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Attorney in Texas

(3,373 posts)
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 10:45 AM Mar 2016

Sanders is right on target! Don't buy into the "Hillary's Winning by Losing" Fable

The argument that Hillary is winning even when she is losing is nonsense.

The primary calendar has been front-loaded to maximize Hillary's chance to win the nomination, and Sanders has survived this political death row.

Next week is the end of Hillary's advantage, and it looks like she would win the Presidency of the Confederacy by a landslide but Sanders is winning the Presidency of the Rest of Us where Sanders has won 9 out of 12 states:





Beginning on March 21 and running through April 9, the primary calendar turns toward the contests where the Democrats and Democrat-voting independents are much more receptive to Sanders' progressive message:

March 21: Democrats Abroad

March 22: Arizona, Idaho, Utah

March 26: Alaska, Hawaii, Washington

April 5: Wisconsin

April 9: Wyoming

Sanders will win most or all of these contests and could quite probably go 9 for 9 if we can get out the vote in Arizona!

This section of the primary calendar will add to the wins Sanders has already banked:

New Hampshire - Sanders won by a wide 22.4% margin

Colorado - Sanders won by a wide 18.5% margin

Minnesota - Sanders won by a wide 23.2% margin

Oklahoma - Sanders won by a wide 10.4% margin

Vermont - Sanders won by a wide 72.5% margin

Kansas - Sanders won by a wide 35.4% margin

Nebraska - Sanders won by a wide 14.2% margin

Maine - Sanders won by a wide 28.8% margin

Michigan - Sanders won by a 2% margin

Sanders has not only won, but when we win, he has set turnout records in Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska (which had a huge turnout despite switching from a primary in 2008 to a caucus in 2016), Maine, and Michigan.

Now that Hillary's run of states is coming to a close and the worm is turning on March 21, Sanders will make up lost ground from March 21 through April 9. Beginning on April 10, we enter the stretch of states which will decide the race (including New York, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Indiana, West Virginia, Oregon, California, Montana, New Mexico, North Dakota, South Dakota, etc.). We are already ahead in many of these states and the others are in reach when you consider that Sanders will be building YUGE momentum from the contests from March 21 through April 9!

Keep donating! Keep phone banking! Keep winning!


