2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forum"This race is not a toss up. Romney is losing" by Jamelle Bouie at WP
This race is not a toss up. Romney is losingby Jamelle Bouie at WP
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/post/this-race-is-not-a-toss-up-romney-is-losing/2012/09/18/22807bb0-01a1-11e2-bbf0-e33b4ee2f0e8_blog.html
"SNIP................................
Yes, there are examples of candidates making rapid gains in September and October; after trailing in the weeks after the conventions, John Kerry caught up and tied George W. Bush in Gallups likely voter polling. If Romney could make a similar comeback, hed have a real shot at victory. But as Nate Cohn points out, Kerrys gains came from winning back Democratic voters who strayed from the flock. As Cohn puts it, Bushs lead was inflated by Kerry voters hanging out in the undecided column.
The same isnt true of Obamas current lead. According to Cohn, Obamas gains came from members of his coalition and traditionally Democratic groups if anything, he lost support among Republicans. Barring catastrophe, Obama will hold on to his supporters. Overall, both candidates are winning the vast majority of partisans and partisan-leaners, and theres simply not enough slack in the electorate for Romney to make rapid gains. Hell have to win people who voted for Obama in 2008, and right now, that doesnt seem likely.
Anything is possible, and so Romney could make a comeback. The collapse of the Eurozone or a major terrorist attack could shift the electoral balance toward Republicans. But in the absence of a dramatic event, Romneys odds are shrinking. The debates could make a difference, but the evidence suggests otherwise at best, debates can nudge a very small share of the public in close elections.
To put this another way, the last presidential candidate to reverse his fortunes at this stage of the game was Harry Truman, in 1948. Those are long odds, and frankly, Mitt Romney doesnt seem like the man to beat them.
.................................SNIP"
hollysmom
(5,946 posts)people see them for what they are and turn against Romney more.
applegrove
(118,577 posts)ads yet and Obama has.
Cha
(297,029 posts)Quack. A gopropaganda tool. The Obama Team have put out a lot of Ads to answer Mitt lies.
They will put out more Ads to counter all of Mitt's LIES.
K8-EEE
(15,667 posts)What a stupid strategy for them to hoard all this money until everyone's minds are made up and they are sick of/tuning out of the whole campaign. I honestly think the lack of ad placement has more to do with the bumbling & disarray at Camp Romney, they just can't decide what direction to go in cuz, CONSTANT FAIL!
Liberal_Stalwart71
(20,450 posts)Methinks that's what they're saving the vast majority of their money on.
Why? Tens of millions of dollars spent on ads hasn't seem to put Robme at the top.
Therefore, the only remaining strategy is to suppress the vote while getting their supporters to the polls. It's the only thing they have left.
Tx4obama
(36,974 posts)A heck of a lot more republican PAC money than democratic PAC money so far.
Seen a graph on TV yesterday.
bigdarryl
(13,190 posts)Kalidurga
(14,177 posts)Romney won't be able to be multiple choice in the debates. He can lie, but those lies can be challenged on the spot. His temper is going to show. If there is any doubt see how fast he responded to the leaked video and how much in disarray he looked like he was in. He looked like a kid trying to hide evidence of a party while the parents were away. Then he smirked when he exited the stage like he really thought he pulled one off on the public. I think he should talk more though. Seems Obama gets a bump in the polls whenever Romney drops a load in his Magic Depends.
Sugarcoated
(7,721 posts)In the primaries Romney acted like a fool, but he was among bigger fools so, I guess he looked passable. Next to the President? It's gonna be fun TV. But the pundits keep insisting Mitt's a great debater . . .
Kalidurga
(14,177 posts)If not, he is in trouble.
Doctor Jack
(3,072 posts)Or a newscaster that really wants to cash in on this election. Close elections bring in the ratings. If the election isn't close, just pretend a 5 point lead is a tie. Come on, chuck Todd needs a new speed boat
jzodda
(2,124 posts)But only as long as it does not keep our people at home on November 4th thinking they don't have to vote b/c Romney's campaign imploded weeks before. We need to keep our people enthused. Of course Romney calling the poorer of us "Victims" certainly will keep our motivation up there.
Liberal_Stalwart71
(20,450 posts)Indpndnt
(2,391 posts)There's no way folks would believe he's suddenly, mystically, magically competent.
Sugarcoated
(7,721 posts)or at least that's what the politicos say, and it makes sense to me.
bhikkhu
(10,714 posts)...which is about the only thing I worry about - the richest assholes in the world are weighing their options, whether their best bet is a "fuck the world into fear" play.
bluesbassman
(19,366 posts)and he's not the total fuck-up the real Romney is. Fortunately for America the real Romney is here to stay. In forty years of following politics, I've never seen the republicans turn on one of their own en masse like this. It just isn't done. To incur the ire of this many mainline righties takes a truly gifted buffoon.
Corgigal
(9,291 posts)Might be time to get the goose out of the pen,not sure who will be cooking it though.