2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumMichigan has been CALLED.
By me, nice job Senator Sanders, and his supporters. That was a big win.Cal Carpenter
(4,959 posts)CaliforniaPeggy
(149,534 posts)61% reporting according to the New York Times...
It's still pretty close........
Agschmid
(28,749 posts)CaliforniaPeggy
(149,534 posts)Codeine
(25,586 posts)On to the next, then. Sanders certainly did a number on expectations, that's for damned sure. Hats off to Bernie and his supporters!
JonLeibowitz
(6,282 posts)However, this was a pretty big disaster for public polling no matter how the race ultimately turns out. I'm so happy that Nate Silver is in a big hole tonight.
nadinbrzezinski
(154,021 posts)since 2000 it has been remarkably less precise.
It starts to get precise 24 hours before the actual contest. Why i take it with less seriousness than I used to.
CoffeeCat
(24,411 posts)I've heard that he's been extremely accurate!
Its a bit unsettling to go against the grain with this forecast. As far as I know, every outlet is projecting a Clinton win tomorrow in both Michigan and Mississippi.
The Sanders campaign must be doing something remarkable in Michigan right now, because the upswing in Sanders popularity among my data sources is undeniable. I am seeing levels of interest in Bernie Sanders in Michigan similar to that of Colorado, Oklahoma, Kansas, and Nebraska. This, along with Michigans relatively normal demographic makeup, leads me to personally believe that he does have a chance. It leads my model to estimate that he will win there. Hillary leads every conventional poll, however, which makes me skeptical of these numbers.
Bernie Sanders will be lucky to get above 20% in Mississippi, but I do believe that if he doesnt win Michigan, the final results will be very close. Here are the numbers:
numbers at link:
https://tylerpedigo.com/2016/03/08/michigan-mississippi-democratic-primary-projections/
johnnyrocket
(1,773 posts)Agschmid
(28,749 posts)johnnyrocket
(1,773 posts)...for the spectacular upset!
mythology
(9,527 posts)You aren't paying attention if you think excuse making goes only one way.
Cal Carpenter
(4,959 posts)It's the other hand at an awkward angle above the glove.
And it's a mitten, by the way. Not the same as a glove.
johnnyrocket
(1,773 posts)GO BERNIE!
Agschmid
(28,749 posts)Cal Carpenter
(4,959 posts)With this high of a percent reporting and a solid 5 point spread, I would think someone would take the chance of being the first to call it.
Imagine that, a scoop!
MillennialDem
(2,367 posts)If Wayne County breaks exactly the same as it already has (with the same amount of votes outstanding) Hillary will eek out a win (provided Bernie doesn't have a massive amount of votes in Kent).
babylonsister
(171,036 posts)Right now, I don't care who wins. This is big.
(PS, I do care... )
Uglystick
(88 posts)Good thing DU Cafe has this especially whipped up for tonight.
Agschmid
(28,749 posts)It's been a rough primary demanding apologies about something we all get emotional over isn't going to get us anywhere.
JonLeibowitz
(6,282 posts)cherokeeprogressive
(24,853 posts)Probably in weeks.
I'll move on with you.
Agschmid
(28,749 posts)Uglystick
(88 posts)I'm ready to bump fists and move on and get the votes out for the March 15th states, that I bet Bernie can steal with a few upsets. You know that is possible, after tonight.
Orrex
(63,172 posts)Motown_Johnny
(22,308 posts)All of a sudden Bernie looks like he could have another big win fairly soon.
Agschmid
(28,749 posts)We literally have no idea where either candidate stands.
Adrahil
(13,340 posts)It's possible Clinton pulls it out in a squeaker, but I think it's more likely he'll win by 1-2%. He'll still lag behind in delegates today, but it makes next Tuesday very interesting.
putitinD
(1,551 posts)anotherproletariat
(1,446 posts)you have all put in!
AtomicKitten
(46,585 posts)you bastard!
cheers
Agschmid
(28,749 posts)AtomicKitten
(46,585 posts)MSMITH33156
(879 posts)I think Bernie hangs on, but even if he doesn't, he still won the night.
And pretty cool that he is scrambling to make a speech now because even he didn't expect to be this close.
This is why polls aren't votes. Congratulations! Enjoy the night!
Starry Messenger
(32,342 posts)We need lots of people out and energized. It's good for the whole process.