2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumSanders is right on target! Don't buy into the "Hillary's Winning by Losing" Fable
The argument that Hillary is winning even when she is losing is nonsense.
The primary calendar has been front-loaded to maximize Hillary's chance to win the nomination, and Sanders has survived this political death row.
Next week is the end of Hillary's advantage, and it looks like she would win the Presidency of the Confederacy by a landslide but Sanders is winning the Presidency of the Rest of Us where Sanders has won 9 out of 12 states:
Beginning on March 21 and running through April 9, the primary calendar turns toward the contests where the Democrats and Democrat-voting independents are much more receptive to Sanders' progressive message:
March 21: Democrats Abroad
March 22: Arizona, Idaho, Utah
March 26: Alaska, Hawaii, Washington
April 5: Wisconsin
April 9: Wyoming
Sanders will win most or all of these contests and could quite probably go 9 for 9 if we can get out the vote in Arizona!
This section of the primary calendar will add to the wins Sanders has already banked:
New Hampshire - Sanders won by a wide 22.4% margin
Colorado - Sanders won by a wide 18.5% margin
Minnesota - Sanders won by a wide 23.2% margin
Oklahoma - Sanders won by a wide 10.4% margin
Vermont - Sanders won by a wide 72.5% margin
Kansas - Sanders won by a wide 35.4% margin
Nebraska - Sanders won by a wide 14.2% margin
Maine - Sanders won by a wide 28.8% margin
Michigan - Sanders won by a 2% margin
Sanders has not only won, but when we win, he has set turnout records in Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska (which had a huge turnout despite switching from a primary in 2008 to a caucus in 2016), Maine, and Michigan.
Now that Hillary's run of states is coming to a close and the worm is turning on March 21, Sanders will make up lost ground from March 21 through April 9. Beginning on April 10, we enter the stretch of states which will decide the race (including New York, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Indiana, West Virginia, Oregon, California, Montana, New Mexico, North Dakota, South Dakota, etc.). We are already ahead in many of these states and the others are in reach when you consider that Sanders will be building YUGE momentum from the contests from March 21 through April 9!
Keep donating! Keep phone banking! Keep winning!
kennetha
(3,666 posts)it's a delegate race, not a race for states.
Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)predict delegate allocation, but all of these states that Sanders is likely to win also assign delegates.
If Hillary was going to win this nomination, she would probably have locked down an insurmountable pledged delegate advantage during this phase of the process where she has a huge advantage. She missed that target. She's still the favorite, but she's a much weaker candidate than you realize.
kennetha
(3,666 posts)than Obama EVER enjoyed in 2008.
Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)rgoop
(76 posts)It's possible but not terribly likely and I'm a Bernie supporter. I can see Bernie making up 100 but over 200 won't be easy.
Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)have knocked him out (she failed) and entering the phase where Sanders could catch up somewhat and take the momentum. Sanders needs to use the stretch from March 21 to April 9 to change the momentum so that he takes a national lead and starts winning final-phase states that could go either way. His window to change the momentum opens in one week.
Motown_Johnny
(22,308 posts)MineralMan
(146,192 posts)And the delegate count is what will determine who gets the nomination. Yesterday, Clinton increased her lead in the delegate count, despite a narrow loss in Michigan. Every state's delegates are allocated according to the people's votes. In close elections, delegates are allocated to both candidates in numbers that are not widely different.
In Michigan, for example, Bernie earned 69 delegates, and Hillary earned 61. In Mississippi, Bernie won 4 delegates, while Hillary won 32. The result is a net gain for Hillary in the nationwide delegate totals.
You can follow the delegate count and the popular vote here:
http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/D
Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)the popular vote?
Are you of the impression that only the Deep South states have delegates? The contests from March 21 to the convention also have delegates. I focus on states rather than delegates because anyone who tells you they have any idea what the margins will be in these states is either selling you something or too stupid to understand they are mistaken.
MineralMan
(146,192 posts)I also watch the national delegate count as it changes. I'm observing results, rather than trying to guess what the future will produce. Another useful site is:
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/delegate-targets/democrats/
There, you can watch how the candidates are doing, compared to the targets they must reach to end up with a majority of pledged delegates.
Observing primary races is a great hobby every four years. It's much easier to do now than it used to be.
Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)MineralMan
(146,192 posts)Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)Motown_Johnny
(22,308 posts)If she loses 9 in a row, going 3 weeks without a win, even the MSM and her pet pollsters will need to admit that she is having troubles.
