2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumOpen Primaries are a Pain for Clinton a boon for Sanders
Among committed democrats, Clinton kicked tail even in Michigan.
Sanders chances of winning hinge on open primaries where independents and sometimes even registered repugnants can cross over and vote.
Of next weeks primaries, Florida is closed. That is really good news for our Clinton, bad news for Sanders.
Illinois, and Missouri are open. So who knows what will happen there?
Ohio and North Carolina are "modified."
In Ohio, anybody can vote in the democratic primary, but you do have to declare yourself a democrat at the polling place in order to do so. They say that tends to cut down on the number of independents who vote in a party's primary. We'll see.
In North Carolina, at least registered Republican's can't vote in the Democratic primary, but independents can. With NC being part both a state with a lot of Universities and a lot of African Americans, that could be an interesting one.
I'm convinced that Clinton's high poll numbers in Michigan combined with the open primary was partly responsible for Sanders' very narrow, but very real victory there. I suspect that his supporters are going to turn out in droves, no matter the odds against him. They are on a mission. Probably too many of Clinton's supporters were lulled into complacency and either stayed home or decided to exercise a strategic vote or thought that voting for Sanders out of heartstrings, as it were, was a freebie.
Can't make that mistake again.
Wilms
(26,795 posts)Yeah. That's what happened.
merrily
(45,251 posts)and they heard "private hearts."
Someone else yelled, "Vote your vagina" and they heard "Vote your angina."
Hey. It could happen.
Wilms
(26,795 posts)Arlo Gutherie - Alice's Resturant
merrily
(45,251 posts)I don't remember if it was here or JackpineRadicals.org. or one of each.
kennetha
(3,666 posts)If Hillary is way ahead in the polls, you could think a vote for Sanders is just an expressive, sentimental vote.
Admit it, you know he doesn't stand a chance of winning the nomination. And wouldn't stand of winning the general if he somehow by magic got the nomination.
merrily
(45,251 posts)-none
(1,884 posts)I don't vote for who I think will win. This is not a sports game, as too many believe. I vote for who I want to win. In this case, a person who we need to win.
Bernie Sanders stands for what most Americans want and have been increasingly denied for the last 50 some years.
Hillary is status quo, which is little steps to the Right with each election.
merrily
(45,251 posts)people shlep to polls to stand in line to vote for the candidate they don't want.
DU's much better than a comedy club sometimes.
libtodeath
(2,888 posts)So transparent.
Wilms
(26,795 posts)Yeah. OK.
Here's how the GE looks. I guess you were unaware.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_presidential_race.html
Or you're try to Clinton me, that is, spin and lie.
Lizzie Poppet
(10,164 posts)Hillary's primary election scheduling advantage is almost gone. Unless Bernie gets absolutely crushed next Tuesday, he's still very much in the hunt, and the delegate gap will do nothing but shrink. This is likely to go right down to the wire.
If Bernie is ahead in the primary national popular vote going into the convention and the superdelegates don't flip, I guarantee you that a big chunk of Bernie voters won't just walk away from the party, they'll work to destroy it and erect a legitimately progressive party in its place. They'll be demanding a true liberal party, not a center-right simulacrum of one with anti-democratic tendencies.
noamnety
(20,234 posts)So ... you're just saying voters voted for the candidate they prefer. That's the idea of an election, right?
Did I miss something?
merrily
(45,251 posts)the most committed Democrats in the country when it comes to Presidential elections. She did much better against Obama in Massachusetts in 2008 than she did against Bernie.
kennetha
(3,666 posts)That's one Sanders expected to win. So....
merrily
(45,251 posts)committed Democrats. The stuff in the OP you just posted. Did you forget already?
kennetha
(3,666 posts)On Tuesday, March 1, were going to make history here in Massachusetts, Sanders told a crowd Monday at UMass Amherst. This great state is going to lead us forward to a political revolution.
If Sanders political revolution is going anywhere on Super Tuesday, it will have to be in states like Massachusetts, where he has a demographic advantage.
The point you seem to be making is that if Sanders CAN'T win in open primary states, he's definitely toast. I agree.
merrily
(45,251 posts)what the candidate says?
What demographic advantage are you assuming in Massachusetts.
The point you seem to be making is that if Sanders CAN'T win in open primary states, he's definitely toast.
Really? That's the point I'm trying to make? What do you hope to gain by being that dishonest with me about my own intent? Did you think I was going to agree? Surely, you're better than that. You must be.
kennetha
(3,666 posts)it seems confusing and incoherent. try explaining yourself again.
merrily
(45,251 posts)because I was dying to vote for a woman and thought it wouldn't matter.
That has to be the most laughable thing I've seen on Du since another poster claimed that the blueprint of the New Deal could not be followed because no living person remembered the Depression.
You guys are a riot.
PS. Hillary is all of six years younger than Bernie and looks a lot less healthy. Carry on.
votesparks
(1,288 posts)you don't have to "declare" that you are Democrat to vote in the Ohio primaries. You only have to request to vote in the Democratic primary. This does not make one an official Democrat.
kennetha
(3,666 posts)Party Affiliation: Under Ohio election law, you declare your political affiliation by requesting the ballot of a political party in a partisan primary election. If you do not desire to affiliate with a political party in Ohio, you are considered to be an unaffiliated voter and may vote the Official Questions & Issues Ballot, if there is one for your precinct at the election.
semantic difference. the act of requesting a ballot is a declaration of party affiliation in Ohio.
noamnety
(20,234 posts)I went to the table and asked for the blue (democratic) ballot.
If I lived in Ohio, I would do the same.
JCMach1
(27,556 posts)EOM
Art_from_Ark
(27,247 posts)The Super Tuesday Southern states Hillary won,
Alabama
Arkansas
Georgia
Tennessee
Texas
plus South Carolina and Mississippi, had open primaries.
kennetha
(3,666 posts)But what's your point? There are more factors at work than open/closed obviously. But it would be silly to deny that that's one factor.
Art_from_Ark
(27,247 posts)"Texas has open primaries, meaning you can cast a ballot in either partys primary, regardless of whether youve voted in that partys primary before."
http://interactives.dallasnews.com/2016/voter-checklist/
And your whole premise was that open primaries are a "boon" for Sanders. I'm merely pointing out the open primaries in the South all favored Hillary.
TTUBatfan2008
(3,623 posts)...the path to victory for a Democrat in November without a huge chunk of the Independent vote (which accounts for over 40% of the national electorate).
Tierra_y_Libertad
(50,414 posts)oldandhappy
(6,719 posts)I'm for that, I think. Sounds cumbersome.
Arazi
(6,829 posts)Democratic membership has been falling for many years now. So Hillary solidly winning the Democratic vote doesn't mean as much as it used to.
Sanders has the greater majority of potential voters because he's appealing to a broader swath of people
oldandhappy
(6,719 posts)are a pain! I want each person who is a citizen to be allowed to register to vote and I want every registered voter to be allowed to vote as they wish. That is democracy. eh?
kennetha
(3,666 posts)what should it be run like one?
noamnety
(20,234 posts)which is a risk you take if you exclude most voters from having a voice, and put all your faith in 538.