Welcome to DU! The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards. Join the community: Create a free account Support DU (and get rid of ads!): Become a Star Member Latest Breaking News General Discussion The DU Lounge All Forums Issue Forums Culture Forums Alliance Forums Region Forums Support Forums Help & Search
 

morningfog

(18,115 posts)
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 12:57 PM Mar 2016

In the simplest terms: Bernie needs 54% of the remaining 2,739 pledged delegates, Hillary 46%.

Hillary has 769 pledged delegates.
Bernie has 552.

A majority of the total pledged delegates is 2,026. There are 2,739 pledged delegates remaining.

Hillary needs 1,257 to get to 2,026.
Bernie needs 1,474 to get to 2,026.

Said another way, Hillary needs 46% of the remaining pledged delegates while Bernie needs 54%.

There are 35 contests left to bag the delegates needed. Bernie has some advantage in 26 of those contests be it by geography, a caucus, or a open primary.


For perspective, if Hillary won EVERY delegate in EVERY contest starting now, she wouldn't reach 2,026 until April 19.

23 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
In the simplest terms: Bernie needs 54% of the remaining 2,739 pledged delegates, Hillary 46%. (Original Post) morningfog Mar 2016 OP
That is comforting democrattotheend Mar 2016 #1
I am confident the supers will not be usurpers. morningfog Mar 2016 #2
I am optimistic, but not confident democrattotheend Mar 2016 #19
This message was self-deleted by its author jwirr Mar 2016 #15
Just keep working for Bernie!!!! Phone bank, canvass door to door, anything you can do! LongTomH Mar 2016 #3
Nothing says it better than a good set of numbers edgineered Mar 2016 #4
Thank you for the clarity ... Impedimentus Mar 2016 #5
Barring something going catastrophically wrong with the Clinton campaign ... salinsky Mar 2016 #6
Consider where we were eight months ago. Wilms Mar 2016 #8
Nah ... salinsky Mar 2016 #10
"So" is right! Wilms Mar 2016 #12
It's not that her campaign has been bad Codeine Mar 2016 #13
Her campaign has been awesome. Wilms Mar 2016 #14
He'd have to have more Michigan-esque performances in the future Jon Ace Mar 2016 #9
I think something went catastrophically wrong last night. Cavallo Mar 2016 #18
proportional delegates make it tough 6chars Mar 2016 #7
Yes ... salinsky Mar 2016 #11
What math? I keep hearing that but the only math I've seen saw Bernie losing by 20+... kristopher Mar 2016 #23
So funny how the msm points this out when it comes to Cruz but totally ignores that fact when jillan Mar 2016 #16
Thank you! Good post! Cavallo Mar 2016 #17
Matching my math nadinbrzezinski Mar 2016 #20
And another analysis to consider: pat_k Mar 2016 #21
K&R kristopher Mar 2016 #22

democrattotheend

(11,605 posts)
1. That is comforting
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 01:00 PM
Mar 2016

I guess the post earlier that made it look insurmountable included superdelegates, which I don't think makes sense because they can switch. In 2008, I was reasonably confident that if Obama won the pledged delegates, the superdelegates would not overturn the will of the primary voters. This year I am not so sure that will be the case, but the last time the party elders overrode the will of Democratic primary voters, it didn't work out so well for them.

democrattotheend

(11,605 posts)
19. I am optimistic, but not confident
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 02:25 PM
Mar 2016

I was confident they would not do it to Obama, both because he was the first black nominee of the party and because he had enough insiders who either supported him or at least found him acceptable. The party insiders have been so eager to marginalize Bernie that I wouldn't put it past them to be usurpers.

Response to democrattotheend (Reply #1)

LongTomH

(8,636 posts)
3. Just keep working for Bernie!!!! Phone bank, canvass door to door, anything you can do!
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 01:03 PM
Mar 2016

If the caucus / primary in your state is over, sign up to make phone calls to states that have yet to vote.

edgineered

(2,101 posts)
4. Nothing says it better than a good set of numbers
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 01:12 PM
Mar 2016

Rec for putting it in terms that are easy to understand.

salinsky

(1,065 posts)
6. Barring something going catastrophically wrong with the Clinton campaign ...
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 01:19 PM
Mar 2016

... I just don't see how Bernie can get there.

I do think that he's on track to win something just shy of 40% of delegates, and that's nothing to sneeze at.

That will give him tremendous leverage with the platform and rule writing committees at the convention.

My hat's off to him.

He's run one hell of a campaign.

 

Wilms

(26,795 posts)
8. Consider where we were eight months ago.
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 01:36 PM
Mar 2016

Peeps said the same thing about Sanders even get out of the gate.

Apparently, something already has been going catastrophically wrong with the Clinton campaign.

salinsky

(1,065 posts)
10. Nah ...
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 01:43 PM
Mar 2016

... I think Hillary's campaign is fine.

Bernie has just been much, much stronger than anyone anticipated.

I'm talking about a major health scare or an indictment (which is not going to happen IMHO), when I say something will have to go catastrophically wrong.

But, I've been wrong about just about every other thing in this primary season, so ...

 

Codeine

(25,586 posts)
13. It's not that her campaign has been bad
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 01:47 PM
Mar 2016

so much as his has proven much stronger than anticipated. Strong enough to win? Remains to be seen. Strong enough that he needs to be respected? Damn right.

 

Wilms

(26,795 posts)
14. Her campaign has been awesome.
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 01:51 PM
Mar 2016

To those who think it is, anyways.

Bernie needed to be respected from Day 1. DNC had no reason to back a candidate until the General.

Would love to see DWS join HRC in the private sector.

Jon Ace

(243 posts)
9. He'd have to have more Michigan-esque performances in the future
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 01:42 PM
Mar 2016

and by much wider margins.

Doable, but difficult.

Cavallo

(348 posts)
18. I think something went catastrophically wrong last night.
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 02:02 PM
Mar 2016

by between 11 and 25 percentage points.

It was said to be historical in how off the outcome was from the predictions.

kristopher

(29,798 posts)
23. What math? I keep hearing that but the only math I've seen saw Bernie losing by 20+...
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 06:34 PM
Mar 2016

...points in Michigan last night.

So when you say "the math is tough" I'd be grateful if you'd share it so we can all look at it.

The reason being is that "math" is actually just the arithmetic and I'll trust that most analysis do the arithmetic properly. What they haven't been doing is making proper assumptions about what numbers to consider and how those numbers are juggled BEFORE the final calculations are made.

Clear so far?

By way of example let's try a simple mental exercise.

We have had contests in 21 of 50 states with 29 remaining contests ahead.

So that means that Hillary racked up the "insurmountable" lead in only 21 of the states, right.

There are 29 states still to vote, right?

So just on the face of it, if it was possible for Hillary (by whatever edge she had) to accumulate the lead she now has, what is so stupid about saying that there is MORE opportunity for Bernie to erase that lead via the 29 remaining states?

To deny that obvious "math" requires a whole raft of assumptions to either be accepted OR rejected since many or the assumptions are mutually exclusive.

Do you understand now that you are not talking about MATH, you are talking about extremely subjective ANALYSIS.

jillan

(39,451 posts)
16. So funny how the msm points this out when it comes to Cruz but totally ignores that fact when
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 01:56 PM
Mar 2016

it comes to Bernie.

Latest Discussions»Retired Forums»2016 Postmortem»In the simplest terms: Be...