2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumFiveThirtyEight Stunned By Michigan Results.
Both the FiveThirtyEight polls-plus and polls-only forecast gave Clinton a greater than 99 percent chance of winning. Thats because polling averages for primaries, while inexact, are usually not 25 percentage points off. Indeed, my colleague Nate Silver went back and found that only one primary, the 1984 Democratic primary in New Hampshire, was even on the same scale as this upset. In that contest, the polling average had Walter Mondale beating Gary Hart by 17 percentage points, but it was Hart who won, with slightly more than 9 percentage points over Mondale.
...
...
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-the-stunning-bernie-sanders-win-in-michigan-means/
FlatBaroque
(3,160 posts)He's not perfect. It's the biggest upset in 30 years.
virtualobserver
(8,760 posts)All of the from Hillary supporters about the polls in upcoming states.
We will in your faces if you do that going forward.
Bluenorthwest
(45,319 posts)Like many others, Nate is going to struggle with his mistakes more than he had to because he wallowed in self certainty and talked down to anyone who did not agree. When you say one candidate has more than 99% of a chance to win and then that candidate loses, that's not a simple error, that's an indictment of one's entire process and set of protocols.
He's making guesses. Like anyone else.
Bubzer
(4,211 posts)Essentially, garbage in, garbage out.
As one Hillary reporter would frequently say: "UNSKEW THE POLLS!!!"
grossproffit
(5,591 posts)Renew Deal
(81,844 posts)Maybe the debate changed something.
Lucky Luciano
(11,248 posts)Kip Humphrey
(4,753 posts)Bok_Tukalo
(4,322 posts)A greater than 99% chance isn't a 100% chance.
If you have a 1 in 100 chance, after about 30 years I would imagine the 1 chance would hit.
speaktruthtopower
(800 posts)or voters don't want to admit they are voting for Bernie.
Herman4747
(1,825 posts)jeff47
(26,549 posts)but keep in mind most cell phone-only users are like me: Don't answer if we don't recognize the number.