2016 Postmortem

George II

(67,782 posts) Wed Mar 9, 2016, 10:08 AM Mar 2016

March 8 Delegate Count:

Michigan:

Clinton 68
Sanders 65
Outstanding 12

Mississippi

Clinton 32
Sanders 5
Outstanding 4

Total:

Clinton 100
Sanders 70
Outstanding 16

15 replies

= new reply since forum marked as read

Highlight:

March 8 Delegate Count: (Original Post) George II Mar 2016 OP

K&R BooScout Mar 2016 #1

Well that helps to keep things in perspective! THANK YOU! NurseJackie Mar 2016 #2

Here's final count: morningfog Mar 2016 #3

A big win for Bernie in MI but in the big picture it doesnt help him much. DCBob Mar 2016 #4

A win for Sanders, anyway. He won by 19,000 votes from 1.16M total votes...... George II Mar 2016 #5

The polling was seriously flawed or something happened in the final days that affected the voters. DCBob Mar 2016 #6

Open primary, lots of independents voted that weren't included in polls. George II Mar 2016 #7

Yeah, I just read that. I didnt realize the polling was not including independents. DCBob Mar 2016 #11

Still going with "inevitable"? Motown_Johnny Mar 2016 #8

Look up two terms nadinbrzezinski Mar 2016 #10

Thanks nadinbrzezinski Mar 2016 #9

The main thing that happened is it ends the so called inevitability meme for Hillary. libtodeath Mar 2016 #12

It did more than that nadinbrzezinski Mar 2016 #13

By the numbers, and a little perspective: George II Mar 2016 #14

Wrong calculation. The winner of the pledged delegate race will be the nominee. morningfog Mar 2016 #15

BooScout

(10,406 posts)

1. K&R

Reply to George II (Original post)

Wed Mar 9, 2016, 10:09 AM

Mar 2016

NurseJackie

(42,862 posts)

2. Well that helps to keep things in perspective! THANK YOU!

Reply to George II (Original post)

Wed Mar 9, 2016, 10:16 AM

Mar 2016

morningfog

(18,115 posts)

3. Here's final count:

Reply to George II (Original post)

Wed Mar 9, 2016, 10:18 AM

Mar 2016

MI 69-61 (B +8)
MS 4-32 (H +28)

Total net H +20

Current PD count: H-769; B-552

Hillary is up 217. She was up 197 going into last night.

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/D-PU.phtml

DCBob

(24,689 posts)

4. A big win for Bernie in MI but in the big picture it doesnt help him much.

Reply to George II (Original post)

Wed Mar 9, 2016, 10:20 AM

Mar 2016

In fact its a another lost opportunity for him to gain ground. The only benefit you can say is that it will extend the inevitable a bit.

George II

(67,782 posts)

5. A win for Sanders, anyway. He won by 19,000 votes from 1.16M total votes......

Reply to DCBob (Reply #4)

Wed Mar 9, 2016, 10:31 AM

Mar 2016

....what could be considered big was that Clinton had been forecast to win.

And as you point out, that's another 160+ delegates behind us. And Clinton widened her lead.

DCBob

(24,689 posts)

6. The polling was seriously flawed or something happened in the final days that affected the voters.

Reply to George II (Reply #5)

Wed Mar 9, 2016, 10:34 AM

Mar 2016

I am wondering if Hillary's auto-bailout attacks may have backfired. I think once people found out the details many thought those attacks were unfair. Not sure but its really weird for the polling to be that far off.

George II

(67,782 posts)

7. Open primary, lots of independents voted that weren't included in polls.

Reply to DCBob (Reply #6)

Wed Mar 9, 2016, 10:59 AM

Mar 2016

DCBob

(24,689 posts)

11. Yeah, I just read that. I didnt realize the polling was not including independents.

Reply to George II (Reply #7)

Wed Mar 9, 2016, 11:10 AM

Mar 2016

Odd they would not include those.

Motown_Johnny

(22,308 posts)

8. Still going with "inevitable"?

Reply to DCBob (Reply #4)

Wed Mar 9, 2016, 11:01 AM

Mar 2016

Her firewall is wearing thin. Inevitable seems like a stretch.

nadinbrzezinski

(154,021 posts)

10. Look up two terms

Reply to DCBob (Reply #4)

Wed Mar 9, 2016, 11:05 AM

Mar 2016

Over performed

Perception

nadinbrzezinski

(154,021 posts)

9. Thanks

Reply to George II (Original post)

Wed Mar 9, 2016, 11:04 AM

Mar 2016

But the perception game is still at play.

I've done the math with the map. It remains viable if narrow.

libtodeath

(2,888 posts)

12. The main thing that happened is it ends the so called inevitability meme for Hillary.

Reply to nadinbrzezinski (Reply #9)

Wed Mar 9, 2016, 11:12 AM

Mar 2016

nadinbrzezinski

(154,021 posts)

13. It did more than that

Reply to libtodeath (Reply #12)

Wed Mar 9, 2016, 11:18 AM

Mar 2016

Will be working on it on tje plane

George II

(67,782 posts)

14. By the numbers, and a little perspective:

Reply to George II (Original post)

Wed Mar 9, 2016, 11:23 AM

Mar 2016

(numbers may vary slightly, but not much)

Total Delegates:

4483

Delegates needed for the nomination:

2242

Current overall delegate count:

Clinton 1238
Sanders 572

Remaining delegates needed for the nomination:

Clinton 1004 (38% of remaining delegates)
Sanders 1670 (62% of remaining delegates)

The bottom line is that Sanders will need to win the remaining 29 states by an overall average of 62%. Each time he loses a state or wins a state by less than 62% that average goes up.

morningfog

(18,115 posts)

15. Wrong calculation. The winner of the pledged delegate race will be the nominee.

Reply to George II (Reply #14)

Wed Mar 9, 2016, 11:58 AM

Mar 2016

There are 2730 pledged delegates outstanding for either to get to the majority of 2026.

Hillary needs 1257 to get to 2026, or 46%
Bernie needs 1474 to get to 2026, or 54%

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