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kennetha

(3,666 posts)
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 10:15 AM Mar 2016

Open Primaries are a Pain for Clinton a boon for Sanders

Among committed democrats, Clinton kicked tail even in Michigan.

Sanders chances of winning hinge on open primaries where independents and sometimes even registered repugnants can cross over and vote.

Of next weeks primaries, Florida is closed. That is really good news for our Clinton, bad news for Sanders.

Illinois, and Missouri are open. So who knows what will happen there?

Ohio and North Carolina are "modified."

In Ohio, anybody can vote in the democratic primary, but you do have to declare yourself a democrat at the polling place in order to do so. They say that tends to cut down on the number of independents who vote in a party's primary. We'll see.

In North Carolina, at least registered Republican's can't vote in the Democratic primary, but independents can. With NC being part both a state with a lot of Universities and a lot of African Americans, that could be an interesting one.

I'm convinced that Clinton's high poll numbers in Michigan combined with the open primary was partly responsible for Sanders' very narrow, but very real victory there. I suspect that his supporters are going to turn out in droves, no matter the odds against him. They are on a mission. Probably too many of Clinton's supporters were lulled into complacency and either stayed home or decided to exercise a strategic vote or thought that voting for Sanders out of heartstrings, as it were, was a freebie.

Can't make that mistake again.

33 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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Open Primaries are a Pain for Clinton a boon for Sanders (Original Post) kennetha Mar 2016 OP
"...thought that voting for Sanders out of heartstrings, as it were, was a freebie." Wilms Mar 2016 #1
They just misheard. Someone yelled, "Vote your private parts," merrily Mar 2016 #4
"There' was a THIRD possibility I had not even counted upon!" Wilms Mar 2016 #7
I just posted that video twice recently, but merrily Mar 2016 #11
Many Sanders voters don't believe he could win, but the like the crusty old white guy. kennetha Mar 2016 #8
You can keep repeating that but I don't think anyone is going to buy it. merrily Mar 2016 #12
I didn't buy it either. -none Mar 2016 #30
No sentimental voting for you? Today is the first time I heard that merrily Mar 2016 #33
Had to bring race into it I see. libtodeath Mar 2016 #20
Crusty Old White Guy? Wilms Mar 2016 #21
He is still the underdog, but your assertion he still has no chance is dubious at best. Lizzie Poppet Mar 2016 #22
Aren't both our options crusty old and white? noamnety Mar 2016 #29
She barely won in Massachusetts which has a semi-closed primary and possibly merrily Mar 2016 #2
Not sure what the point is. kennetha Mar 2016 #3
Um, no he wasn't. The point is your claim about open primaries and merrily Mar 2016 #5
Well, Sanders sure talked like he thought he would win in Mass. kennetha Mar 2016 #6
LOL. Hillary supporters have been posting polls every ten seconds. But now, the predictor is merrily Mar 2016 #9
I really have no idea what you are trying to say kennetha Mar 2016 #10
LOL! Sorry, I must still be giddy from casting my sentimental vote for Hillary merrily Mar 2016 #15
Correction on Ohio votesparks Mar 2016 #13
This according to a voter education website. kennetha Mar 2016 #16
That's the exact process I went through in Michigan. noamnety Mar 2016 #31
What it probably means is no one outright gets enough delegates for the nomination... JCMach1 Mar 2016 #14
Nonsense Art_from_Ark Mar 2016 #17
Texas has a closed primary. kennetha Mar 2016 #18
Nope, Texas has an open primary Art_from_Ark Mar 2016 #19
Let me know... TTUBatfan2008 Mar 2016 #23
Conclusion: We should have an open national primary. Tierra_y_Libertad Mar 2016 #24
wow With all the names we started with? oldandhappy Mar 2016 #28
The largest political group in the US now are independents - 43% Arazi Mar 2016 #25
Sort of funny that 'we the people' oldandhappy Mar 2016 #26
A party primary isn't a general election kennetha Mar 2016 #27
to protect the party/country from losing to trump noamnety Mar 2016 #32
 

Wilms

(26,795 posts)
1. "...thought that voting for Sanders out of heartstrings, as it were, was a freebie."
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 10:17 AM
Mar 2016

Yeah. That's what happened.

merrily

(45,251 posts)
4. They just misheard. Someone yelled, "Vote your private parts,"
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 10:22 AM
Mar 2016

and they heard "private hearts."

