The 9 Potential Scenarios For Team USA

Beat Portugal, beat Germany. The U.S. advances as the first-place team from Group G.

Beat Portugal, draw Germany. This also guarantees the U.S. first place. (If Germany had beaten Ghana, this would have meant a first-place tie instead.)

Beat Portugal, lose to Germany. The U.S. advances as the second-place team from Group G. (Previously, there was an outside chance that the U.S. could have failed to advance despite accumulating two wins in the group, but this possibility was eliminated by Saturday’s draw.)

Draw Portugal, beat Germany. The U.S. advances in first place.

Draw Portugal, draw Germany. The U.S. and Germany tie atop the group with five points, but Germany gets the first position on the basis of goal differential. The U.S. advances as the second team from Group G instead.

Draw Portugal, lose to Germany. This outcome depends on the result of the Portugal-Ghana match:

If Portugal beats Ghana, the U.S. and Portugal tie for second. The U.S. is favored (although not guaranteed) to advance based on goal differential because Portugal’s 4-0 loss against Germany could come back to haunt it.
If Ghana beats Portugal, the U.S. and Ghana tie for second. This is a more dangerous case for the United States. For example, if it loses to Germany by more than one goal, or Ghana beats Portugal by more than one goal, the U.S. will lose the tiebreaker to Ghana. It also doesn’t help the U.S. that Ghana’s match against Germany was high-scoring because FIFA’s second tiebreaker is based on the number of goals scored. For example, if the U.S. draws Portugal 1-1, loses to Germany 1-0, and Ghana beats Portugal 1-0, then the U.S. and Ghana will have even goal differentials. But Ghana will have four goals scored to the Americans’ three and Ghana will advance.
If Portugal draws Ghana, the U.S. finishes in sole possession of second place and advances.

Lose to Portugal, beat Germany. The U.S. advances, probably as the first-place team, although Portugal could knock the U.S. into second if it also beats Ghana and makes up its lopsided goal differential.

Lose to Portugal, draw Germany. This isn’t such a favorable outcome for the Americans, but it depends on what happens between Portugal and Ghana.

If Portugal beats Ghana, the U.S. finishes third in the group and is out of the World Cup.
If Portugal draws Ghana, the U.S. finishes tied for second with Portugal. This becomes dangerous if the U.S. loss to Portugal is by more than one goal since that simultaneously helps Portugal’s goal differential and hurts the United States’. For instance, if the U.S loses to Portugal 2-0, draws Germany 1-1, and Portugal beats Ghana 2-1, then Portugal would advance.
If Ghana beats Portugal, the U.S. finishes tied for second with Ghana and it comes down to the tiebreaker.

Lose to Portugal, lose to Germany. The U.S. is out of the tournament. (Previously, there was an outside chance the U.S. could have advanced despite losing its remaining matches, but this possibility was eliminated by Saturday’s draw.)

http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/germanys-draw-didnt-help-the-u-s/