Neo-Zangid State erases Syria-Iraq Border, cuts Hizbullah off from Iran

http://www.juancole.com/2014/06/erases-border-hizbullah.html

Neo-Zangid State erases Syria-Iraq Border, cuts Hizbullah off from Iran
By Juan Cole | Jun. 22, 2014

With the alleged fall to the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria of Qa’im on Saturday, and of Talafar a few days ago, the border between Iraq and Syria has now been effectively erased. A new country exists, stretching from the outskirts of Baghdad all the way to Aleppo. In history, it uncannily resembles the state ruled by Imad ad-Din Zangi (AD 1085 – 1146), a Turkish notable who came to power in 1128 after a Shiite Assassin killed his father. His realms lay between the Abbasid Caliphate on the one hand and the Atabegs of Damascus on the other. Like ISIS, he was not able to take and keep Homs. He also was not able to take Palestine away from the Crusaders, despite a brief alliance for that purpose with Buri of Damascus. ISIS also so far lacks Baghdad or Damascus but like Zangi does have much in between.

~snip~

This is a notional map (don’t hold me to its exact details) of Zangi’s domain at its greatest extent.



ISIS now holds almost all of Ninevah and al-Anbar Provinces, and has a strong position in Salahuddin Province just north of Baghdad. (The Zangid state was a launching pad for Saladin Ayyubi, in Arabic Salahuddin, for whom this province is named). It also has a position in Diyala Province, which stretches between Baghdad and the Iranian border to its east. Diyala is the most mixed of the military fronts, having many Shiites and Kurds (in the north around Khaniqin).

The first thing that occurred to me on the fall of Qa’im is that Iran no longer has its land bridge to Lebanon. I suppose it could get much of the way there through Kurdish territory, but ISIS could ambush the convoys when they came into Arab Syria. Since Iran has expended a good deal of treasure and blood to keep Bashar al-Assad in power so as to maintain that land bridge, it surely will not easily accept being blocked by ISIS. Without Iranian shipments of rockets and other munitions, Lebanon’s Hizbullah would rapidly decline in importance, and south Lebanon would be open again to potential Israeli occupation. I’d say, we can expect a Shiite counter-strike to maintain the truck routes to Damascus.