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Michigan has been CALLED. (Original Post) Agschmid Mar 2016 OP
... Cal Carpenter Mar 2016 #1
Thank you! CaliforniaPeggy Mar 2016 #2
Based on what's out I think they are just afraid to call it. Agschmid Mar 2016 #4
That could very well be. CaliforniaPeggy Mar 2016 #10
Genuinely hurts to lose that one. Codeine Mar 2016 #3
Yup. Agschmid Mar 2016 #7
Too close to call still, I think. JonLeibowitz Mar 2016 #5
Observation on public polling nadinbrzezinski Mar 2016 #30
This pollster called it. He predicted Sanders 53, Clinton 46 (Maybe we pay attention him now!) CoffeeCat Mar 2016 #32
Yea, but it doesn't count...it's a weird state shaped like a glove. johnnyrocket Mar 2016 #6
No it counts. Agschmid Mar 2016 #9
Ok, just projecting HRC supporters reasoning... johnnyrocket Mar 2016 #13
As opposed to Clinton only wins Southern states? mythology Mar 2016 #33
Helllloooo!?!! Don't forget the UP! Cal Carpenter Mar 2016 #14
Ah right...so then it DOES count! johnnyrocket Mar 2016 #20
It always counts. Agschmid Mar 2016 #36
I'm almost surprised it hasn't been called yet, actually Cal Carpenter Mar 2016 #8
Too many votes outstanding in Wayne County. I hope Bernie wins but it's still too close to call MillennialDem Mar 2016 #18
I flippin' LOVE it's so close! babylonsister Mar 2016 #11
I think a lot of Clinton supporters have alot of apologizing to do. Uglystick Mar 2016 #12
Well I'm sure some do, but I'd suggest just moving on. Agschmid Mar 2016 #15
I'd prefer sending that crow over to 538... JonLeibowitz Mar 2016 #16
Classiest post I've seen all day. cherokeeprogressive Mar 2016 #17
Thanks, I have my moments. Agschmid Mar 2016 #19
It's a long primary. Uglystick Mar 2016 #23
I look forward to your long years of constructive contributions to DU Orrex Mar 2016 #34
The next question .. How will this affect Ohio? Motown_Johnny Mar 2016 #21
It certainly puts it into play, and discounts any current polling. Agschmid Mar 2016 #24
I think Bernie will hold on. Adrahil Mar 2016 #22
allBernie needs is a little great lakes wind at his back to carry him through to the Presidency putitinD Mar 2016 #27
Congrats Bernie supporters! This Hillary supporter appreciates a good contest, and knows the work anotherproletariat Mar 2016 #25
your graciousness defuses my strident posture AtomicKitten Mar 2016 #26
Give it a day, I'm sure we will be back at it. Agschmid Mar 2016 #28
whew AtomicKitten Mar 2016 #29
Congratulations to Bernie supporters MSMITH33156 Mar 2016 #31
It's certainly been an exciting day! Starry Messenger Mar 2016 #35
Just a reminder... I called it first :) Agschmid Mar 2016 #37
You got the SCOOP! Cal Carpenter Mar 2016 #38
Yes I did! Agschmid Mar 2016 #39
 

Codeine

(25,586 posts)
3. Genuinely hurts to lose that one.
Tue Mar 8, 2016, 11:28 PM
Mar 2016

On to the next, then. Sanders certainly did a number on expectations, that's for damned sure. Hats off to Bernie and his supporters!

JonLeibowitz

(6,282 posts)
5. Too close to call still, I think.
Tue Mar 8, 2016, 11:29 PM
Mar 2016

However, this was a pretty big disaster for public polling no matter how the race ultimately turns out. I'm so happy that Nate Silver is in a big hole tonight.

 

nadinbrzezinski

(154,021 posts)
30. Observation on public polling
Tue Mar 8, 2016, 11:44 PM
Mar 2016

since 2000 it has been remarkably less precise.

It starts to get precise 24 hours before the actual contest. Why i take it with less seriousness than I used to.

CoffeeCat

(24,411 posts)
32. This pollster called it. He predicted Sanders 53, Clinton 46 (Maybe we pay attention him now!)
Tue Mar 8, 2016, 11:48 PM
Mar 2016

I've heard that he's been extremely accurate!

It’s a bit unsettling to go against the grain with this forecast. As far as I know, every outlet is projecting a Clinton win tomorrow in both Michigan and Mississippi.

