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Cali_Democrat

(30,439 posts)
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 01:17 AM Mar 2016

Did the polls take into account that it was an open primary? Anyone know?

This might be the most fascinating discrepancy in history.

Most of the polls had Hillary winning Michigan.

When it came to the raw vote, she won Dems, but lost independents.

Did the polls take into account that it was an open primary? Or did they just poll Dems?

Perhaps that's why there's such a large discrepancy.

Congrats to Sanders. Certainly an impressive victory.

17 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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Did the polls take into account that it was an open primary? Anyone know? (Original Post) Cali_Democrat Mar 2016 OP
And this is important why? Cleita Mar 2016 #1
Because I'm trying to understand why the polls were so off. nt Cali_Democrat Mar 2016 #4
The polls haven't evolved. They were using a method of sampling Cleita Mar 2016 #8
I'm digging into some of the Michigan polls right now. Cali_Democrat Mar 2016 #11
But most of the rest of the primaries aren't. Lizzie Poppet Mar 2016 #6
That doesn't work in the states that have the most delagates in Cleita Mar 2016 #9
Mississippi was an open primary, too. nt valerief Mar 2016 #2
They probably just did a poor job of polling, and may SheilaT Mar 2016 #3
Can a candidate win the GE without independent voters? cherokeeprogressive Mar 2016 #5
Didn't Obama lose Independents in 2012? Cali_Democrat Mar 2016 #7
According to Wiki, Romney won Is 50-45-5 in 2012 bigwillq Mar 2016 #10
2016 Independents are leaning more liberal now though. Kalidurga Mar 2016 #13
Hillary will do worse ibegurpard Mar 2016 #14
Congrats to Hillary for Mississippi. jillan Mar 2016 #12
Thank you and to you too for Sanders' win in MI. Beacool Mar 2016 #16
I think that's where the polling failed. Beacool Mar 2016 #15
Most polls include independents unc70 Mar 2016 #17
 

Lizzie Poppet

(10,164 posts)
6. But most of the rest of the primaries aren't.
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 01:24 AM
Mar 2016

Mine, for example. Our Republican primary is open, and I used to vote in it as an independent, always for the least electable candidate.

Re-registered Democrat to vote for Bernie, though...

Cleita

(75,480 posts)
9. That doesn't work in the states that have the most delagates in
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 01:29 AM
Mar 2016

states with the most voters like my state California.

 

SheilaT

(23,156 posts)
3. They probably just did a poor job of polling, and may
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 01:22 AM
Mar 2016

well have underpolled younger voters.

They also don't capture the way that as people learn about him, the more likely they are to understand he is a vastly better choice, than Hillary, and vote for him.

The other thing that matters a great deal is that to win the general election, a candidate needs to pull in a lot of the independent voters. A lot. Hillary simply doesn't connect very well with them. And THAT is something that will matter in the long run.

 

Cali_Democrat

(30,439 posts)
7. Didn't Obama lose Independents in 2012?
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 01:25 AM
Mar 2016

I don't recall exactly, but I think he might have.

Remember, there are more Dems than Reps.

ibegurpard

(16,685 posts)
14. Hillary will do worse
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 01:33 AM
Mar 2016

With Independent voters than Obama did in 2012. And she will not generate enough enthusiasm in Democrats to make up for it.

Beacool

(30,244 posts)
15. I think that's where the polling failed.
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 01:35 AM
Mar 2016

If it's an open primary, and they only polled Democrats, the results would have been skewed.

unc70

(6,095 posts)
17. Most polls include independents
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 01:50 AM
Mar 2016

Most polls ask about voter registration and about how likely one is to vote and in which primary; then which candidate.

The most likely screwup involves their assumptions in their likely voter model. Pollsters are often skeptical that voters will actually vote.

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