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Red Oak

(697 posts)
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 01:40 AM Mar 2016

Things are about to get tougher for Clinton

Take it with a grain or two of salt, but also from Nate Silver

"One reminder about the Democratic calendar: Although there are a lot of reasonably good Clinton states on March 15 — according to both polls and demographics — we then have a stretch of states that look quite strong for Sanders. These include Idaho, Utah, Arizona, Alaska, Washington, Hawaii, Wisconsin and Wyoming, all of which vote from March 22 to April 9.

So if Clinton underperforms her polls on March 15 in states such as Ohio as she did tonight in Michigan — and pollsters probably ought to be checking their turnout models carefully after tonight — she could have a really long few weeks ahead, even though Sanders’s delegate math remains highly challenging."

35 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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Things are about to get tougher for Clinton (Original Post) Red Oak Mar 2016 OP
That's why Hillary campaign has been telling everyone March is the end. Cheese Sandwich Mar 2016 #1
The math is bad for him. TTUBatfan2008 Mar 2016 #16
LOL madokie Mar 2016 #19
Can't stand Clinton TTUBatfan2008 Mar 2016 #20
That is not the Reality rather thats called fantasy madokie Mar 2016 #22
You do understand that 'the math' is just a term of art meaning 'conventional wisdom' and that Bluenorthwest Mar 2016 #24
^This! ^ eom Betty Karlson Mar 2016 #34
Going into last night... TTUBatfan2008 Mar 2016 #35
Nate Silver! BeyondGeography Mar 2016 #2
It is happening at a slower pace nadinbrzezinski Mar 2016 #3
If BS has more regular delegates by the convention and it's thrown to HRC... Raster Mar 2016 #5
That is why I mentioned 1968 nadinbrzezinski Mar 2016 #6
Obama should have been a wake-up call. Raster Mar 2016 #9
The supers are a non-issue BeyondGeography Mar 2016 #8
You are correct, I know they are not nadinbrzezinski Mar 2016 #10
It was a great win BeyondGeography Mar 2016 #11
Yup, the nature of the race changed nadinbrzezinski Mar 2016 #12
Hill really has no way to narrow his margins, as you put it madokie Mar 2016 #21
Don't get cocky now...It's called competing for votes BeyondGeography Mar 2016 #23
BREAKING NEWS: Bernie Sanders Has Now Won 9 of the Last 10 States Outside of the South! mhatrw Mar 2016 #4
Hillary's not gonna win the South anyway... hell, she'll prolly be damaged goods by the time this is all over... InAbLuEsTaTe Mar 2016 #28
Hillary will likely lose ground between March 22 and April 9. Cali_Democrat Mar 2016 #7
Mississippi only 220,560 Democrats in total showed up to vote. If that's her energetic base it is Bluenorthwest Mar 2016 #26
Her on top of the bill = GOP landslide. Betty Karlson Mar 2016 #32
kick'n'rec (nt) pat_k Mar 2016 #13
Maybe DWS should restart the DEM college campus registration drive -- oops, that NCjack Mar 2016 #14
Not unless Happenstance24 Mar 2016 #15
Bernie wins somewhat more than a split of delegates, John Poet Mar 2016 #17
I cannot do the delegate count story until tomorrow nadinbrzezinski Mar 2016 #18
She needed to put this away before the 15th. Joe the Revelator Mar 2016 #25
we said that this would happen dana_b Mar 2016 #27
Got that right dana! InAbLuEsTaTe Mar 2016 #29
Got that right dana! InAbLuEsTaTe Mar 2016 #30
That little overentitled piece of corporation-coddling hasn't seen anything yet. Betty Karlson Mar 2016 #31
Yes Betty, the more Hillary loses in the weeks and months ahead, the more scrutiny she'll be subject to... InAbLuEsTaTe Mar 2016 #33
 

Cheese Sandwich

(9,086 posts)
1. That's why Hillary campaign has been telling everyone March is the end.
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 01:46 AM
Mar 2016

If it was really the end, they wouldn't have to come out and tell us that.

It's not the end, they just want everyone to think that. March is still going to be very tough for Bernie, but it gets more favorable later.

