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applegrove

(118,577 posts)
Tue Sep 18, 2012, 10:55 PM Sep 2012

"This race is not a toss up. Romney is losing" by Jamelle Bouie at WP

This race is not a toss up. Romney is losing

by Jamelle Bouie at WP

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/post/this-race-is-not-a-toss-up-romney-is-losing/2012/09/18/22807bb0-01a1-11e2-bbf0-e33b4ee2f0e8_blog.html

"SNIP................................

Yes, there are examples of candidates making rapid gains in September and October; after trailing in the weeks after the conventions, John Kerry caught up and tied George W. Bush in Gallup’s likely voter polling. If Romney could make a similar comeback, he’d have a real shot at victory. But as Nate Cohn points out, Kerry’s gains came from winning back Democratic voters who strayed from the flock. As Cohn puts it, Bush’s lead was inflated by Kerry voters “hanging out in the undecided column.”

The same isn’t true of Obama’s current lead. According to Cohn, Obama’s gains came from members of his coalition and traditionally Democratic groups — if anything, he lost support among Republicans. Barring catastrophe, Obama will hold on to his supporters. Overall, both candidates are winning the vast majority of partisans and partisan-leaners, and there’s simply not enough slack in the electorate for Romney to make rapid gains. He’ll have to win people who voted for Obama in 2008, and right now, that doesn’t seem likely.

Anything is possible, and so Romney could make a comeback. The collapse of the Eurozone or a major terrorist attack could shift the electoral balance toward Republicans. But in the absence of a dramatic event, Romney’s odds are shrinking. The debates could make a difference, but the evidence suggests otherwise — at best, debates can nudge a very small share of the public in close elections.

To put this another way, the last presidential candidate to reverse his fortunes at this stage of the game was Harry Truman, in 1948. Those are long odds, and frankly, Mitt Romney doesn’t seem like the man to beat them.

.................................SNIP"
18 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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"This race is not a toss up. Romney is losing" by Jamelle Bouie at WP (Original Post) applegrove Sep 2012 OP
the anti-Obama hate vieos have not started, I only hope hollysmom Sep 2012 #1
Donald Trump said tonight that Romney had not spent much money on applegrove Sep 2012 #2
Trump is birther Cha Sep 2012 #3
I agree with Peggy Noonan on this: K8-EEE Sep 2012 #10
Dear Peggy, they won't spend money on ads; they'll spend it on GOTV Liberal_Stalwart71 Sep 2012 #17
That is because the PACS backing Romney are spending TONS of money on ads. Tx4obama Sep 2012 #12
he's 11 million dollars in the hole wtf is Trump talking about plus the money won't matter bigdarryl Sep 2012 #16
The debates will put the final nail in Romney's campaign coffin. Kalidurga Sep 2012 #4
I've been so looking forward to the debates Sugarcoated Sep 2012 #7
Yeah if lying is a great debate skill he is near the top. Kalidurga Sep 2012 #14
It is only a tie if you are a delusional republican Doctor Jack Sep 2012 #5
Recognizing that Romney is in trouble is fine jzodda Sep 2012 #6
November 6TH, my dear. :) Liberal_Stalwart71 Sep 2012 #18
I seriously doubt "a major terrorist attack could shift" voters towards Willard. Indpndnt Sep 2012 #8
People would rally around a President Sugarcoated Sep 2012 #9
"The collapse of the Eurozone or a major terrorist attack" bhikkhu Sep 2012 #11
The only way I see Romney gaining ground is if the "true" Romney comes out... bluesbassman Sep 2012 #13
win people who voted for Obama in 2008 Corgigal Sep 2012 #15

hollysmom

(5,946 posts)
1. the anti-Obama hate vieos have not started, I only hope
Tue Sep 18, 2012, 11:15 PM
Sep 2012

people see them for what they are and turn against Romney more.

Cha

(297,029 posts)
3. Trump is birther
Tue Sep 18, 2012, 11:22 PM
Sep 2012

Quack. A gopropaganda tool. The Obama Team have put out a lot of Ads to answer Mitt lies.

They will put out more Ads to counter all of Mitt's LIES.

