Putin did not order the hit on Navalny, but he will be blackmailed into a coverup. (lengthy analysis

A russian colleague this morning rejected the narrative this morning: "Why would Putin kill Navalny? And why now?"

And after some thinking, I have to agree with him:

1. Outside of Russia, Navalny is known as a fighter for justice and transparency. Inside Russia, Putin has successfully branded him as a troublemaker. Politically, Navalny himself is no threat to Putin. His movement is, but Navalny himself is not.

2. Navalny is useful for Putin's government: "Look at this foreign agent in our midst trying to destabilize Russia! Hate him! Hate him!" (Everyone working against Putin is automatically branded a foreign agent in Russia.)

3. If Putin really wanted Navalny gone, they would simply send him to a gulag on trumped-up charges.



If not Putin, who then has tried to kill Navalny?

Someone of Putin's underlings, who thinks he's doing Putin a favor.

Remember the murder of the russian opposition-politician Boris Nemtsov.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boris_Nemtsov
He was assassinated by some hired hitmen linked to chechnyan strongman Ramzan Kadyrov. The person who ordered the hit was never found out, but it was clear that Nemtsov was assassinated for his liberal views, which rubbed conservatives like Kadyrov the wrong way.

The russian investigators never investigated the connections from the hitmen to Kadyrov.
Why?
They were obviously called off by Putin.
Why?
Because Putin wants peace in Chechnya and angering Kadyrov would have reopened that powder-keg of islamic extremism.
Putin had no choice but to provide a coverup for this murder, for the sake of Russia's political stability.



Or remember the murder of Sergej Magnitsky.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sergei_Magnitsky
Sergej Magnitsky was an auditor who discovered that a group of corrupt cops and judges had used forged documents to defraud the russian government for millions of dollars. He was then arrested by those very same cops and sentenced by those very same judges for this very same crime.

The obvious leads proving the fraud and the embezzlement and the corruption were never followed up by a prosecutor.
Why?
They were obviously called off by someone.
Why?
Because by calling out these judges and cops, Putin would have to declare publicly that a whole powerful network of corrupt judges and corrupt cops, capable of forging documents, capable of throwing you into jail on a whim, capable of killing you on a whim, exists in Russia.
Putin had no choice but to provide a coverup for this murder, for the sake of Russia's political stability.











And Navalny's murder will proceed exactly along this pattern:
Navalny gets murdered, with or without Putin's orders or approval.
And as Putin cannot admit that someone commited a murder in his name, he will have no choice but to provide a coverup for this murder, for the sake of Russia's political stability.