Someone else yelled, "Vote your vagina" and they heard "Vote your angina."

Hey. It could happen.

 

Wilms

(26,795 posts)
7. "There' was a THIRD possibility I had not even counted upon!"
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 10:30 AM
Mar 2016

Arlo Gutherie - Alice's Resturant

merrily

(45,251 posts)
11. I just posted that video twice recently, but
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 10:35 AM
Mar 2016

I don't remember if it was here or JackpineRadicals.org. or one of each.

kennetha

(3,666 posts)
8. Many Sanders voters don't believe he could win, but the like the crusty old white guy.
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 10:31 AM
Mar 2016

If Hillary is way ahead in the polls, you could think a vote for Sanders is just an expressive, sentimental vote.

Admit it, you know he doesn't stand a chance of winning the nomination. And wouldn't stand of winning the general if he somehow by magic got the nomination.

-none

(1,884 posts)
30. I didn't buy it either.
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 11:35 AM
Mar 2016

I don't vote for who I think will win. This is not a sports game, as too many believe. I vote for who I want to win. In this case, a person who we need to win.
Bernie Sanders stands for what most Americans want and have been increasingly denied for the last 50 some years.
Hillary is status quo, which is little steps to the Right with each election.

merrily

(45,251 posts)
33. No sentimental voting for you? Today is the first time I heard that
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 11:40 AM
Mar 2016

people shlep to polls to stand in line to vote for the candidate they don't want.

DU's much better than a comedy club sometimes.


 

Lizzie Poppet

(10,164 posts)
22. He is still the underdog, but your assertion he still has no chance is dubious at best.
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 11:12 AM
Mar 2016

Hillary's primary election scheduling advantage is almost gone. Unless Bernie gets absolutely crushed next Tuesday, he's still very much in the hunt, and the delegate gap will do nothing but shrink. This is likely to go right down to the wire.

If Bernie is ahead in the primary national popular vote going into the convention and the superdelegates don't flip, I guarantee you that a big chunk of Bernie voters won't just walk away from the party, they'll work to destroy it and erect a legitimately progressive party in its place. They'll be demanding a true liberal party, not a center-right simulacrum of one with anti-democratic tendencies.

 

noamnety

(20,234 posts)
29. Aren't both our options crusty old and white?
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 11:32 AM
Mar 2016

So ... you're just saying voters voted for the candidate they prefer. That's the idea of an election, right?

Did I miss something?

merrily

(45,251 posts)
2. She barely won in Massachusetts which has a semi-closed primary and possibly
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 10:19 AM
Mar 2016

the most committed Democrats in the country when it comes to Presidential elections. She did much better against Obama in Massachusetts in 2008 than she did against Bernie.

merrily

(45,251 posts)
5. Um, no he wasn't. The point is your claim about open primaries and
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 10:24 AM
Mar 2016

committed Democrats. The stuff in the OP you just posted. Did you forget already?

kennetha

(3,666 posts)
6. Well, Sanders sure talked like he thought he would win in Mass.
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 10:28 AM
Mar 2016

“On Tuesday, March 1, we’re going to make history here in Massachusetts,” Sanders told a crowd Monday at UMass Amherst. “This great state is going to lead us forward to a political revolution.”

If Sanders’ political revolution is going anywhere on Super Tuesday, it will have to be in states like Massachusetts, where he has a demographic advantage.


The point you seem to be making is that if Sanders CAN'T win in open primary states, he's definitely toast. I agree.

merrily

(45,251 posts)
9. LOL. Hillary supporters have been posting polls every ten seconds. But now, the predictor is
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 10:33 AM
Mar 2016

what the candidate says?