60 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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Sanders is right on target! Don't buy into the "Hillary's Winning by Losing" Fable (Original Post) Attorney in Texas Mar 2016 OP
This isn't the general election kennetha Mar 2016 #1
There is barely enough data to predict the winner or loser of states; there is not enough data to Attorney in Texas Mar 2016 #6
apparently Clinton has a larger delegate lead kennetha Mar 2016 #9
Sanders will UNDOUBTEDLY win more contests than Hillary 2008. This will be close. Attorney in Texas Mar 2016 #10
Bernie is going to have make up over 200 delegates rgoop Mar 2016 #28
No doubt that she remains the favorite and he's the underdog. We'r passing the phase where she could Attorney in Texas Mar 2016 #35
The general election is also a race for delegates. Electoral delegates. n/t Motown_Johnny Mar 2016 #11
The number of states has little to do with the delegate count. MineralMan Mar 2016 #2
When you link the green papers as a source for "the popular vote," what numbers do you believe is Attorney in Texas Mar 2016 #5
I use the Green Papers to look at individual states, as well. MineralMan Mar 2016 #12
You are floating "popular vote" numbers. Do you know what the numbers you float mean? Attorney in Texas Mar 2016 #14
Why yes, I do, thanks. MineralMan Mar 2016 #16
Well then you should know better than calling them popular vote totals when we both know they aren't Attorney in Texas Mar 2016 #18
... Agschmid Mar 2016 #25
Her firewall was the southern states and she is running out of them. Motown_Johnny Mar 2016 #13
Well, there is Florida still to vote. MineralMan Mar 2016 #15
Sanders' firewall was New England and he's running out of them. George II Mar 2016 #47
What I see when I read those posts is "Hillary is LOSING". Can't get past that. nt cherokeeprogressive Mar 2016 #3
kick kgnu_fan Mar 2016 #4
There are many delegates still up for grabs ibegurpard Mar 2016 #7
come from behind dana_b Mar 2016 #8
I just loved it last nite when the msm kept saying Bernie needs to win a state by more than 2%. OOPS jillan Mar 2016 #17
Obama built his win on lots of small state and caucus state wins. Hillary learned NOTHING from 2008 Attorney in Texas Mar 2016 #19
Delegates, delegates, delegates KingFlorez Mar 2016 #20
You understand that delegates are pledged by Democrats Abroad, Arizona, Idaho, Utah, Alaska, Hawaii, Attorney in Texas Mar 2016 #21
Clinton will still get delegates from all of those places KingFlorez Mar 2016 #22
"Beginning on March 21 " noamnety Mar 2016 #23
Of course, the "race is over on March 15" drumbeat is not an accidentally selected date Attorney in Texas Mar 2016 #24
??? I thought it was going to be over yesterday?? jillan Mar 2016 #27
Exactly n/t arcane1 Mar 2016 #29
Yep. They really want to shove her through by brute force. senz Mar 2016 #48
Somehow I was under the impression that HRC's delegate count is greater than Bernies. Buzz Clik Mar 2016 #26
The worm turns on March 21. Check back on April 9! Attorney in Texas Mar 2016 #32
I could say that the goal posts are moving. George II Mar 2016 #44
That map looks sort of like a general election SheilaT Mar 2016 #30
Donate at our Act Blue links Omaha Steve Mar 2016 #31
This ^ (Please!) Attorney in Texas Mar 2016 #57
Go, Bernie GO!! AzDar Mar 2016 #33
There have been five weeks of primaries so far, and after each of those five weeks Clinton's lead... George II Mar 2016 #34
That's the 'wrong' trend to mention 'round these parts! randome Mar 2016 #36
She's a regional candidate, and we're almost done with her region. She's only won 3 out of 12 states Attorney in Texas Mar 2016 #38
Regional candidate? She's won primaries in the Northeast, South, Midwest, and West.... George II Mar 2016 #39
3 out of 12. Attorney in Texas Mar 2016 #40
3 out of 12 where? There have been 21 states who have held primaries/caucuses. George II Mar 2016 #41
Of 12 non-southern states, Bernie won 9 and Hill won 3. senz Mar 2016 #54
Kickin' with gusto! Faux pas Mar 2016 #37
The media claims turnout is way down thus his "political revolution" is a fizzle.... Spitfire of ATJ Mar 2016 #42
Turnout is down in Clinton territory. Sanders BROKE RECORDS in Kansas, Colorado, Michigan, Maine etc Attorney in Texas Mar 2016 #45
The media can go on for an hour about the Republicans but they consider the Dems to be "boring". Spitfire of ATJ Mar 2016 #46
They don't call it the "corporate" media for nothing. senz Mar 2016 #49
Arizona-now is a good time to promote Social Security and Medicare. DhhD Mar 2016 #43
If you feel like doing it, this might make a good OP. senz Mar 2016 #50
This ^ Attorney in Texas Mar 2016 #52
But... But... Kos says it's over on March 15! Flying Squirrel Mar 2016 #51
I think he got that off the Wikipedia page for "wishful thinking" Attorney in Texas Mar 2016 #53
I love the way you counter their little "we win you lose" school-boy boasts senz Mar 2016 #55
thanks Attorney in Texas Mar 2016 #59
Absolutely on a good trajectory! pat_k Mar 2016 #56
definitely! Vote2016 Mar 2016 #58
Democrat vs democrat in a winnable state, a blue state jeepers Mar 2016 #60

Attorney in Texas

(3,373 posts)
6. There is barely enough data to predict the winner or loser of states; there is not enough data to
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 11:04 AM
Mar 2016

predict delegate allocation, but all of these states that Sanders is likely to win also assign delegates.

If Hillary was going to win this nomination, she would probably have locked down an insurmountable pledged delegate advantage during this phase of the process where she has a huge advantage. She missed that target. She's still the favorite, but she's a much weaker candidate than you realize.

