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Well this is interesting. Hillary actually expanded her popular vote lead today (Original Post) Cali_Democrat Mar 2016 OP
It's not going to stop her from losing the rest of the states save Florida. Kalidurga Mar 2016 #1
The totals are constantly aggregated as the precincts come in... Cali_Democrat Mar 2016 #4
Yes, she received more delegates too. (non-super delegates) But, Lil Missy Mar 2016 #2
Yes...because of the large win in MS.... Cali_Democrat Mar 2016 #5
Yup and..primaries are won the same way nadinbrzezinski Mar 2016 #3
Had the Michigan primary been winner take all.... Cali_Democrat Mar 2016 #6
Don't worry, those will come after the 15th. Joe the Revelator Mar 2016 #7
But a number of large states vote on mar 15 Cali_Democrat Mar 2016 #9
She needed to have this thing locked by the 15th. There is no way for her to do that... Joe the Revelator Mar 2016 #13
Yes, but I don't have to worry about that with the Dems nadinbrzezinski Mar 2016 #12
And the final chapter to Hillary's Southern Strategy is in progress. morningfog Mar 2016 #8
What was the popular vote in Iowa? Attorney in Texas Mar 2016 #10
Iowa, Nevada, and Maine aren't included in the total Cali_Democrat Mar 2016 #14
OH, so your popular vote totals aren't popular vote totals. Thanks for not implying they were. Attorney in Texas Mar 2016 #15
Sanders had more supporters show up in Nevada and Iowa? Cali_Democrat Mar 2016 #16
Iowa, almost certainly. Nevada, probably. A candidate who does well at universities (Obama in 2008 Attorney in Texas Mar 2016 #17
So if more of Bernie's supporters showed up to caucus in Nevada and Iowa like you claim... Cali_Democrat Mar 2016 #18
If a candidate's most enthusiastic supporters are disproportionately concentrated in a few causus Attorney in Texas Mar 2016 #20
This is why there is no REAL popular vote in the primaries karynnj Mar 2016 #21
Lost in the hype of Bernie's "virtual tie" ... NurseJackie Mar 2016 #11
She keeps getting more people to the polls and gaining in the delegate count. nt. NCTraveler Mar 2016 #19
As long as we're counting DELEGATES (and not individual states) Hillary will be the nominee. NurseJackie Mar 2016 #24
Of course with so very many votes being unlisted caucus votes there is no such thing as a popular Bluenorthwest Mar 2016 #22
+1 whatchamacallit Mar 2016 #23

Kalidurga

(14,177 posts)
1. It's not going to stop her from losing the rest of the states save Florida.
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 03:55 AM
Mar 2016

She might win in a squeaker with Ohio. But, that's about it for Hillary.

Lil Missy

(17,865 posts)
2. Yes, she received more delegates too. (non-super delegates) But,
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 03:59 AM
Mar 2016

Sanders scored a BIG win tonight, and has the momentum on his side, which I don't mind congratulating. Although, I still prefer HRC for the nomination and I'm not concerned that she'll lose any ground. She will still win the nomination in the end.

In the meantime - let's give Bernie and supporters their proper's for this win.

 

nadinbrzezinski

(154,021 posts)
3. Yup and..primaries are won the same way
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 04:00 AM
Mar 2016


The GE is won...this is not a direct election.

This is a fine point I had to explain at RSD, because quite frankly we give two shits about that. The only thing we care is delegates. Oh we don't care about supers though. She got more today than he did. His win in MI though is critical for the perception game.
 

Cali_Democrat

(30,439 posts)
6. Had the Michigan primary been winner take all....
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 11:12 AM
Mar 2016

Bernie would have closed the gap considerably.

But because it's a system of proportional allocation, he needs large wins to start closing the gap.

 

Cali_Democrat

(30,439 posts)
9. But a number of large states vote on mar 15
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 11:15 AM
Mar 2016

He needs large wins in large states to close the gap.

Doing it in small states won't work because there aren't enough delegates.

 

Joe the Revelator

(14,915 posts)
13. She needed to have this thing locked by the 15th. There is no way for her to do that...
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 11:18 AM
Mar 2016

...the math is changing. Don't live in the past.

 

nadinbrzezinski

(154,021 posts)
12. Yes, but I don't have to worry about that with the Dems
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 11:17 AM
Mar 2016

Everybody plays by the same rules as far as that is concerned

 

Cali_Democrat

(30,439 posts)
14. Iowa, Nevada, and Maine aren't included in the total
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 11:18 AM
Mar 2016

because those caucus states don't disclose the raw vote.

Hillary won Iowa and Nevada while Bernie won Maine.

Attorney in Texas

(3,373 posts)
15. OH, so your popular vote totals aren't popular vote totals. Thanks for not implying they were.
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 11:24 AM
Mar 2016

Oh, wait, you did suggest this number was a popular vote total when it was not -- in fact -- a popular vote total.

Moreover, there is no indication (and -- to the contrary -- there is contraindication) that Hillary got more votes in Iowa or Nevada or Maine. Sanders almost certainly had more supporters show up in Iowa and Maine and probably Nevada, too

Attorney in Texas

(3,373 posts)
17. Iowa, almost certainly. Nevada, probably. A candidate who does well at universities (Obama in 2008
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 11:32 AM
Mar 2016

and Sanders in 2016) usually wins university caucuses by very large margins with lots of participants, but these caucuses count the same as caucuses with sparse participation.

There were lots of reports of overwhelming turnout for Sanders at Iowa universities. Given the narrow margin of her win in Iowa, Sanders likely had more supporters. In Nevada, there were similar anecdotal reports (but not as many as we saw in Iowa).

In any event, the number you are floating as a popular vote total is not in fact a popular vote total.

 

Cali_Democrat

(30,439 posts)
18. So if more of Bernie's supporters showed up to caucus in Nevada and Iowa like you claim...
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 11:36 AM
Mar 2016

....how did he lose those caucuses?

Attorney in Texas

(3,373 posts)
20. If a candidate's most enthusiastic supporters are disproportionately concentrated in a few causus
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 12:04 PM
Mar 2016

precincts (e.g., like when a candidate is especially popular among college students), that support is under counted because if 7 people show up at that precinct to caucus the precinct may be allocated 100% to the candidate who has just 6 supporters but if 700 people show up and 600 caucus for the candidate, the precinct is allocated just the same.

karynnj

(59,501 posts)
21. This is why there is no REAL popular vote in the primaries
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 12:22 PM
Mar 2016

It was a HRC distraction in 2008. I do not get why you float this in 2016 when she is ahead in pledged delegates that are proportional to the TOTAL votes in earlier Presidential races.

The fact is the south was front loaded this year. HRC is the most likely nominee, but it is also true that Bernie is likely to do better in the west where only Nevada has voted and the Midwest where only michigan. Iowa and Minnesota have voted.

 

Bluenorthwest

(45,319 posts)
22. Of course with so very many votes being unlisted caucus votes there is no such thing as a popular
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 12:29 PM
Mar 2016

vote total available to us. Entire States lack raw voter totals. But it's an A for effort on a morning that has to be almost as hard on you as it must be on Nate.

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