2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumClinton wins by losing
With 130 Michigan delegates at stake, Sanders will win at least 63 and Clinton at least 52. His gains will be canceled out by Clintons earlier win in Mississippi. She already entered the night with a 196-delegate lead over Sanders based on primaries and caucuses alone.
Democrats award delegates in proportion to the vote, so Clinton was able to add a good chunk of delegates even after losing Michigan.
Including superdelegates, her lead becomes even bigger at least 1,214 to Sanders 566. It takes 2,383 to win the nomination.
http://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/politics/elections/2016/03/09/election-news-guide/81518600/
NurseJackie
(42,862 posts)rhett o rick
(55,981 posts)If you are happy with the status quo, vote for the Goldman-Sachs candidate, if you want to help those left behind while the Oligarchy reaped trillions in profits, vote Sen Sanders. Don't side with the 01%, they don't really love you, they want our resources.
NCTraveler
(30,481 posts)That is not negating Sanders solid win last night.
DrDan
(20,411 posts)open primaries just do not make sense to me - why let other-than-D's cast a vote for the Dem candidate?
Bettie
(15,998 posts)right?
Or do you want the general to be open only to the people who are identified with one of the two major parties?
DrDan
(20,411 posts)by the party members.
And I have no issue with a non-D pursuing a candidacy - let the party members decide who they want to represent them.
Bettie
(15,998 posts)to have blind spots.
I definitely do. I'm sure you do as well.
Independents give us a better read on what works for a larger population than just the small percentage of people who actually belong to the party.
The ability to pull unaffiliated voters to our side, versus the other side is important.
I suppose, to keep unaffiliated voters from helping to choose the D candidate, we could go back to an older method where the candidate is chosen by the party leadership instead of voting. Otherwise, in states with open primaries, there will be independents voting.
TTUBatfan2008
(3,623 posts)...are over 40% of the national electorate. Doesn't sound smart to ban them from primaries.
DrDan
(20,411 posts)that should be left up to the members of that party
it is their decision not to join a party - but when doing so, they do not get the rights of party membership.
NurseJackie
(42,862 posts)... for very obvious reasons.
EmperorHasNoClothes
(4,797 posts)Sanders has outperformed the polls in the states he has won so far by about 14%. If he maintains that kind of performance, he will pass her in pledged delegates in June.
randome
(34,845 posts)Obviously the polling was way off in Michigan but that doesn't mean they all are. A 'methodology' of judging the future by one win isn't likely to be justified. (Just keeping it real.)
[hr][font color="blue"][center]A 90% chance of rain means the same as a 10% chance:
It might rain and it might not.[/center][/font][hr]
EmperorHasNoClothes
(4,797 posts)He has consistently outperformed the polls. They have all been off, by as much as 26%.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/12511452793
randome
(34,845 posts)Are you saying he will outperform every single poll from now until the nomination? Maybe so but I still don't see it happening. And the polling will start taking into consideration that he's doing better than expected, which means they will become more accurate. Nate Silver has been more accurate than not so I'd still put my money on methodology rather than wishing.
Anything is possible, of course.
[hr][font color="blue"][center]A 90% chance of rain means the same as a 10% chance:
It might rain and it might not.[/center][/font][hr]
EmperorHasNoClothes
(4,797 posts)He hasn't been very accurate at all - off by an average of 9% in one direction or another.
randome
(34,845 posts)[hr][font color="blue"][center]A 90% chance of rain means the same as a 10% chance:
It might rain and it might not.[/center][/font][hr]
restorefreedom
(12,655 posts)760 to 546 pledged delegates. supers will support the winner
lots of states and delegates left, many favorable,to bernie. hillarys best states are mostly behind her.
rhett o rick
(55,981 posts)are making the Oligarchy nervous. Choose the side that backs the people and not Goldman-Sachs and Wall Street.