TTUBatfan2008

(3,623 posts)
16. The math is bad for him.
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 03:21 AM
Mar 2016

Can't win a nomination by losing the South by 40-50 points. Just a matter of when, not if at this point.

madokie

(51,076 posts)
19. LOL
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 03:24 AM
Mar 2016

keep on sticking to that and weep
Bernie is on the rise and rising fast

Oh yes I about forgot to add. Hide and watch

TTUBatfan2008

(3,623 posts)
20. Can't stand Clinton
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 03:28 AM
Mar 2016

Sanders has a lot of good ideas and seems a lot more honorable than the Cluntons. But the math is not on his side. I accept the reality even if I strongly dislike the situation.

madokie

(51,076 posts)
22. That is not the Reality rather thats called fantasy
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 03:32 AM
Mar 2016

that you're going with, sorry
You really can't pick your realm of reality and expect it to be so. In this case its not proving to be at all.

 

Bluenorthwest

(45,319 posts)
24. You do understand that 'the math' is just a term of art meaning 'conventional wisdom' and that
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 08:37 AM
Mar 2016

'the math' currently is standing red faced having just made wildly inaccurate predictions about Michigan with enormous certainty and not a hint of hesitation. 'The math' cited 1968, 1980 but failed to look out the window to see if it was raining today....

Masses of delegates are still out there. And Hillary's big, giant Mississippi victory was a primary with less than 250,000 people showing up to vote for her. Where, I ask you, is the excitement for her? I was told the South was devoted to her but her turnout has been abysmal, particularly when presented as her Ticket to the WH. Her strongest States should show some high numbers instead of a resignation of interest.....

TTUBatfan2008

(3,623 posts)
35. Going into last night...
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 09:56 AM
Mar 2016

...he needed to win 66% of the pledged delegates the rest of the way. Since he didn't get 66% of them last night, it means he needs an even higher percentage going forward. This is not a matter of conventional wisdom, it's just the math. I hate it, believe me. I don't want a corporate candidate like Clinton as the nominee.

The math is strongly in her favor. It doesn't help Bernie that the party bosses are completely in the Clinton camp. Even if he manages to win 70% of the remaining pledged delegates, I think the party elites will give it to Clinton.

BeyondGeography

(39,345 posts)
2. Nate Silver!
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 01:46 AM
Mar 2016

Just kidding.

Hillary must be having a flashback. A similar stretch of primaries enabled Obama to defeat her, the big difference of course is she goes into it with a 200-delegate lead whereas, Obama, thanks to the South, already had a lead. Still don't see how Bernie does this.

 

nadinbrzezinski

(154,021 posts)
3. It is happening at a slower pace
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 01:47 AM
Mar 2016

but it is the same pattern.

And how he does it., a few supers already are reconsidering. If he keeps winning more will. And he has the majority of regular delegates by the convention... they either give it to the winner of the vote, or they face a 1968 scenario.

That is how he does it.

I am saying this after sitting down and really doing a lot of back of the envelope math.

For the record, though she is getting more delegates, (yes that is the truth) this is also perception, and Sanders did over perform in MISS... it was supposed to be a shut out in delegate count.

Raster

(20,998 posts)
5. If BS has more regular delegates by the convention and it's thrown to HRC...
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 02:01 AM
Mar 2016

...through the machinations of DWS and the DLC, the party will burn, and I don't mean Bern. I mean the Democratic Party as we know it would be toast.

 

nadinbrzezinski

(154,021 posts)
6. That is why I mentioned 1968
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 02:04 AM
Mar 2016

from a Political Reporter perspective, two brokered conventions, what's not to like As a citizen that is scary as hell.

BeyondGeography

(39,345 posts)
8. The supers are a non-issue
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 02:07 AM
Mar 2016

Whoever wins the most pledged delegates wins. He has to rack up huge differentials in big states to catch up and the Clinton campaign will be smart about narrowing his margins wherever possible. Bottom line is it's very hard lose the South the way Bernie did (as Hillary knows from '08) and make up the difference later on.

 

nadinbrzezinski

(154,021 posts)
10. You are correct, I know they are not
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 02:10 AM
Mar 2016

you asked. A lot of this early pledges (and the counts by media) are about perception.

They become a real issue on the floor.

But he does have a very narrow map, but a map nonetheless and winning today, he way out performed.

BeyondGeography

(39,345 posts)
11. It was a great win
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 02:14 AM
Mar 2016

and it will make the next month a lot more interesting as a result, not least because of all the positive energy his supporters will get from it. It also has loads of implications for the front runner.

