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bigtree

(85,977 posts)
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 02:24 PM Mar 2016

32.6% percent of all pledged convention delegates have already been awarded to Hillary, 60/40 margin

from Nate Cohn at NYT:


If Mr. Sanders’s victory in Michigan could be explained easily by some quirk in the state, perhaps Mrs. Clinton and her allies could write it off. But without an explanation, one has to wonder whether it will be the start of a trend — a bad sign for Mrs. Clinton’s chances in other industrial states like Ohio, Illinois, Missouri, Indiana and Pennsylvania. Maybe it’s a reason to take the Sanders campaign’s assertions of strength in California or New York — two states where Mrs. Clinton ought to be favored — more seriously.

But in the end, none of it seems like quite enough for a victory for Mr. Sanders. Mrs. Clinton has already banked too much of a lead. As an example, the PredictWise chances for a Clinton victory changed only from 95 percent to 93 percent from Tuesday to today...


(32.6?) percent of all of the pledged delegates to the Democratic National Convention have already been awarded. She’s won those delegates by roughly a 60-40 margin.

To overcome it, Mr. Sanders will need to do nearly as well from this point on. Not even the very strong showing for Mr. Sanders imagined above would be enough.

In fact, it still wouldn’t be very close. Mr. Sanders basically splits the delegates with Mrs. Clinton the rest of the way — leaving him far short of the big 15-point advantage he needs.

Mrs. Clinton still wins clear victories in diverse or affluent states like Florida, North Carolina, Maryland and New Jersey — the only four states where she breaks 55 percent of the vote in this projection. The problem for Mr. Sanders is that many of these states are far larger than the places where he hopes to excel.

The reality is that the Democratic delegate rules, which award delegates proportionally, make it extremely hard for Mr. Sanders to dig himself out of the hole he’s already in. Indeed, he fell short of winning 60 percent of the delegates in Michigan on Tuesday night, despite the upset win. As a result, his burden in future contests grew a little larger.

Mr. Sanders needs landslides to counter landslides. Not even the results from Tuesday suggest he’s on pace to get them, at least not in states with enough delegates to counter Mrs. Clinton’s lead.


read more: http://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/10/upshot/bernie-sanderss-win-in-michiganprobably-wont-change-therace.html?smprod=nytcore-iphone&smid=nytcore-iphone-share&_r=0

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32.6% percent of all pledged convention delegates have already been awarded to Hillary, 60/40 margin (Original Post) bigtree Mar 2016 OP
Somebody's nervous. n/t Dawgs Mar 2016 #1
still looks like a Clinton nom bigtree Mar 2016 #2
This message was self-deleted by its author floppyboo Mar 2016 #3
The math is not in his favor. TTUBatfan2008 Mar 2016 #4
good worst case scenario projection in the article bigtree Mar 2016 #7
Apparently you don't know what a pledged delegate is. Nt HooptieWagon Mar 2016 #5
what are you going on about? bigtree Mar 2016 #8
546/760=42/58 n/t thomservo Mar 2016 #6
round the numbers off bigtree Mar 2016 #11
FFS... gcomeau Mar 2016 #9
that looks right bigtree Mar 2016 #16
She needs to win 46% of remaining delegates. He needs to win 54% of remaining delegates. ieoeja Mar 2016 #17
No. There is no finite number of pledged delegates required for either candidate. However... George II Mar 2016 #28
It's not over til it's over, and adjusting expectations Hortensis Mar 2016 #10
Part of Clinton's support hinges on the electability argument Tom Rinaldo Mar 2016 #12
They said she was going to win Michigan too. tabasco Mar 2016 #13
this isn't about stopping the vote bigtree Mar 2016 #20
And don't forget little mentioned Maine floppyboo Mar 2016 #23
Your headline could use a "so far." Lizzie Poppet Mar 2016 #14
If your math is correct and Clinton has 43% of awarded delegates then there is 57% left for Bernie. jillan Mar 2016 #15
It's nowhere near correct. Clinton has 18.9% of total pledged delegates. gcomeau Mar 2016 #18
Good article. bravenak Mar 2016 #19
yep bigtree Mar 2016 #21
I follow him too bravenak Mar 2016 #22
And Hillary SuperDs are already committing to vote for PledgedD winner pat_k Mar 2016 #24
That's only three of her ~450. What about the other 447? George II Mar 2016 #29
They aren't included in FiveThirtyEight tracking for a reason. pat_k Mar 2016 #31
Spin fail again hobbit709 Mar 2016 #25
Past performance is no guarantee of future results ... VMA131Marine Mar 2016 #26
k&r bigtree Mar 2016 #27
The Washington Insider Take is That Hillary's Super Delegates Won't Switch, Just Watch As They Start Impedimentus Mar 2016 #30

bigtree

(85,977 posts)
2. still looks like a Clinton nom
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 02:27 PM
Mar 2016

...two-points in MI isn't going to cut it for Bernie.


