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Duer's, I would advise IGNORING Nate Silver. (Original Post) PM Martin Mar 2016 OP
who is Nate Silver ? olddots Mar 2016 #1
I think his new name should be Nate Tin litlbilly Mar 2016 #2
Well, in all fairness... Scootaloo Mar 2016 #3
You are correct. He uses flawed polling data and he receives flawed results. LonePirate Mar 2016 #6
That's because he is just another paid Hillashill. mhatrw Mar 2016 #4
I definitely ignored him this go around. Cleita Mar 2016 #5
Don't ignore him.... MellowDem Mar 2016 #7
Good luck, though I should tell you I strongly support Hillary. PM Martin Mar 2016 #8
 

Scootaloo

(25,699 posts)
3. Well, in all fairness...
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 01:31 AM
Mar 2016

All he really does is compile other people's data and make projections on that. If that data is flawed, what he outputs will be flawed, too. It's a polling thing, not specifically a Nate Silver thing. Maybe he ought to stick to running the numbers at the ponies or whatever his main gig is. At least until polling techniques catch up with technology and demographics.

LonePirate

(13,386 posts)
6. You are correct. He uses flawed polling data and he receives flawed results.
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 01:39 AM
Mar 2016

Perhaps not for the primaries but I suspect for the general he will consider other variables or he might apply restrictions or weights or other changes to the data he uses.

What he does is not magic and it never has been. The fools in the press simply are bad at math and don't invest the time he has to compile the results.

We're definitely witnessing first hand the reason why Gallup stated they were essentially abandoning polling this cycle.

MellowDem

(5,018 posts)
7. Don't ignore him....
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 01:45 AM
Mar 2016

he does great statistical analysis. He's a poll aggregator, if the polls are way off he will be as well, which does happen, and causes pollsters to re-examine how they poll. Michigan was kinda strange in that there was no 2008 primary to go off of for modeling and before that it was Caucasus.

He's been very accurate so far this election. He predicted the 2008 and 2012 elections very well.

And his analysis for why the polls got it so wrong will be interesting reading as well. You'll want him as a resource for the general election too.

I'm a stats junkie and a Sanders supporter. I know it sucks seeing the hard math being against my candidate, but the facts are the facts, and I'm ok with it. I definitely hope Sanders is able to pull more upsets and show some of these polls as wrong, but we'll see!

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