 

rgoop

(76 posts)
28. Bernie is going to have make up over 200 delegates
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 12:46 PM
Mar 2016

It's possible but not terribly likely and I'm a Bernie supporter. I can see Bernie making up 100 but over 200 won't be easy.

Attorney in Texas

(3,373 posts)
35. No doubt that she remains the favorite and he's the underdog. We'r passing the phase where she could
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 01:03 PM
Mar 2016

have knocked him out (she failed) and entering the phase where Sanders could catch up somewhat and take the momentum. Sanders needs to use the stretch from March 21 to April 9 to change the momentum so that he takes a national lead and starts winning final-phase states that could go either way. His window to change the momentum opens in one week.

MineralMan

(146,192 posts)
2. The number of states has little to do with the delegate count.
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 10:52 AM
Mar 2016

And the delegate count is what will determine who gets the nomination. Yesterday, Clinton increased her lead in the delegate count, despite a narrow loss in Michigan. Every state's delegates are allocated according to the people's votes. In close elections, delegates are allocated to both candidates in numbers that are not widely different.

In Michigan, for example, Bernie earned 69 delegates, and Hillary earned 61. In Mississippi, Bernie won 4 delegates, while Hillary won 32. The result is a net gain for Hillary in the nationwide delegate totals.

You can follow the delegate count and the popular vote here:

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/D

Attorney in Texas

(3,373 posts)
5. When you link the green papers as a source for "the popular vote," what numbers do you believe is
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 10:59 AM
Mar 2016

the popular vote?

Are you of the impression that only the Deep South states have delegates? The contests from March 21 to the convention also have delegates. I focus on states rather than delegates because anyone who tells you they have any idea what the margins will be in these states is either selling you something or too stupid to understand they are mistaken.

MineralMan

(146,192 posts)
12. I use the Green Papers to look at individual states, as well.
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 11:15 AM
Mar 2016

I also watch the national delegate count as it changes. I'm observing results, rather than trying to guess what the future will produce. Another useful site is:

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/delegate-targets/democrats/

There, you can watch how the candidates are doing, compared to the targets they must reach to end up with a majority of pledged delegates.

Observing primary races is a great hobby every four years. It's much easier to do now than it used to be.

 

Motown_Johnny

(22,308 posts)
13. Her firewall was the southern states and she is running out of them.
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 11:16 AM
Mar 2016

If she loses 9 in a row, going 3 weeks without a win, even the MSM and her pet pollsters will need to admit that she is having troubles.


Yes, she is ahead right now. Yes she will be ahead after Super Tuesday. That isn't the end of the race. In some ways, it is just the beginning.



MineralMan

(146,192 posts)
15. Well, there is Florida still to vote.
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 11:18 AM
Mar 2016

That will happen next Tuesday. North Carolina, too. We also have some major eastern seaboard states and rust belt states yet to go. We'll see what happens.

Those southern states, though, have created a good lead in the delegate count that Sanders has to overcome. That's the firewall effect, and it persists, even after those states have voted.

ibegurpard

(16,685 posts)
7. There are many delegates still up for grabs
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 11:06 AM
Mar 2016

Bernie can still win this but he must win convincingly in many of the upcoming states to continue the momentum the Michigan primary shot in the arm just gave him.

jillan

(39,451 posts)
17. I just loved it last nite when the msm kept saying Bernie needs to win a state by more than 2%. OOPS
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 11:21 AM
Mar 2016

Sorry people in Kansas, Vermont, Minnesota, Colorado, New Hampshire, Nebraska, Maine and Oklahoma - guess you don't count.

Attorney in Texas

(3,373 posts)
21. You understand that delegates are pledged by Democrats Abroad, Arizona, Idaho, Utah, Alaska, Hawaii,
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 12:13 PM
Mar 2016

Washington, Wisconsin, Wyoming, etc., right?

You get that.