Yes, she is ahead right now. Yes she will be ahead after Super Tuesday. That isn't the end of the race. In some ways, it is just the beginning.
MineralMan
(146,192 posts)That will happen next Tuesday. North Carolina, too. We also have some major eastern seaboard states and rust belt states yet to go. We'll see what happens.
Those southern states, though, have created a good lead in the delegate count that Sanders has to overcome. That's the firewall effect, and it persists, even after those states have voted.
George II
(67,782 posts)cherokeeprogressive
(24,853 posts)kgnu_fan
(3,021 posts)ibegurpard
(16,685 posts)Bernie can still win this but he must win convincingly in many of the upcoming states to continue the momentum the Michigan primary shot in the arm just gave him.
dana_b
(11,546 posts)and win!!
Thanks for the informative post!
jillan
(39,451 posts)Sorry people in Kansas, Vermont, Minnesota, Colorado, New Hampshire, Nebraska, Maine and Oklahoma - guess you don't count.
Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)KingFlorez
(12,689 posts)The children will never learn. It's the damn delegates.
Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)Washington, Wisconsin, Wyoming, etc., right?
You get that.
KingFlorez
(12,689 posts)Barring a total shut out in each of those states, Clinton will still get some amount of the delegates. Sanders can't close that gap just by winning those places, he'd have to totally shut her out in some and win other really big to catch up. Sorry.
noamnety
(20,234 posts)Hence all the hysterics about him needing to concede on the 15th and Bernie supporters needing to be silenced or banned on certain websites on that date.
Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)jillan
(39,451 posts)#NeverSurrenderBernie
arcane1
(38,613 posts)senz
(11,945 posts)By hook or by crook, and that includes subterfuge and psychological games.
We must see through them, ignore them, and keep up our support of the far superior candidate, Bernie Sanders.
Buzz Clik
(38,437 posts)Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)George II
(67,782 posts)SheilaT
(23,156 posts)day map. The yellow went for the Republican candidate, the green for the Democrat. And the gray ones haven't had their polls close yet.
Omaha Steve
(99,073 posts)DU for Bernie: https://secure.actblue.com/contribute/page/duforbernie
JPR for Bernie: https://secure.actblue.com/contribute/page/jackpineradicals4bernie
Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)AzDar
(14,023 posts)George II
(67,782 posts)...has expanded.
randome
(34,845 posts)[hr][font color="blue"][center]Aspire to inspire.[/center][/font][hr]
Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)outside of her region (and by a narrow margin in Nevada and super-narrow margins in Iowa and Massachusetts).
Acting like Clinton's performance is anything other than the first at bat in a nine inning game is self-delusional. Sanders is just now coming up to bat!
George II
(67,782 posts)...on the other hand Sanders has won primaries only in the Northeast and Midwest.
Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)George II
(67,782 posts)senz
(11,945 posts)Faux pas
(14,583 posts)Spitfire of ATJ
(32,723 posts)Then they spend the next 40 minutes covering the Republicans.
Oh, and then there's a clip of Hillary smiling and shaking the hand of a little girl.
Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)Spitfire of ATJ
(32,723 posts)senz
(11,945 posts)Only one candidate represents a threat to the media monopoly. The rest are various flavors of "Republican."
DhhD
(4,695 posts)And to settle the lies the three Clinton's told about Sanders shutting down ACA, and Medicare. Arizona has Expanded Medicaid. Hope Sanders can lay out his transition plan to single payer healthcare for all.
Clinton's seem to be using Ryan and Romney Plan of 2012 to dirty up Sanders:
http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/article/2012/aug/15/checking-facts-700-billion-medicare-cut/
senz
(11,945 posts)Just a thought...
Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)Flying Squirrel
(3,041 posts)Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)senz
(11,945 posts)with plain, irrefutable, adult, logic.
Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)pat_k
(9,313 posts)From http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/delegate-targets/democrats/
Delegate targets for yesterday:
MI 67. He got 69
MS 13. He got 4
Total Target 80. He got 73. That's 91% of target. Pretty damn good.
The future positive effect of the win in MI far outweighs missing overall target for the day.
With every primary, he's getting closer.
March 1 -- 83% of cumulative target for that day
March 5 -- 85%
March 8 -- 86%
That's movement is a big deal. He is going in the right direction big time.
And the better he does, the better he'll do. It's one of those virtuous cycles.
Vote2016
(1,198 posts)jeepers
(314 posts)Bernie 9 solid victories Hillary three squeakers