"The reality is that the Democratic delegate rules, which award delegates proportionally, make it extremely hard for Mr. Sanders to dig himself out of the hole he’s already in. Indeed, he fell short of winning 60 percent of the delegates in Michigan on Tuesday night, despite the upset win. As a result, his burden in future contests grew a little larger."

Response to bigtree (Original post)

TTUBatfan2008

(3,623 posts)
4. The math is not in his favor.
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 02:32 PM
Mar 2016

I'm curious to see if Michigan was a fluke or if he can duplicate that performance in Ohio and other states where the polls have him down big. I think he got blown out by too much in the southern states to win. You can't lose a bunch of large states by 40-50 points or more and expect to get the nomination.

bigtree

(85,977 posts)
7. good worst case scenario projection in the article
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 02:37 PM
Mar 2016

"Imagine, for instance, a brutal stretch for Mrs. Clinton, one where she underperforms the demographic projections by as much as she did in Michigan for the rest of the year.

She loses in Ohio and Missouri next Tuesday...more"

 

gcomeau

(5,764 posts)
9. FFS...
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 02:39 PM
Mar 2016

Total Pledged Delegates Available: 4051

Clinton Pledged Delegates: 768

% of Pledged Delegates already awarded to Clinton: 18.9%

(% of Pledged Delegates already awarded to Sanders: 13.6%)


You might want to fix that ridiculously misleading headline.

bigtree

(85,977 posts)
16. that looks right
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 02:47 PM
Mar 2016

...wait, I think the writer is changing that in his article..

just found this on his twitter:

Datoism @Datoism
@Nate_Cohn i believe there is a mistake in your latest article delegate count
http://goo.gl/CnttoI



Nate Cohn ?@Nate_Cohn 1h1 hour ago
I think this is right/ I messed up. Will correct

 

ieoeja

(9,748 posts)
17. She needs to win 46% of remaining delegates. He needs to win 54% of remaining delegates.
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 02:48 PM
Mar 2016

The "math does not work" meme does not work.


George II

(67,782 posts)
28. No. There is no finite number of pledged delegates required for either candidate. However...
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 09:02 PM
Mar 2016

...Clinton needs to win 46% of the remaining delegates to achieve a majority of pledged delegates, and Sanders needs to win 54% to achieve a majority of pledged delegates.

Hortensis

(58,785 posts)
10. It's not over til it's over, and adjusting expectations
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 02:39 PM
Mar 2016

just a bit just in case is a good thing for everyone.

Tom Rinaldo

(22,911 posts)
12. Part of Clinton's support hinges on the electability argument
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 02:39 PM
Mar 2016

If that starts getting stripped away from her things can start shifting rapidly. Hell, Michigan shifted rapidly

floppyboo

(2,461 posts)
23. And don't forget little mentioned Maine
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 03:22 PM
Mar 2016

that Sanders won by a difference of 29% (real vote) or + 40% if you want to count the polls from just days before that had Clinton up 10%.
Didn't hear? Oh ya, someone scheduled a debate for return time. Bernie held off his gloating till the very end. I wonder, if the pollsters had been right what the narrative of the debate would have been?

Still shaking my head about this one...

jillan

(39,451 posts)
15. If your math is correct and Clinton has 43% of awarded delegates then there is 57% left for Bernie.
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 02:42 PM
Mar 2016

I'm assuming you're talking about actual delegates, not superdelegates that do not vote until the convention?

pat_k

(9,313 posts)
31. They aren't included in FiveThirtyEight tracking for a reason.
Thu Mar 10, 2016, 03:49 AM
Mar 2016

Super delegates have been unwilling to overturn pledged delegates selection in the past. They are likely to be as unwilling this time around.

Impedimentus

(898 posts)
30. The Washington Insider Take is That Hillary's Super Delegates Won't Switch, Just Watch As They Start
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 09:10 PM
Mar 2016

peeling away as Bernie catches on outside of the Republican Red South. It's happened before and it's Hillary's worst nightmare.
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