2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumClinton leads Sanders by more than 2 to 1 in Florida, Post-Univision poll finds
WaPo.
Art_from_Ark
(27,247 posts)I think I read that somewhere
CajunBlazer
(5,648 posts)Art_from_Ark
(27,247 posts)Lizzie Poppet
(10,164 posts)Closed primaries favor Hillary (although not by as much as some of her supporters may think). Will they favor her enough to arrest the obvious momentum shift? Yeah, maybe...it's Florida, after all. One must adjust one's expectations...
merbex
(3,123 posts)When it is open, Independents can come in and vote too and that gives a good indication of strength for November.
So far, Bernie Sanders is crushing her in Open Primaries.
That is a red flag if we nominate her in November.
She HAS to win, any candidate to win the Presidency, MUST WIN Independent.
She had proven she cannot.
Stallion
(6,474 posts)nm
Octafish
(55,745 posts)There were a number -- large from what I'm hearing -- of DEMs who like both Bernie and Hillary who crossed ballots to vote for Kasich, saying better the not-insane turd than one of the loonies.
EmperorHasNoClothes
(4,797 posts)The "open caucus" meme doesn't hold up to reality.
Octafish
(55,745 posts)NWCorona
(8,541 posts)"Florida's no party affiliation/independent voters seem to have noticed.
"We are seeing a tremendous volume of political party changes," said Susan Bucher, the Palm Beach County supervisor of elections, who reported a "steady clip of people in all the offices" since the beginning of February. She said the interest "seemed to be stirred by Iowa," which held its presidential caucuses on Feb. 1."
We just don't know which way these people are going yet.
http://www.sun-sentinel.com/sports/golf/fl-voter-registration-changes-deadline-20160212-story.html
AtomicKitten
(46,585 posts)CajunBlazer
(5,648 posts)So they can vote in the "interesting primary. One thing Bernie has not done is bring more people into the party - participation is way up in the Republican primaries and caucuses and down in the Democratic contests.
TM99
(8,352 posts)wrong here.
Yes, independents can not show up on the day of the election and vote in either party primary in a closed state.
But they can register for either party in the months prior. This is happening in many of these so-called closed primary states. How do we know? Because the number of registered Democratic voters has increased from 23% late last fall to 30% at the end of February.
We are joining the Democratic Party specifically so we can vote for Sanders. Ignoring this reality is going to harm the party in the fall if they don't pay attention to these numbers, the previous numbers, voter turnouts in 'blue' and 'red' states, and the number of independents and long-time registered Democrats who will leave the party if Clinton gets the nom.
CajunBlazer
(5,648 posts)So they can vote in the "interesting primary. One thing Bernie has not done is bring more people into the party - participation is way up in the Republican primaries and caucuses and down in the Democratic contests.
TM99
(8,352 posts)The stats from Michigan alone disprove this.
Wake up y'all.
CajunBlazer
(5,648 posts)It interesting that you only mentioned the Michigan primary. It is a fact it is the only Democratic primary to date that drew more voters than 2008. Only the one caucus drew more voters and that state didn't have a caucus in 2008. Overall turnout for Democratic primaries and caucuses is down 30% from that of 2008. Where is the enthusiasm and new voters across the country that Bernie Sanders was supposed to bring to the Democratic Party?
TM99
(8,352 posts)You throw out some comment that independents are for Trump, and I am parsing the facts?
Y'all are in rare form tonight!
CajunBlazer
(5,648 posts).... when a poster can't figure out how to effectively counter someone else's post is to attempt to laugh it it off to cover the fact that they can't come up with something substantive to say.
The fact is that the Republican turnout in almost everyone of their primaries and caucuses was much higher than the turnout in 2008 and 2012. I contribute that only to those who back Trump, but also as much to those who would do anything to stop Trump. It is also a fact that, except for Michigan primary and caucus, the Democratic turnout is down 30%.
I am sorry you can't deal with the facts.
TM99
(8,352 posts)has nothing to do with your claim that independents are voting for Republicans. It is cyclical and they are turing out in large numbers to take back the White House.
I am laughing at you because you are constructing an argument based on an assumption that does not match the facts.
Where is the emoticon that rolls his eyes and shakes his head when you need it?
TM99
(8,352 posts)were the last resort of someone with no counter-argument?
timmymoff
(1,947 posts)Up until he won a few he wasn't getting any airtime.. now he is, finally. A revolution doesn't
happen overnight and Bernie will be looking forward to all the Hillary supporters joining in registering new progressive voters that Hillary doesn't seem to attract. If you want to have a future as a party you need to welcome the new people not push them away. She inspires few with her "can't do" attitude. She doesn't inspire those who left the party (mainly due to third way policies) to remain if she is the candidate. Her untrustworthy numbers are through the roof and she earned them by being on every side of every issue. Why isn't Hillary inspiring new legions of voters? That's right, I just told you why.
Octafish
(55,745 posts)And Detroit came out and VOTED. From what I understand: more than 31-percent of registered voters in the city turned out for the primary. That is amazing, considering only about 15-percent came out in the last primary.
