
Tuesday 22 March 2016 05.33 EDT

A hurricane is characterised by severe storms, surrounding an area of relative calm known as the eye of the storm. The NHS is in the midst of a financial hurricane. Costs are rising faster than funding, creating a perfect storm for NHS providers. Next year will be one of relative calm, similar to the eye of a hurricane, with the largest planned funding increase for 2016-17. This is followed by flat or falling real-terms funding per head until 2020-21.

The forecast from the budget shows no let-up in the weather; in fact the forecast looks worse for three reasons.

The first is that the economy is not growing as fast as previously thought, largely due to a fall in the expected rate of productivity growth. This means lower tax revenue for the government and a borrowing requirement in 2018-19 that is four times as large as that planned for in November’s comprehensive spending review. The chancellor has staked his reputation on achieving a surplus in the national budget by 2019-20. To achieve this, public spending will now have to fall by an extra £3.5bn in 2019-20 and £10bn in 2020-21.

There are obvious implications for public services, and the clear link between poor public services and demand for healthcare is ignored at our folly. A fall in the quality of social care, social housing or education can reduce the health of countries’ population’. And while NHS England’s budget is protected, the rest of the Department of Health is subject to further budget reductions, including for public health and staff training.