What demographic advantage are you assuming in Massachusetts.

The point you seem to be making is that if Sanders CAN'T win in open primary states, he's definitely toast
.

Really? That's the point I'm trying to make? What do you hope to gain by being that dishonest with me about my own intent? Did you think I was going to agree? Surely, you're better than that. You must be.

kennetha

(3,666 posts)
10. I really have no idea what you are trying to say
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 10:34 AM
Mar 2016

it seems confusing and incoherent. try explaining yourself again.

merrily

(45,251 posts)
15. LOL! Sorry, I must still be giddy from casting my sentimental vote for Hillary
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 10:41 AM
Mar 2016

because I was dying to vote for a woman and thought it wouldn't matter.

That has to be the most laughable thing I've seen on Du since another poster claimed that the blueprint of the New Deal could not be followed because no living person remembered the Depression.

You guys are a riot.

PS. Hillary is all of six years younger than Bernie and looks a lot less healthy. Carry on.

votesparks

(1,288 posts)
13. Correction on Ohio
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 10:37 AM
Mar 2016

you don't have to "declare" that you are Democrat to vote in the Ohio primaries. You only have to request to vote in the Democratic primary. This does not make one an official Democrat.

kennetha

(3,666 posts)
16. This according to a voter education website.
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 10:46 AM
Mar 2016
Party Affiliation: Under Ohio election law, you declare your political affiliation by requesting the ballot of a political party in a partisan primary election. If you do not desire to affiliate with a political party in Ohio, you are considered to be an unaffiliated voter and may vote the Official Questions & Issues Ballot, if there is one for your precinct at the election.



semantic difference. the act of requesting a ballot is a declaration of party affiliation in Ohio.
 

noamnety

(20,234 posts)
31. That's the exact process I went through in Michigan.
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 11:35 AM
Mar 2016

I went to the table and asked for the blue (democratic) ballot.

If I lived in Ohio, I would do the same.

Art_from_Ark

(27,247 posts)
17. Nonsense
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 10:48 AM
Mar 2016

The Super Tuesday Southern states Hillary won,
Alabama
Arkansas
Georgia
Tennessee
Texas

plus South Carolina and Mississippi, had open primaries.

kennetha

(3,666 posts)
18. Texas has a closed primary.
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 10:52 AM
Mar 2016

But what's your point? There are more factors at work than open/closed obviously. But it would be silly to deny that that's one factor.

Art_from_Ark

(27,247 posts)
19. Nope, Texas has an open primary
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 11:01 AM
Mar 2016

"Texas has open primaries, meaning you can cast a ballot in either party’s primary, regardless of whether you’ve voted in that party’s primary before."

http://interactives.dallasnews.com/2016/voter-checklist/

And your whole premise was that open primaries are a "boon" for Sanders. I'm merely pointing out the open primaries in the South all favored Hillary.

TTUBatfan2008

(3,623 posts)
23. Let me know...
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 11:15 AM
Mar 2016

...the path to victory for a Democrat in November without a huge chunk of the Independent vote (which accounts for over 40% of the national electorate).

Arazi

(6,829 posts)
25. The largest political group in the US now are independents - 43%
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 11:18 AM
Mar 2016

Democratic membership has been falling for many years now. So Hillary solidly winning the Democratic vote doesn't mean as much as it used to.

Sanders has the greater majority of potential voters because he's appealing to a broader swath of people

oldandhappy

(6,719 posts)
26. Sort of funny that 'we the people'
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 11:24 AM
Mar 2016

are a pain! I want each person who is a citizen to be allowed to register to vote and I want every registered voter to be allowed to vote as they wish. That is democracy. eh?

 

noamnety

(20,234 posts)
32. to protect the party/country from losing to trump
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 11:39 AM
Mar 2016

which is a risk you take if you exclude most voters from having a voice, and put all your faith in 538.

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