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Renew Deal

(81,852 posts)
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 08:16 AM Mar 2016

Sanders had a net negative 20 delegate day yesterday

+8 in Michigan
-28 in Mississippi

And not winning both states by 60-40 puts him further behind. He can win every state next Tuesday by the same margin as Michigan and be effectively no closer to catching up.

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Sanders had a net negative 20 delegate day yesterday (Original Post) Renew Deal Mar 2016 OP
He needed to weather the Clinton storm through March 15th.... Joe the Revelator Mar 2016 #1
I agree. Renew Deal Mar 2016 #2
he has many good states ahead restorefreedom Mar 2016 #3
Fat lot of good Mississippi is going to do Democrats in the general. merrily Mar 2016 #4
If you don't win the nomination, you don't get to run for president. Buzz Clik Mar 2016 #12
Running for POTUS is a waste of oxygen and opportunity if you lose the general for Dems. merrily Mar 2016 #15
Delegate allocation rules need to be changed. NT aaaaaa5a Mar 2016 #5
How? Renew Deal Mar 2016 #6
I support SuperDelegates. They have a role. aaaaaa5a Mar 2016 #17
How's that? They are assigned proportionately. What is your suggestion? Buzz Clik Mar 2016 #11
Congressional districts that are overwhelmingly democratic are worth more aaaaaa5a Mar 2016 #16
I'll take it... RazBerryBeret Mar 2016 #7
Michigan is a major win Renew Deal Mar 2016 #8
This buckeye RazBerryBeret Mar 2016 #9
As big a surprise as MI was, I'm not counting on anything. Buzz Clik Mar 2016 #10
MI = stunning upset; MS expected. Only needs to get enough in March to stay viable & he beat that magical thyme Mar 2016 #13
Simple truth. But let them be happy today. Hortensis Mar 2016 #14
Hillary is winning in blood red states that will NOT vote for the Democratic nominee in November. Zen Democrat Mar 2016 #18
Go look at the states Obama won in 2008 Renew Deal Mar 2016 #20
But as he does win, that 60-40 will become 75-25...he's ON A ROLL! johnnyrocket Mar 2016 #19
K&R. nt UtahLib Mar 2016 #21
Thanks for the math mainstreetonce Mar 2016 #22
k&r DesertRat Mar 2016 #23
 

Joe the Revelator

(14,915 posts)
1. He needed to weather the Clinton storm through March 15th....
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 08:19 AM
Mar 2016

He has done that and more. He has kept it close enough where making up ground when the map turns to his better states should be 'easier'. Also, never under estimate momentum.

restorefreedom

(12,655 posts)
3. he has many good states ahead
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 08:24 AM
Mar 2016

and several have huge delegate counts

once the south is behind us, you will see the numbers really change

merrily

(45,251 posts)
4. Fat lot of good Mississippi is going to do Democrats in the general.
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 08:28 AM
Mar 2016

It hasn't voted for a Democratic President since the Governor of Georgia ran.

aaaaaa5a

(4,667 posts)
17. I support SuperDelegates. They have a role.
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 09:36 AM
Mar 2016

All you have to do is look at the GOO race to understand their potential importance.

For the rest of the rule changes I would implement, please see below.

aaaaaa5a

(4,667 posts)
16. Congressional districts that are overwhelmingly democratic are worth more
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 09:35 AM
Mar 2016

than other districts.

For example let's assume these 2 districts (A,B) are exactly the same in terms of population with 1 exception.

Congressional District A: This district is historically democratic. For this reason if a candidate wins here it's worth more.

Congressional District B: This district is less reliably democratic. It often votes republican. If a candidate wins here even if it's by a larger popular vote margin, they recieve less delegates.


This explains a lot of Clinton's lead. Clinton wins (usually blowouts) in reliably democratic districts. Therefore her congressional wins are worth more. This is why in small rural southern states she dominates the delegate count. On the flip side, if you have a candidate that can expand the electorate or win in republican areas, even if you are winning by large margins, you can't keep pace because these congressional wins are worth less.


Clinton dominated the delegate count last night. Her lead EXPANDED. I am a Clinton supporter. I understand that these delegate allocation rules were designed to reward congressional districts that were democratic. But what these rules mean, is that candidates with base support are disproportionately rewarded compared to candidates that could expand the party by winning in other areas.

No one objectively could conclude that last night Clinton had a better night than Sanders. But by the delegate scoreboard, which is all that matters, she did.

 

magical thyme

(14,881 posts)
13. MI = stunning upset; MS expected. Only needs to get enough in March to stay viable & he beat that
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 08:54 AM
Mar 2016

Everybody knows Feb and Mar are Clinton's best months. Bernie's best months are April, May and June.

He won Maine by 10X Michigan
He won Kansas by 10X Michigan
He won Nebraska by 5X Michigan

Hortensis

(58,785 posts)
14. Simple truth. But let them be happy today.
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 09:00 AM
Mar 2016

Ultimately we're all but a tiny handful, and minus the right wing infiltrators, on the same side.

Zen Democrat

(5,901 posts)
18. Hillary is winning in blood red states that will NOT vote for the Democratic nominee in November.
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 09:53 AM
Mar 2016

Bernie has wins in New Hampshire, Vermont, Michigan, Minnesota, Colorado, Maine, and probably Iowa - all blue or purple states. Hillary is winning because the DNC stacked the deck for her, while she's still struggling to connect with white, working class voters.



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