2016 Postmortem

NRaleighLiberal

(60,014 posts) Wed Sep 19, 2012, 09:06 AM Sep 2012

Polls seem to be stabilizing a bit....a few tidbits from this morning

Looking at Polltracker - 48.6 to 45.4 (+3.2%) for Obama - 288 EVs (which is an improvement)

Looking at 538 - Nov 6 forecast - 50.9 to 48 (+2.9%) for Obama - over 300 EVs, 72.9% chance of winning - but looking at the Now Cast, that shifts to 90.7% chance of winning.

Real Clear politics - 48.1% to 45.3% (+2.8%) for Obama, 237 EVs currently, but that shifts to 332 in the No Toss Up view. Interesting to note that last year on this date, it was Obama 47.3, McCain 45.4 - so very similar - actually a tad better this year.

Huffington Post has it at 317 EVs for Obama with CO, IA and FL as toss ups.

538 uses Rasmussen as one of their base tracking polls...to me, that will skew it downward a bit for Obama. So clearly lots of caution being played.

Pertinent links used for the above info -

http://core.talkingpointsmemo.com/election/scoreboard

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/obama_vs_romney_compared_to_obama_vs_mccain.html

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/2012/romney-vs-obama-electoral-map?hw

3 replies

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Polls seem to be stabilizing a bit....a few tidbits from this morning (Original Post) NRaleighLiberal Sep 2012 OP

Speaking of Florida alone in this, just an observation. Very red territory yet First Lady Michelle monmouth Sep 2012 #1

agreed - most of the polls want to keep FL blue. OH too, and VA - NC seems to be the stubborn one.. NRaleighLiberal Sep 2012 #2

I think the polls will continue to stabilize the further we get away from the conventions davidpdx Sep 2012 #3

monmouth

(21,078 posts)

1. Speaking of Florida alone in this, just an observation. Very red territory yet First Lady Michelle

Reply to NRaleighLiberal (Original post)

Wed Sep 19, 2012, 09:12 AM

Sep 2012

Obama drew 10,000 people at one event and 8,000 at another. This indicates to me that Florida is definitely leaning Dem this year. I've been polled three times this week, few questions about the top of the ticket but mostly about Nelson and Mack. Nelson is quite far ahead at this point so I'm really feeling good about this.

NRaleighLiberal

(60,014 posts)

2. agreed - most of the polls want to keep FL blue. OH too, and VA - NC seems to be the stubborn one..

Reply to monmouth (Reply #1)

Wed Sep 19, 2012, 09:16 AM

Sep 2012

though I've not lost hope for seeing NC go blue, either.

davidpdx

(22,000 posts)

3. I think the polls will continue to stabilize the further we get away from the conventions

Reply to NRaleighLiberal (Original post)

Wed Sep 19, 2012, 09:49 AM

Sep 2012

until the first debates. Romney is going to have to lower expectations for the debates.

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