2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumDid the polls take into account that it was an open primary? Anyone know?
This might be the most fascinating discrepancy in history.
Most of the polls had Hillary winning Michigan.
When it came to the raw vote, she won Dems, but lost independents.
Did the polls take into account that it was an open primary? Or did they just poll Dems?
Perhaps that's why there's such a large discrepancy.
Congrats to Sanders. Certainly an impressive victory.
Cleita
(75,480 posts)The general election is going to be open too.
Cali_Democrat
(30,439 posts)Cleita
(75,480 posts)that was no longer etched in stone.
Cali_Democrat
(30,439 posts)HuffPo has a good link where they link to the raw polling numbers from the organizations.
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-michigan-presidential-democratic-primary
Lizzie Poppet
(10,164 posts)Mine, for example. Our Republican primary is open, and I used to vote in it as an independent, always for the least electable candidate.
Re-registered Democrat to vote for Bernie, though...
Cleita
(75,480 posts)states with the most voters like my state California.
valerief
(53,235 posts)SheilaT
(23,156 posts)well have underpolled younger voters.
They also don't capture the way that as people learn about him, the more likely they are to understand he is a vastly better choice, than Hillary, and vote for him.
The other thing that matters a great deal is that to win the general election, a candidate needs to pull in a lot of the independent voters. A lot. Hillary simply doesn't connect very well with them. And THAT is something that will matter in the long run.
cherokeeprogressive
(24,853 posts)Cali_Democrat
(30,439 posts)I don't recall exactly, but I think he might have.
Remember, there are more Dems than Reps.
bigwillq
(72,790 posts)Obama won Is 52-44-4 in 2008
Kalidurga
(14,177 posts)ibegurpard
(16,685 posts)With Independent voters than Obama did in 2012. And she will not generate enough enthusiasm in Democrats to make up for it.
jillan
(39,451 posts)Beacool
(30,244 posts)Beacool
(30,244 posts)If it's an open primary, and they only polled Democrats, the results would have been skewed.
unc70
(6,095 posts)Most polls ask about voter registration and about how likely one is to vote and in which primary; then which candidate.
The most likely screwup involves their assumptions in their likely voter model. Pollsters are often skeptical that voters will actually vote.