KingFlorez

(12,689 posts)
22. Clinton will still get delegates from all of those places
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 12:20 PM
Mar 2016

Barring a total shut out in each of those states, Clinton will still get some amount of the delegates. Sanders can't close that gap just by winning those places, he'd have to totally shut her out in some and win other really big to catch up. Sorry.

 

noamnety

(20,234 posts)
23. "Beginning on March 21 "
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 12:34 PM
Mar 2016

Hence all the hysterics about him needing to concede on the 15th and Bernie supporters needing to be silenced or banned on certain websites on that date.

 

senz

(11,945 posts)
48. Yep. They really want to shove her through by brute force.
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 02:23 PM
Mar 2016

By hook or by crook, and that includes subterfuge and psychological games.

We must see through them, ignore them, and keep up our support of the far superior candidate, Bernie Sanders.

 

SheilaT

(23,156 posts)
30. That map looks sort of like a general election
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 12:48 PM
Mar 2016

day map. The yellow went for the Republican candidate, the green for the Democrat. And the gray ones haven't had their polls close yet.

George II

(67,782 posts)
34. There have been five weeks of primaries so far, and after each of those five weeks Clinton's lead...
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 12:56 PM
Mar 2016

...has expanded.

 

randome

(34,845 posts)
36. That's the 'wrong' trend to mention 'round these parts!
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 01:07 PM
Mar 2016

[hr][font color="blue"][center]Aspire to inspire.[/center][/font][hr]

Attorney in Texas

(3,373 posts)
38. She's a regional candidate, and we're almost done with her region. She's only won 3 out of 12 states
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 01:11 PM
Mar 2016

outside of her region (and by a narrow margin in Nevada and super-narrow margins in Iowa and Massachusetts).

Acting like Clinton's performance is anything other than the first at bat in a nine inning game is self-delusional. Sanders is just now coming up to bat!

George II

(67,782 posts)
39. Regional candidate? She's won primaries in the Northeast, South, Midwest, and West....
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 01:15 PM
Mar 2016

...on the other hand Sanders has won primaries only in the Northeast and Midwest.

 

Spitfire of ATJ

(32,723 posts)
42. The media claims turnout is way down thus his "political revolution" is a fizzle....
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 01:34 PM
Mar 2016

Then they spend the next 40 minutes covering the Republicans.

Oh, and then there's a clip of Hillary smiling and shaking the hand of a little girl.

 

senz

(11,945 posts)
49. They don't call it the "corporate" media for nothing.
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 02:30 PM
Mar 2016

Only one candidate represents a threat to the media monopoly. The rest are various flavors of "Republican."


DhhD

(4,695 posts)
43. Arizona-now is a good time to promote Social Security and Medicare.
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 01:44 PM
Mar 2016

And to settle the lies the three Clinton's told about Sanders shutting down ACA, and Medicare. Arizona has Expanded Medicaid. Hope Sanders can lay out his transition plan to single payer healthcare for all.

Clinton's seem to be using Ryan and Romney Plan of 2012 to dirty up Sanders:
http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/article/2012/aug/15/checking-facts-700-billion-medicare-cut/

 

senz

(11,945 posts)
55. I love the way you counter their little "we win you lose" school-boy boasts
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 04:25 PM
Mar 2016

with plain, irrefutable, adult, logic.

pat_k

(9,313 posts)
56. Absolutely on a good trajectory!
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 04:26 PM
Mar 2016

From http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/delegate-targets/democrats/

Delegate targets for yesterday:
MI 67. He got 69
MS 13. He got 4
Total Target 80. He got 73. That's 91% of target. Pretty damn good.

The future positive effect of the win in MI far outweighs missing overall target for the day.

With every primary, he's getting closer.

March 1 -- 83% of cumulative target for that day
March 5 -- 85%
March 8 -- 86%

That's movement is a big deal. He is going in the right direction big time.

And the better he does, the better he'll do. It's one of those virtuous cycles.

jeepers

(314 posts)
60. Democrat vs democrat in a winnable state, a blue state
Thu Mar 10, 2016, 01:29 AM
Mar 2016

Bernie 9 solid victories Hillary three squeakers

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