The Sanders campaign must be doing something remarkable in Michigan right now, because the upswing in Sanders popularity among my data sources is undeniable. I am seeing levels of interest in Bernie Sanders in Michigan similar to that of Colorado, Oklahoma, Kansas, and Nebraska. This, along with Michigan’s relatively normal demographic makeup, leads me to personally believe that he does have a chance. It leads my model to estimate that he will win there. Hillary leads every conventional poll, however, which makes me skeptical of these numbers.

Bernie Sanders will be lucky to get above 20% in Mississippi, but I do believe that if he doesn’t win Michigan, the final results will be very close. Here are the numbers:

numbers at link:

https://tylerpedigo.com/2016/03/08/michigan-mississippi-democratic-primary-projections/

 

mythology

(9,527 posts)
33. As opposed to Clinton only wins Southern states?
Tue Mar 8, 2016, 11:51 PM
Mar 2016

You aren't paying attention if you think excuse making goes only one way.

Cal Carpenter

(4,959 posts)
14. Helllloooo!?!! Don't forget the UP!
Tue Mar 8, 2016, 11:32 PM
Mar 2016

It's the other hand at an awkward angle above the glove.

And it's a mitten, by the way. Not the same as a glove.

Cal Carpenter

(4,959 posts)
8. I'm almost surprised it hasn't been called yet, actually
Tue Mar 8, 2016, 11:29 PM
Mar 2016

With this high of a percent reporting and a solid 5 point spread, I would think someone would take the chance of being the first to call it.

Imagine that, a scoop!

 

MillennialDem

(2,367 posts)
18. Too many votes outstanding in Wayne County. I hope Bernie wins but it's still too close to call
Tue Mar 8, 2016, 11:34 PM
Mar 2016

If Wayne County breaks exactly the same as it already has (with the same amount of votes outstanding) Hillary will eek out a win (provided Bernie doesn't have a massive amount of votes in Kent).

 

Uglystick

(88 posts)
12. I think a lot of Clinton supporters have alot of apologizing to do.
Tue Mar 8, 2016, 11:30 PM
Mar 2016

Good thing DU Cafe has this especially whipped up for tonight.

Agschmid

(28,749 posts)
15. Well I'm sure some do, but I'd suggest just moving on.
Tue Mar 8, 2016, 11:32 PM
Mar 2016

It's been a rough primary demanding apologies about something we all get emotional over isn't going to get us anywhere.

 

Uglystick

(88 posts)
23. It's a long primary.
Tue Mar 8, 2016, 11:37 PM
Mar 2016

I'm ready to bump fists and move on and get the votes out for the March 15th states, that I bet Bernie can steal with a few upsets. You know that is possible, after tonight.

 

Motown_Johnny

(22,308 posts)
21. The next question .. How will this affect Ohio?
Tue Mar 8, 2016, 11:36 PM
Mar 2016


All of a sudden Bernie looks like he could have another big win fairly soon.





Agschmid

(28,749 posts)
24. It certainly puts it into play, and discounts any current polling.
Tue Mar 8, 2016, 11:38 PM
Mar 2016

We literally have no idea where either candidate stands.

 

Adrahil

(13,340 posts)
22. I think Bernie will hold on.
Tue Mar 8, 2016, 11:37 PM
Mar 2016

It's possible Clinton pulls it out in a squeaker, but I think it's more likely he'll win by 1-2%. He'll still lag behind in delegates today, but it makes next Tuesday very interesting.

 

anotherproletariat

(1,446 posts)
25. Congrats Bernie supporters! This Hillary supporter appreciates a good contest, and knows the work
Tue Mar 8, 2016, 11:39 PM
Mar 2016

you have all put in!

MSMITH33156

(879 posts)
31. Congratulations to Bernie supporters
Tue Mar 8, 2016, 11:45 PM
Mar 2016

I think Bernie hangs on, but even if he doesn't, he still won the night.

And pretty cool that he is scrambling to make a speech now because even he didn't expect to be this close.

This is why polls aren't votes. Congratulations! Enjoy the night!

Starry Messenger

(32,342 posts)
35. It's certainly been an exciting day!
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 12:00 AM
Mar 2016

We need lots of people out and energized. It's good for the whole process.

Latest Discussions»Retired Forums»2016 Postmortem»Michigan has been CALLED.