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Chichiri

(4,667 posts)
Tue Mar 8, 2016, 11:02 PM Mar 2016

You'll notice that nobody on the Hillary side . . .

. . . is accusing anyone of fraud, or talking about missing ballots, or engaging in conspiracy theories, or anything of that nature. We're taking it on the chin and moving on.

We're also analyzing what went wrong in Michigan -- not with the Hillary campaign, but with pretty much everything we thought about polling and election modeling. As Nate Silver mentioned, there hasn't been a primary error this big since Mondale-Hart in New Hampshire in 1984 (Mondale was ahead by 17 points, lost to Gary Hart anyway -- and, of course, went on to win the nomination). So whatever this is, it's literally a once-in-a-generation event. It's not systemic, as evidenced by the majority of calls being correct.

Finally, we're looking at what we can learn from this, and redoubling our GOTV efforts. As our lady says, take nothing and no one for granted.

Meanwhile, enjoy piling on the schadenfreude.

21 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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You'll notice that nobody on the Hillary side . . . (Original Post) Chichiri Mar 2016 OP
n/t cherokeeprogressive Mar 2016 #1
Well actually there are threads splaining this as a republican crossover problem. Warren Stupidity Mar 2016 #2
It could be, although only 3% of voters self-reported as Republican. Chichiri Mar 2016 #5
Nah, the numbers don't seem to bear that out. Codeine Mar 2016 #13
I didn't say it was credible I said it was being pushed as the splain Clinton's performance failure. Warren Stupidity Mar 2016 #16
I gotcha, just being agreeable. nt Codeine Mar 2016 #17
Not over yet by a long shot but perhaps not lying so damn much is a start? nt nc4bo Mar 2016 #3
We're also not taking our frustration out on Bernie. Or any of you. nt Chichiri Mar 2016 #6
Why is Hillary's campaign so bloody negative? Why does it resort to gutter politics? nc4bo Mar 2016 #7
I . . . I don't even. nt Chichiri Mar 2016 #10
I know. nt nc4bo Mar 2016 #12
Well if you take most of your Gwhittey Mar 2016 #14
Good post ... salinsky Mar 2016 #4
It's early. Give them time. If Bernie wins, they will work throig morningfog Mar 2016 #8
Umm ... enjoy piling on the schadenfreude? One of your own started out with that ... ebayfool Mar 2016 #9
Why should they? Her supporters control the primaries almost everywhere democrattotheend Mar 2016 #11
+1 nt NCTraveler Mar 2016 #15
Well, this could go either way. Hillary could win. Bernie could win CoffeeCat Mar 2016 #18
+1 nt Chichiri Mar 2016 #19
They're still in hiding after all the "poll baiting" tabasco Mar 2016 #20
I also don't see any Sanders supporters calling Clinton a racist, or taunting her supporters Doctor_J Mar 2016 #21

Chichiri

(4,667 posts)
5. It could be, although only 3% of voters self-reported as Republican.
Tue Mar 8, 2016, 11:05 PM
Mar 2016

It could also be Bernie's attack on Hillary on the trade deals, which hurt a lot of people.

 

Codeine

(25,586 posts)
13. Nah, the numbers don't seem to bear that out.
Tue Mar 8, 2016, 11:15 PM
Mar 2016

Bernie got his vote out. He keeps doing that he's definitely got an outside shot at this.

 

Warren Stupidity

(48,181 posts)
16. I didn't say it was credible I said it was being pushed as the splain Clinton's performance failure.
Tue Mar 8, 2016, 11:20 PM
Mar 2016

nc4bo

(17,651 posts)
7. Why is Hillary's campaign so bloody negative? Why does it resort to gutter politics?
Tue Mar 8, 2016, 11:07 PM
Mar 2016

What is the purpose of smearing the other candidate?

These are the things that I. Just. Do. Not. Get.

 

Gwhittey

(1,377 posts)
14. Well if you take most of your
Tue Mar 8, 2016, 11:17 PM
Mar 2016

platform from the other candidate you have to go after him other ways. Like race baiting or using swiftboat tactics. Bush would got killed by Kerry if the Vietnam thing was not just flipped 180. Same with African Americans for Clinton. If they had not of spread the BS and made his Civil Rights Activism all his life into a oh he can't relate to black issues because all his supporters are young white males(wink wink). The Bush Karl Rove Swiftboat thing with Kerry drove me away from the GOP because as a veteran it disgusted me. And the Race Baiting HRC camp has done plus why she did it in 2008 against Obama has drove me from ever supporting her.

It is just a good thing Obama was African American or he would of got killed by her, her biggest mistake was the hard white workers of America comment. She thought it would get her white vote but it did opposite and drive whites to Obama.

 

morningfog

(18,115 posts)
8. It's early. Give them time. If Bernie wins, they will work throig
Tue Mar 8, 2016, 11:07 PM
Mar 2016

The grieving stages, including denial and blame.

democrattotheend

(11,605 posts)
11. Why should they? Her supporters control the primaries almost everywhere
Tue Mar 8, 2016, 11:12 PM
Mar 2016

She has so much more support from the party elite, including those who set the rules and administer these elections, that it is hard to see how Sanders supporters could be responsible for missing ballots, disenfranchisement, etc. Honestly, given that Michigan is controlled by Republicans I don't think either Democratic candidate could really be responsible for some of the shenanigans. To the extent heavily-black areas are having problems at the polls, it's probably because Republicans set it up that way to suppress the black vote in the general. At least having these problems in the primaries calls attention to it so that hopefully it can be brought to the public's attention and rectified before November.

CoffeeCat

(24,411 posts)
18. Well, this could go either way. Hillary could win. Bernie could win
Tue Mar 8, 2016, 11:30 PM
Mar 2016

But I have to say--Hillary supporters were in rare form this week.

Ohhhh...there are so many posts that I could post right now--Clinton supporters insisting that Bernie would be trounced and mocking him remaining in the race.

And the endless polls from RCP! Holy buckets.

While we're all in a rare state of humility/being humble--maybe we could all agree that Real Clear Politics is bunk. I get so exhausted having the same conversation about how bunk their numbers are. Many HRC were posting yesterday and today, that Clinton was ahead by 21+ points according to RCP. I tried suggesting that polls in states with impending primaries change so wildly the closer you get to the race. However, RCP factors polls that are a few weeks old (sometimes even older) and factors them into the avg.

I think RCP should be taken with a truckload of salt. It's one factor. However, to see those polls posted over and over and over and over, it really annoying. And it's not just because she's winning them. It's because they're unreliable bunk.

Ok, I've said my peace.

Best of luck to all of us. May the winner not be too cocky! It could be either camp!

 

tabasco

(22,974 posts)
20. They're still in hiding after all the "poll baiting"
Tue Mar 8, 2016, 11:44 PM
Mar 2016

You seem nice but you know it's true of some of your fellow Clinton supporters.

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