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Eugene

(61,595 posts)
Thu Aug 6, 2020, 06:20 PM Aug 2020

'Extremely active' hurricane season possible for Atlantic Basin

Source: NOAA

'Extremely active' hurricane season possible for Atlantic Basin

NOAA urges preparedness as we enter peak months for hurricane development

August 6, 2020 — Atmospheric and oceanic conditions are primed to fuel storm development in the Atlantic, leading to what could be an “extremely active” season, according to forecasters with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service. Today, the agency released its annual August update to the Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook, initially issued in May.

The 2020 Atlantic hurricane season has been off to a rapid pace with a record-setting nine named storms so far and has the potential to be one of the busiest on record. Historically, only two named storms form on average by early August, and the ninth named storm typically does not form until October 4. An average season produces 12 named storms, including six hurricanes of which three become major hurricanes (Category 3, 4, or 5).

“This is one of the most active seasonal forecasts that NOAA has produced in its 22-year history of hurricane outlooks. NOAA will continue to provide the best possible science and service to communities across the Nation for the remainder of hurricane season to ensure public readiness and safety,” said U.S. Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross. “We encourage all Americans to do their part by getting prepared, remaining vigilant, and being ready to take action when necessary.”

The updated outlook calls for 19-25 named storms (winds of 39 mph or greater), of which 7-11 will become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or greater), including 3-6 major hurricanes (winds of 111 mph or greater). This update covers the entire six-month hurricane season, which ends Nov. 30, and includes the nine named storms to date.

A comprehensive measure of the overall hurricane season activity is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which measures the combined intensity and duration of all named storms during the season. Based on the ACE projection, combined with the above-average numbers of named storms and hurricanes, the likelihood of an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season has increased to 85%, with only a 10% chance of a near-normal season and a 5% chance of a below-normal season.

“This year, we expect more, stronger, and longer-lived storms than average, and our predicted ACE range extends well above NOAA’s threshold for an extremely active season,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.

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Read more: https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/extremely-active-hurricane-season-possible-for-atlantic-basin

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Source: Washington Post

NOAA’s new hurricane outlook shows so many storms, we may have to turn to the Greek alphabet

The season has already broken records, with nine named storms to date.

By Andrew Freedman
8/6/2020, 3:48:30 p.m.

The 2020 Atlantic hurricane season has already set records for being so active, with Hurricane Isaias being the earliest ninth named storm on record. Now, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is predicting that many more records may fall in the coming months, as the Atlantic hurricane season cranks out at least 10 more named storms.

The updated outlook released Thursday calls for a total of 19 to 25 named storms (winds of 39 mph or greater), of which 7 to 11 are expected to become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or greater), including three to six that could become major hurricanes (winds of 111 mph or greater). This update covers the entire hurricane season, which ends Nov. 30, and therefore includes the nine named storms to date.

About 95 percent of hurricanes and major hurricanes form from August to October, National Weather Service director Louis Uccellini said during a news conference call. In more than two decades of issuing these forecasts, NOAA has never predicted that as many as 25 named storms would form in a single season.

It would take only 21 named storms before all the names on the Atlantic list, determined ahead of time by the World Meteorological Organization, are exhausted and forecasters would turn to the Greek alphabet. This happened only once before, in 2005, a devastating season that was the most active on record.

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Read more: https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2020/08/06/hurricane-outlook-extremely-active/

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