Independent Voters

[div style="font-weight:bold;display:table-row;width:100%"][div style="display:table-cell;text-align:center;padding:5px;width: 71%;background-color:rgb(0,0,255);color:white"]Bernie 71%
[div style="display:table-cell;text-align:center;padding:5px;width:28%;background-color:red;color:white"]Hillary 28%

even though he says Bernie's policies align much better with his own

While some independents may truly favor an outsider no matter what, if they have other reasons for voting Dem in the primary, then those reasons will likely prevail in the GE and they will vote Dem again. There is no basis in reality to assume that every (or even most) independent Sanders primary voter will defect to the Repubs in November given how they are in opposition to Bernie on almost everything.

Yes, some independent voters will switch; but certainly not 75% or more of them, especially if Trump is the Repub nominee. Most independents don't hate Hillary nearly as much as DU's Bernie supporters hate her.

With such a massive gap, however, it stands to reason that there will be a good number of those independents who will not vote for Hillary, regardless. Progressive independents will often find her too conservative to ever vote for. Some moderate independents will have voted for Bernie as an outsider, and are more likely to switch to Trump, another outsider. Obviously there is no party loyalty motivation, as there often is with Democrats who prefer a candidate other than the nominee.

I suspect what you consider to be many is quite different from how I would quantify that same number of people. I certainly don't think anywhere near a majority of Sanders' independent primary votes will switch parties in the GE.

I'm not comfortable with citing a percentage on that...just not enough data to make any such empirical speculation useful. That is, I could probably cite a range of percentages into which I think it will almost certainly fall, but it would be too wide for any real utility. I do this general sort of thing for a living (not polling, philosophy of science), and even in a totally informal discussion, tossing numbers around that are based largely on my gut feeling gives me the heebie-jeebies!

I will say I agree that it's not likely to be a majority (barring any developments that might further alienate Bernie-inclined independents to an even greater degree).

Well there is this analysis:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/01/26/independents-like-hillary-clinton-less-than-in-2008/


Based on the links I already provided and the information on her performance with Independents in 2008 there is no viable conjecture that supports her ability to carry enough Independents to win a swing state.

I admit a wingnut like tRump creates a minor "wild card" factor but based on real world performance and support there is no evidence to support the conjecture that it won't mirror his performance in the GE. If teapublicans really hated him than Cruz or Rubio would be in the lead, not him. FYI, Sanders beats him with Independents as well.