2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumApparently '538' Never Learns... Latest
Keep regurgitating the same storyline and hope it eventually sticks. And this after they write an article on why the Michigan outcome was so off.
Maybe they ought to turn off their glorified numbers-blender for a day and reconfigure their calculators before they continue to embarrass their vocation.
Arazi
(6,829 posts)Win win for Bernie
So yeah, I'm actually hoping HRC supporters post a TON of these in the next few weeks
.
Only helps us as far as I can tell
tomm2thumbs
(13,297 posts)so she gets what she asks for
RunInCircles
(122 posts)Every time you check the difference between polls only and polls plus they increase the lead Clinton has over Bernie in their estimates.
I can understand that the polls only show what they show. Nate's thumb on the scale is that he is assuming any deviation in polled results always breaks Clinton's way.
Renew Deal
(81,801 posts)Godhumor
(6,437 posts)I kid, I kid.
But, yes, I wish more people would read the methodology notes on 538's forecasting.
Renew Deal
(81,801 posts)people will never get it.
CorkySt.Clair
(1,507 posts)I read it here on BU:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/12511452205
Nate Silvers has been doing this for 30 years! Damn.
And yes, it is more than one failure. This is the man who failed miserably in his predictions of the UK election last year, and he was certain Sanders had peaked at least three times before last August.
Yeah, I know, the mantra of math. Except math gets beat by psychological biases.
Godhumor
(6,437 posts)a) They see if the miss is systemic or an anomaly
b) If it is systemic, can the causation be discovered and accounted for
As a result, they're sticking with their developed methodology for the foreseeable future.
tomm2thumbs
(13,297 posts)you don't continue to put the next shuttle out there
Cali_Democrat
(30,439 posts)That's the point.
tomm2thumbs
(13,297 posts)'give or take 25%'
Cali_Democrat
(30,439 posts)tomm2thumbs
(13,297 posts)perhaps right next to their large guestimates in bold print
Cali_Democrat
(30,439 posts)At the very top of the page.
How Were Forecasting The Primaries*
*And why we might be totally wrong.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-we-are-forecasting-the-2016-presidential-primary-election/
-----------------------
Is that visible enough?
tomm2thumbs
(13,297 posts)Ken Burch
(50,254 posts)OK.
Godhumor
(6,437 posts)They're talking about correcting their model based off polls.
Ken Burch
(50,254 posts)Or adjust their forecasts to account for the fact that young voters and people without landlines are being underpolled?
Godhumor
(6,437 posts)Analysts, and I am including myself in this, never make drastic changes to a predictive model based off one result when all other results have been on-spot. The more data that comes in for the next round of contests will show whether changes are warranted.
That said, I am guessing the midst egregious pollster, ARG will simply be weighted next to nothing from now on (They were also horrendous in 2008).
Stuckinthebush
(10,816 posts)Their job is to develop probabilities based on the data available. All the data pointed to a double digit Clinton win in Michigan. Clearly, the pollsters had the model wrong in that state. So, that provides insight into the model 538 uses. But, what do you think 538 does to develop the probabilities? They aren't uses hunches. They are using data. For the large part the data has been very accurate. This was a weird outlier. They will adjust the models accordingly.
I'm just not sure I understand the animosity toward 538. What should they do with the data?
Godhumor
(6,437 posts)So they bear the brunt in a garbage in, garbage out scenario.
Stuckinthebush
(10,816 posts)GIGO
They explain that the data are what they are. If pollsters are unanimous,y wrong then their model will suck. But, that also gives them valuable information about weighting of polls.
Godhumor
(6,437 posts)Starting with observation of the 15th to see if Michigan was an anomaly.
Stuckinthebush
(10,816 posts)They are. Seems prudent.
Cali_Democrat
(30,439 posts)Their model is based on the polls available. If all the polls are wrong, then there's really nothing 538 can do.
randome
(34,845 posts)If not, on what do you base your conclusion that the polls are wrong? Because one poll last night was wrong, maybe?
[hr][font color="blue"][center]Aspire to inspire.[/center][/font][hr]
tomm2thumbs
(13,297 posts)"We would all be well advised to treat the polling coming out today and throughout this week with skepticism," he said.