Statewide, twice as many voted in the primary as in the last primary. And that's how the Clinton Machine got beat.
Dr Hobbitstein
(6,568 posts)Lizzie Poppet
(10,164 posts)Dr Hobbitstein
(6,568 posts)It's the first time we've ever agreed on a primary candidate. In '08 she was in Richardson's camp and I was in Kucinich's. Of course, we live in FL, so we didn't vote in the '08 primary.
Lizzie Poppet
(10,164 posts)Which I probably shouldn't do...given how divisive things have been, it's way too easy for smartass remarks to go horribly wrong.
Best to ya...
Dr Hobbitstein
(6,568 posts)One of the 99
(2,280 posts)Octafish
(55,745 posts)Voters didn't do what WaPo's owner wanted.
kristopher
(29,798 posts)Because Floridas is a closed primary, only Republicans and Democrats may vote independents are left out.
http://miami.cbslocal.com/2016/03/08/thousands-take-part-in-early-voting-in-south-florida/
That 44% = 528,000 Dem votes already locked in.
Hope Bernie does well, but let's keep it real and not expect another Michigan at least until we get past the 15th.
flamingdem
(39,312 posts)and now wish they voted Bernie.
Le Taz Hot
(22,271 posts)Doesn't surprise me.
Octafish
(55,745 posts)She may wish she had been more, ah, liberal minded as a Democratic leader.
Le Taz Hot
(22,271 posts)I oughtta call Skittles on you!
Octafish
(55,745 posts)...along comes someone with a great big hug and it changes everything.
Friends, Le Taz Hot!
Arazi
(6,829 posts)it sure seems to incentivize his campaign. That said I'm pretty sure she wins Florida
But yeah baby, bring on these huge margins ahead of time! They seem to be the best predictor of a Sanders win
Octafish
(55,745 posts)Imagine what Bernie could do with an honest news media?
Astound. Astound!
Matt_in_STL
(1,446 posts)You know, take a day to lick the wounds and such. Maybe reposition the altar to Nate Silver.
Octafish
(55,745 posts)I'm not one of "Them."
http://www.democraticunderground.com/~Octafish
EndElectoral
(4,213 posts)Octafish
(55,745 posts)There are a handful of assholes on the Internet who could learn a thing or two from him.
http://www.alternet.org/media/how-washington-post-writers-attack-bernies-civil-rights-record-completely-backfired
CorkySt.Clair
(1,507 posts)After last night.
Octafish
(55,745 posts)Guy was at 3-percent when it started.
Now he's at 50.49 in Michigan.
By the time November comes around, I'll bet it'll be closer to 75.
BernieforPres2016
(3,017 posts)Seriously, I don't expect Bernie to win Florida with it being a closed primary. Independents won it for him in Michigan yesterday. But I suspect he will come quite a bit closer than 2 to 1.
Octafish
(55,745 posts)Who knows what the real numbers are?
Who cares what the numbers are or were?
What matters: What will they be after the votes are counted?
bobthedrummer
(26,083 posts)"Both Clintons declined to be interviewed or comment for this article."
http://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/politics/clinton-money
WP did give US this Sir. It's valuable. THANK YOU ALL, MICHIGAN!!!! I have to wait until April 5 to vote here in WALKERSTAN.
POLLS are meaningless now.
SheilaT
(23,156 posts)I'm still recovering from her blowout there!
Wait, what? Oh, never mind.
Octafish
(55,745 posts)Octafish Takeaway Message (thank you, stevenleser, wherever you are!):
[font color="blue"][font size="6"]Never Give Up.[/font size][/font color]
Mufaddal
(1,021 posts)My hope is that we stay viable. Florida is a closed primary. The polls matter a lot more in that regard. It's also my understanding that we've had next to no ground game there until just now. I will definitely be watching the Latin@ vote there, but beyond that I'm not expecting too much.
Kalidurga
(14,177 posts)If he wins, I am gonna grave dance on Hillary's campaign.
JackInGreen
(2,975 posts)Leave the dancing for Shiva, let's try and be nicer than our ignoble opposition.
Kalidurga
(14,177 posts)They started with NOT GOOD ENOUGH BERNIE and have played as if we are all sexists and we want to take health care away from people. Really they say this even to AA people on the boards.
JackInGreen
(2,975 posts)Which makes it all the better to be kind...er...ish. let's just not grave dance (as a generality, Fat Tony and his ilk not withstanding).
Kalidurga
(14,177 posts)I am sure Hillary will be back to normal in a couple of days after losing.
ibegurpard
(16,685 posts)Hopefully the Michigan momentum will help close the gap. We will see.
Beacool
(30,247 posts)Hillary won the majority of Democratic votes in MI, but lost the Independent vote to Sanders. MI is an open state. I think that Hillary will do well in FL.
Response to Octafish (Original post)
CajunBlazer This message was self-deleted by its author.
Jarqui
(10,122 posts)CorkySt.Clair
(1,507 posts)The word Post in the thread tilte refers to the Washington Post. It's not a post debate poll.
Blus4u
(608 posts)Bet it would tell a different story
Peace