My memory isn't perfect, but looks like it's nowhere near definitive yet who is better in the states we'll need for the GE

Per county as .png (2008)



This one at least shows the color keys.

Would like to see how the current contenders are doing in the states we'll need in the GE

just look at the areas of the various states that leaned a certain way and you may be able to see where the urban versus rural votes are, with the expectation that "urban" and "rim suburban" tends to be "D"... E.g., here in PA, the very urban SE corner (coupled with the NE and Pittsburgh) can and have thrown the entire state into the D column every Presidential election since 1988 - despite PA rural red-leanings, including the entire state legislature and alternating governors. And in 2008, Clinton had actually captured much of the rural D vote.

However note that many of the 2008/2012 bellweathers haven't voted yet - notably Illinois (where Clinton was born and Bernie briefly lived) and NY (where Bernie was born but where Clinton was Senator)... So don't think you can conclude anything this soon except that so far, Clinton has been picking up a number of areas that Obama carried in 2008, although Bernie captured Michigan, which had been an Obama win.

In 2008, Obama took 27 states + DC. In 2012, he had 25 + DC (ID and NC went to Romney). Thru yesterday, HRC has 4 of those 2012 states (NV/IA/VA/MA = 36 EVs) and Bernie has 6 (NH/VT/ME/MI/MN/CO = 46 EVs).

So far Bernie is ahead in the states we need to win in Nov, but we've only contested 10 of the states Obama won in 2008 or 2012.

Yes, I know that voters in all states count toward the delegate total, but this could have interesting implications for the unpledged super delegates. The longer Bernie can stay in and be competitive, the better chance he has to overcome the electability question.

did switch around as the 2008 race progressed... However we still have the big ticket/large blue states still out (here in PA, idiotically called a "swing state" for years in the past but finally moved out of that category in 2012) won't vote until near the end of April. There are 210 delegates to be allocated.

As a note - I just found this cool site that has running totals and primary/caucus dates - http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/events.phtml?s=c

That's my point, early endorsements and super delegate counts are transitory. Obviously if HRC had crushed it early, it would all be academic by now, but Bernie is not just alive, he's back in there swinging.

This will get very interesting before we get to the convention.