2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumThe nomination by the numbers, and a little perspective:
(numbers may vary slightly, but not much)
Total Delegates:
4483
Delegates needed for the nomination:
2242
Current overall delegate count:
Clinton 1238 (55% of 2242)
Sanders 572 (21% of 2242)
Remaining delegates needed for the nomination:
Clinton 1004 (38% of remaining delegates)
Sanders 1670 (62% of remaining delegates)
The bottom line is that Sanders will need to win the remaining 29 states by an overall average of 62%. Each time he loses a state or wins a state by less than 62% that average goes up.
Buzz Clik
(38,437 posts)JonLeibowitz
(6,282 posts)Hopefully you are expecting nothing less.
Adrahil
(13,340 posts)And I like the cut of your jib.
I think Bernie will still lose, but I admire the dedication without denial.
NurseJackie
(42,862 posts)Congrats, Bernie ... but it's not good enough apparently.
Gothmog
(144,005 posts)Super delegates will be hard to flip but it will be interesting to see people try
ibegurpard
(16,685 posts)With a majority of pledged delegates from primary wins and super delegates flip the result the party dies.
morningfog
(18,115 posts)There are 2730 pledged delegates outstanding for either to get to the majority of 2026 pledged delegates.
Hillary needs 1257 to get to 2026, or 46%
Bernie needs 1474 to get to 2026, or 54%
And there are 35 total contests with delegates up for grabs, not just 29. Sanders needs 54% of the outstanding delegates, not 62%.
Juicy_Bellows
(2,427 posts)hobbit709
(41,694 posts)oasis
(49,152 posts)Response to George II (Original post)
thesquanderer This message was self-deleted by its author.
morningfog
(18,115 posts)George II
(67,782 posts)....votes in all the remaining states (and territories) to overcome even a 10% deficit.
Besides, American Samoa and Americans Abroad have already voted, and the three territories remaining have a grand total of 18 delegates. He's not going to close an approximate 220 delegate gap by winning half of primaries that have only 6 delegates each.
And you'll note that I did say that the numbers of pledged delegates may vary by a few. Big whoops, I was off by about 300, but your numbers are off by twice that ("majority of the total pledged delegates is 2,026. There are 2,739 pledged delegates remaining" That brings your total of pledged delegates to 4763, about 700 higher than there really are.
So if you're going to be critical of my numbers, it would be great if your numbers were correct when you lead us to another OP that claims to contain "the CORRECT math".
I know it's discouraging to realize, but Sanders has virtually no chance of winning the nomination, no matter how the numbers are manipulated.
morningfog
(18,115 posts)Puerto Rico has 60 pledged delegates.
THe majority of pledged delegates is 2,026. There are a grand total of 4,051. Of which 2,739 are outstanding. Try to follow.
My numbers are right. I never claimed it would be easy, but at least you should be accurate. Bernie needs 54% of the remaining pledged delegates to win the majority of the pledged delegates.
Let me help you with a source so you won't be so damned confused: http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/D-PU.phtml
You're welcome!
Sancho
(9,065 posts)The PR community in Florida also polls super strong for Hillary.
morningfog
(18,115 posts)George II
(67,782 posts)morningfog
(18,115 posts)George II
(67,782 posts)So here's the math as YOU put it.
There are 4051 pledged delegates. That's fine.
It will take 2026 pledged delegates to reach a majority of pledged delegates, that's fine.
You're good up until there. But where you're going off track is thinking that it will take 2026 pledged delegates to win. That is wrong. It will take 2383 delegates to win a majority of the 4765 total delegates. That 2383 can be any mix of pledged delegates and superdelegates.
A superdelegate's vote has exactly the same value as a pledged delegate - one.
I'm not confused in the least, and I got my delegate totals from the same source, albeit, I downloaded the delegate counts way back in the spring, and they've changed since then. My biggest error was not updating my spreadsheet for almost a year. But the facts I've presented remain but for the minor math error that I've now corrected.
You?
morningfog
(18,115 posts)will be the nominee.
The super delegates will not usurp the pledged delegate winner. It won't happen. At this point they are irrelevant to the math.
George II
(67,782 posts)pat_k
(9,313 posts)Here's a look at how it's going relative to targets. From http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/delegate-targets/democrats/
Delegate targets for yesterday:
MI 67. He got 69
MS 13. He got 4
Total Target 80. He got 73. That's 91% of target. Pretty damn good.
The future positive effect of the win in MI far outweighs missing overall target for the day.
With every primary, he's getting closer.
March 1 -- 83% of cumulative target for that day
March 5 -- 85%
March 8 -- 86%
That's movement is a big deal. He is going in the right direction big time.
And the better he does, the better he'll do. It's one of those virtuous cycles. If it gets exponential, all bets are off!
pat_k
(9,313 posts)George II
(67,782 posts)Clinton's target through last night was 681, she's at 770, or 113% of target. Sanders' target through last night was 639, he's at 551, or only 86% of target. This is after about 1/3 of the pledged delegates have now been selected.
There are eight data points (primary/caucus dates) on that chart. Starting on February 1, Clinton has been above her target after each of the eight dates. On the other hand, Sanders has below his target after each of those dates.
The point is that each day that Sanders doesn't reach his target, Clinton exceeds hers. He may not fail to meet his target by less on some days than others, but he's going to have to start exceeding his targets in order to close the gap.
pat_k
(9,313 posts)...of cumulative target won is increasing about 1% each primary/caucus day.
There are 15 more days on which elections are scheduled. If he continues on the current trajectory -- 1% gain on each primary/caucus day -- he is over the top at the end. (He needs to gain only 14% to win 50% of pledged Ds).
And if his trajectory starts moving more exponentially -- if momentum builds up -- he goes over no problem.
revbones
(3,660 posts)pat_k
(9,313 posts)Targets based on polls alone wouldn't put him over the top. I'm not sure if they just added some set percentage "overperformace" to each polling average, or what, but with a quick look, it appears the targets are generally about 20% over polling.
As I look at it, the targets are nice because they adjust expectations/hopes for a given primary/caucus day. For example, the target for MS was based on getting about 35% of the vote. Still a substantial loss, but even at that, a long shot given that he was polling around 15%. Coming out behind Hillary on delegates on a given day doesn't mean much. What matters is how he performs against targets. (i.e., It's great to have more delegates than target for given day, even if that's fewer delegates than Hillary).
Perhaps it's not all that helpful, but I find it so. In any event, Sanders cumulative "underperformance" is about 14%. That's a good bit less than the current 60/40 split in pledged delegates would indicate. And, as I point out, he is increasing the percentage of cumulative target won as he goes. A sign of good momentum.
Iliyah
(25,111 posts)Sometimes math is hard - LOL
And super delegates are not gonna change especially since HRC is way ahead of her delegate count. Dream on, oh wait . . . LOL
George II
(67,782 posts)Iliyah
(25,111 posts)I also see a clear path to the nomination even tho the NRA and Koch Brother's are helping him.
dana_b
(11,546 posts)One every 5 minutes or so? ALL with incorrect math (because you insist on including SDs who can and WOULD change their minds if Bernie wins)!
Time to start trashing threads.