2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumPew National Poll: Obama leads 51-43 among likely voters
Pew is one of the best:
Obamas overall advantage he leads 51% to 42% among registered voters does not narrow significantly when looking only at those most likely to vote. Among 2,192 likely voters, Obama leads Romney, 51% to 43%.
http://www.people-press.org/2012/09/19/obama-ahead-with-stronger-support-better-image-and-lead-on-most-issues/
WI_DEM
(33,497 posts)Overall interest in the 2012 election is not as high as it was at this point in the 2008 campaign, with a similar decline among both Democrats and Republicans. But the dropoff in engagement is most noticeable among younger Americans. Just 48% of voters younger than 30 have given a lot of thought to the 2012 election, down from 65% at this point four years ago. The share of young people who say they are closely following election news is down by about half (from 35% to 18%).
By contrast, there has been no falloff in engagement among African American voters. Engagement among black voters, which was higher in September 2008 than in previous elections dating to 1992, remains just as high going into the final weeks of the 2012 campaign.
The survey finds that overall patterns of voter support for Obama and Romney have changed little over the course of the campaign. Obama holds a 56% to 37% lead among women registered voters, but only runs about even among men (47% Romney, 46% Obama). Voters younger than 30 continue to support Obama by a wide margin (59% to 33%). Voters 30 to 49 favor Obama by a 52% to 41% margin; older voters are more evenly divided.
Romney draws broad support from white evangelical Protestants. Race and ethnicity remain key correlates of candidate support: 92% of black voters support Obama, as do 69% of Latinos, compared with 43% of white non-Hispanics. Among whites, Romney runs better among white men and white working class voters than among women and white college graduates.
Liberal_Stalwart71
(20,450 posts)and the Republicans want us to think the election is in the bag, then come out in the end with hordes of money and GOTV while we're standing mouths agape?
WI_DEM
(33,497 posts)In 2008, Most of the final polls had Obama up by 5-11 points and it didn't hurt turn-out.
JRLeft
(7,010 posts)Liberal_Stalwart71
(20,450 posts)the Republicans and Mitt Romney. At least, that's my conspiracy theory. I think this is feigned outrage against Romney on the right. Should he improve, or they steal the election, they can come back and use this period thwart claims of fraud: "We thought Romney was going to lose, but he's the Comeback Kid."
Thrill
(19,178 posts)without the MSM insisting on it being a horse race