 

nadinbrzezinski

(154,021 posts)
12. Yup, the nature of the race changed
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 02:16 AM
Mar 2016

also they had to get him out of the hotel room. This tells me they were not expecting this. I did, but that is becuase of the morning appearance by Granholm on CNN. Been doing this enough to know the internals sucked. I suspect everybody, and this includes both sides, did not expect it to be this bad for the Clintons. They are at times wrong, just ask President Romney.

madokie

(51,076 posts)
21. Hill really has no way to narrow his margins, as you put it
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 03:28 AM
Mar 2016

Lies aren't working so what else does she have that people haven't already heard or seen? I ask/ What does she have to counter with?

BeyondGeography

(39,345 posts)
23. Don't get cocky now...It's called competing for votes
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 07:59 AM
Mar 2016

Which she didn't do everywhere against Obama, particularly in the caucus states, like ID, where he won 15 of 18 delegates in '08. The latest polls from there show a two-point differential; you need 80 percent to net 12 delegates.

mhatrw

(10,786 posts)
4. BREAKING NEWS: Bernie Sanders Has Now Won 9 of the Last 10 States Outside of the South!
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 02:01 AM
Mar 2016
http://www.democraticunderground.com/12511450690

Hillary will soon be fresh out of Southern states.

InAbLuEsTaTe

(24,121 posts)
28. Hillary's not gonna win the South anyway... hell, she'll prolly be damaged goods by the time this is all over...
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 08:55 AM
Mar 2016

It's time we turn our eyes to Bernie, the one authentic progressive candidate who can demolish Donald Chump.

Go Bernie!

Bernie & Elizabeth 2016!!!

 

Cali_Democrat

(30,439 posts)
7. Hillary will likely lose ground between March 22 and April 9.
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 02:05 AM
Mar 2016

The question is how much of a margin can build between now and March 22.

Even though she lost Michigan today, she still picked up more raw votes than Bernie and more pledged delegates because of Mississippi.

 

Bluenorthwest

(45,319 posts)
26. Mississippi only 220,560 Democrats in total showed up to vote. If that's her energetic base it is
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 08:43 AM
Mar 2016

not very impressive. So much of the argument for her has been placed on this imagined massive and passionate support she has in the South but her support there is not strong enough to motivate much turnout. Her base, they seemed rather apathetic.....182,282 votes for her. 36,284 for Bernie.

When she's the top of the bill, the box office drops.

 

Betty Karlson

(7,231 posts)
32. Her on top of the bill = GOP landslide.
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 09:01 AM
Mar 2016

I shudder at the propect. How cluess and selfish does she has to be not to see the cliff she is rushing toward - and then wanting to take the party with her as well?

NCjack

(10,279 posts)
14. Maybe DWS should restart the DEM college campus registration drive -- oops, that
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 02:52 AM
Mar 2016

would not help, as most of the new recruits vote for Bernie. The Hillary pivot to the GE looks doubtful.

Happenstance24

(193 posts)
15. Not unless
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 03:12 AM
Mar 2016

he starts winning by bigger margins. They split the MI delegates tonight due to a 1.7% difference. It's still a tie when Bernie eeks out the win, right?

 

John Poet

(2,510 posts)
17. Bernie wins somewhat more than a split of delegates,
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 03:21 AM
Mar 2016

as he won more congressional districts in Michigan.

Current count is 69-61
http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/MI-D

 

nadinbrzezinski

(154,021 posts)
18. I cannot do the delegate count story until tomorrow
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 03:23 AM
Mar 2016

Because it will take a tad for all, including the Rs to come in

dana_b

(11,546 posts)
27. we said that this would happen
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 08:47 AM
Mar 2016

and no one listened! People here have been saying for weeks that Hillary's strongest states were early and then Bernie would bounce back towards the end of March and into April.

These dumb pundits need to start following some of the smart people that we have here.

 

Betty Karlson

(7,231 posts)
31. That little overentitled piece of corporation-coddling hasn't seen anything yet.
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 08:58 AM
Mar 2016

Now is when the vetting starts. And this time, the questions aren't Benghazi-committee nonsense she can brush off. This is about integrity (she has none), policies (she has the wrong ones) and leadership (she is a follower). Sucks to be Clinton.

InAbLuEsTaTe

(24,121 posts)
33. Yes Betty, the more Hillary loses in the weeks and months ahead, the more scrutiny she'll be subject to...
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 09:02 AM
Mar 2016

And that doesn't bode well for Hillary.

Bernie & Elizabeth 2016!!!

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