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2016 Postmortem

Fast Walker 52

(7,723 posts) Wed Mar 9, 2016, 06:21 PM Mar 2016

How accurate is polling?

A lot political polling still uses landlines to call potential voters. Some of the polling being so off in Michigan could be from Bernie supporters not using landlines.

This article discusses this-- a lot of such polls are not reliable:

http://www.wired.com/2016/03/sanders-michigan-win-shows-pollsters-bernie-blindspot/

But clearly there are other factors too. Primaries are harder to model than general elections.

2 replies

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How accurate is polling? (Original Post) Fast Walker 52 Mar 2016 OP

Caucuses are the worst to poll Godhumor Mar 2016 #1

thanks, makes sense Fast Walker 52 Mar 2016 #2

Godhumor

(6,437 posts)

1. Caucuses are the worst to poll

Reply to Fast Walker 52 (Original post)

Wed Mar 9, 2016, 06:25 PM

Mar 2016

Followed by (Hardest to easiest):
Open primaries
Hybrid primaries
Closed primaries
GE (When candidates have been settled)

GE polling before candidates are settled had been shown time and time again to not be predictive.

Fast Walker 52

(7,723 posts)

2. thanks, makes sense

Reply to Godhumor (Reply #1)

Wed Mar 9, 2016, 08:53 PM

Mar 2016

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