K8-EEE

(15,667 posts)
10. I agree with Peggy Noonan on this:
Wed Sep 19, 2012, 01:45 AM
Sep 2012

What a stupid strategy for them to hoard all this money until everyone's minds are made up and they are sick of/tuning out of the whole campaign. I honestly think the lack of ad placement has more to do with the bumbling & disarray at Camp Romney, they just can't decide what direction to go in cuz, CONSTANT FAIL!

 

Liberal_Stalwart71

(20,450 posts)
17. Dear Peggy, they won't spend money on ads; they'll spend it on GOTV
Wed Sep 19, 2012, 02:32 PM
Sep 2012

Methinks that's what they're saving the vast majority of their money on.

Why? Tens of millions of dollars spent on ads hasn't seem to put Robme at the top.

Therefore, the only remaining strategy is to suppress the vote while getting their supporters to the polls. It's the only thing they have left.

Tx4obama

(36,974 posts)
12. That is because the PACS backing Romney are spending TONS of money on ads.
Wed Sep 19, 2012, 01:58 AM
Sep 2012

A heck of a lot more republican PAC money than democratic PAC money so far.

Seen a graph on TV yesterday.

Kalidurga

(14,177 posts)
4. The debates will put the final nail in Romney's campaign coffin.
Tue Sep 18, 2012, 11:46 PM
Sep 2012

Romney won't be able to be multiple choice in the debates. He can lie, but those lies can be challenged on the spot. His temper is going to show. If there is any doubt see how fast he responded to the leaked video and how much in disarray he looked like he was in. He looked like a kid trying to hide evidence of a party while the parents were away. Then he smirked when he exited the stage like he really thought he pulled one off on the public. I think he should talk more though. Seems Obama gets a bump in the polls whenever Romney drops a load in his Magic Depends.

Sugarcoated

(7,721 posts)
7. I've been so looking forward to the debates
Wed Sep 19, 2012, 01:23 AM
Sep 2012

In the primaries Romney acted like a fool, but he was among bigger fools so, I guess he looked passable. Next to the President? It's gonna be fun TV. But the pundits keep insisting Mitt's a great debater . . .

Doctor Jack

(3,072 posts)
5. It is only a tie if you are a delusional republican
Wed Sep 19, 2012, 12:05 AM
Sep 2012

Or a newscaster that really wants to cash in on this election. Close elections bring in the ratings. If the election isn't close, just pretend a 5 point lead is a tie. Come on, chuck Todd needs a new speed boat

jzodda

(2,124 posts)
6. Recognizing that Romney is in trouble is fine
Wed Sep 19, 2012, 12:14 AM
Sep 2012

But only as long as it does not keep our people at home on November 4th thinking they don't have to vote b/c Romney's campaign imploded weeks before. We need to keep our people enthused. Of course Romney calling the poorer of us "Victims" certainly will keep our motivation up there.

Indpndnt

(2,391 posts)
8. I seriously doubt "a major terrorist attack could shift" voters towards Willard.
Wed Sep 19, 2012, 01:25 AM
Sep 2012

There's no way folks would believe he's suddenly, mystically, magically competent.

Sugarcoated

(7,721 posts)
9. People would rally around a President
Wed Sep 19, 2012, 01:29 AM
Sep 2012

or at least that's what the politicos say, and it makes sense to me.

bhikkhu

(10,714 posts)
11. "The collapse of the Eurozone or a major terrorist attack"
Wed Sep 19, 2012, 01:51 AM
Sep 2012

...which is about the only thing I worry about - the richest assholes in the world are weighing their options, whether their best bet is a "fuck the world into fear" play.

bluesbassman

(19,366 posts)
13. The only way I see Romney gaining ground is if the "true" Romney comes out...
Wed Sep 19, 2012, 01:59 AM
Sep 2012

and he's not the total fuck-up the real Romney is. Fortunately for America the real Romney is here to stay. In forty years of following politics, I've never seen the republicans turn on one of their own en masse like this. It just isn't done. To incur the ire of this many mainline righties takes a truly gifted buffoon.

Corgigal

(9,291 posts)
15. win people who voted for Obama in 2008
Wed Sep 19, 2012, 01:42 PM
Sep 2012

Might be time to get the goose out of the pen,not sure who will be cooking it though.

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