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EndElectoral

(4,213 posts)
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 11:27 AM Mar 2016

Mississippi and why Clinton will struggle in the GE

Clinton scored a landslide in the Mississippi Primary 83% to 17% and won 29 to 4 delegates. A great victory. Or was it?

When one compares the voter turnout of the Republicans and Democrats in Mississippi, it is as follows:

Republicans - 394167 votes
Democrats - 218566 votes

Almost all of Clinton's victories have come in southern dixie states where comparing the GOP popular vote totals to the Dems totals (regardless of your preferred candidate) would show significant defeats for the Democratic Party in the South. In other words while these southern states help her delegate count, they are almost assuredly red states in the GE.

Which means Clinton's blue state victories are barely Iowa, and the two inner cities of Boston, and Detroit. Her trade policies have not played out well in the rustbelt, and she has been banking on inner city African American support. She is getting that, but not in the numbers Obama did.

It will be difficult if she continues to lose or struggle in northern states, particularly Ohio which has in the last two decades been a swing state. My guess is Kasich will be put on the VP ticket to enhance the Ohio vote if he doesn't get handed the nomination on a brokered convention where neither Trump nor Cruz can get the 50% needed for nomination.

She must start expanding her vote in the north beyond the African American voter base, and in fact needs to have even better numbers than she did in Detroit. My guess is Clinton will pick up Florida, Kentucky and North Carolina, but from that point on the South is done and she'll be facing much rougher primaries.

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Mississippi and why Clinton will struggle in the GE (Original Post) EndElectoral Mar 2016 OP
She will probably win in NC --- Mother Of Four Mar 2016 #1

Mother Of Four

(1,716 posts)
1. She will probably win in NC ---
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 11:30 AM
Mar 2016

But I really don't think it will be as far a spread as others think. Unaffiliated (Indies) can vote in the primaries here. We'll just have to see.

You are absolutely right though, if she can't get the northern states on board and she's the nominee...we're in deep doo doo.

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