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unhappycamper

(60,364 posts)
Mon Jun 23, 2014, 06:37 AM Jun 2014

A doomed US-Iran dynamic in Iraq

http://atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/MID-01-230614.html



A doomed US-Iran dynamic in Iraq
By Mahan Abedin
Jun 23, '14

The sweeping advance of militant Sunnis across much of northern and central Iraq has rang alarm bells across the international community and touched off a flurry of anxious analysis on the potential collapse of the Iraqi state and the emergence of a radical Islamic regime in the Arab Sunni heartlands of Iraq.

For Iran, the most influential power in Iraq, the latest Iraqi insurgency holds both peril and promise. On the one hand, the coalition of Sunni Arab tribes, ex-Baathists and assortment of extremists fighting under the banner of the Islamic State of Iraq and Sham (ISIS) are natural enemies of Iran who given the slightest opportunity wouldn't hesitate to bring the fight inside Iran's borders.

On the other hand, the staggering incompetence of the Iraqi government and the mood of panic, fight and flight which has gripped the country presents Iran with an opportunity to deepen its influence in Iraq and to extract vital concessions from Iraqi leaders in exchange of decisive Iranian military support.

But the biggest challenge to Iran is to manage demands and expectations that it should cooperate with the United States to tackle the widespread and unprecedented terrorist challenge in Iraq. Even minimal coordination with America at this point is tantamount to falling into a deep and dangerous trap which would not only diminish Iranian influence in Iraq, but would impact negatively on broader Iranian strategic posture in the region.
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