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Octafish

(55,745 posts)
Sat Mar 19, 2016, 05:18 PM Mar 2016

Here’s How Bernie Sanders Could Win the Nomination



Here’s How Bernie Sanders Could Win the Nomination

by Nate Cohn
The New York Times, MARCH 17, 2016

The worst is over for Bernie Sanders. The primaries in the South are finished, and now the Democratic contest heads north to bluer and, for the most part, whiter states.

Mr. Sanders should fare better over the second half of the primary season, after black voters gave Hillary Clinton such a big advantage in the first half. But the path to a majority of delegates is nonetheless a daunting one. He would need to win the remaining delegates by around a 58-42 percent margin after falling behind again in the delegate count Tuesday night.

A Sanders Hot Streak

It might be very hard for Mr. Sanders to win the remaining states by such a margin — though it might not seem that way at first.

SNIP...

Mr. Sanders is clearly favored to exceed his target — the roughly 16-point, 58-to-42 percent margin of victory — in six of the eight contests over the next month. He’s a strong favorite in the caucuses in Idaho, Alaska, Hawaii, Washington and Wyoming. Barack Obama won an average of 72 percent of the vote in these contests in 2008, and so far Mr. Sanders is running an average of four points behind Mr. Obama’s showing in caucus states. Mr. Sanders is also a strong favorite in the Utah primary.

Combined, these six states hold 216 delegates. Mr. Sanders might hope to win them by a 2-to-1 margin — perhaps narrowing Mrs. Clinton’s lead by 65 to 70 delegates.

In the middle of all of that will be two states that could be slightly more competitive: Wisconsin and Arizona.

CONTINUED...

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/17/upshot/heres-how-bernie-sanders-could-win-the-nomination.html?ribbon-ad-idx=5&rref=upshot


Nate Cohn ends the piece "more realistically," that the odds are against Bernie, based on where he has and hasn't polled well. Who knows?

All I know is I have not given up. Most of those I know have not given up. And until the convention in Philadelphia happens, my horse is Bernie Sanders.
45 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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Here’s How Bernie Sanders Could Win the Nomination (Original Post) Octafish Mar 2016 OP
And then he comes to NY where Hillary wins by a margin of 65-70 delegates Renew Deal Mar 2016 #1
She can win Arizona and walk away adding to her delegate lead against Sanders' caucuses. Trust Buster Mar 2016 #2
She's welcome to walk away... k8conant Mar 2016 #19
she may not even have a choice. nt grasswire Mar 2016 #30
Paying off pledged delegates is always an option KingFlorez Mar 2016 #3
Hanging that hat on "whiter states". nt LexVegas Mar 2016 #4
More progressive states, not whiter 21st Century Poet Mar 2016 #5
Is he going to win New York? nt LexVegas Mar 2016 #6
We'll have to wait and see. 21st Century Poet Mar 2016 #8
Will he win California? nt LexVegas Mar 2016 #9
He might. 21st Century Poet Mar 2016 #11
Will Bernie win Washington? nt LexVegas Mar 2016 #13
I'll make it easy for you so that you don't have to keep asking. 21st Century Poet Mar 2016 #16
Thats what I thought. Like I said, "whiter states". nt LexVegas Mar 2016 #17
Or more progressive ones. 21st Century Poet Mar 2016 #18
heheh. nt grasswire Mar 2016 #32
Progressive States=Kansas, Nebraska, Idaho, Utah... brooklynite Mar 2016 #35
who's playing the race card now? Viva_La_Revolution Mar 2016 #45
May I take issue with New York being Clinton's "home state." pangaia Mar 2016 #31
Utah, Idaho, Wyoming, Alaska comradebillyboy Mar 2016 #10
The Democrats there are generally more progressive nt k8conant Mar 2016 #20
Ha griffi94 Mar 2016 #29
Massachusetts and Ohio are really just backwards as fuck. NuclearDem Mar 2016 #15
"more progressive" - like Wyoming, Idaho, SD, ND, Utah, Alaska? DrDan Mar 2016 #23
We all know the odds now. Sanders seems to have enough comradebillyboy Mar 2016 #7
It's too soon for liberal forums like Kos and DU to be muting the conversation. Cheese Sandwich Mar 2016 #12
yep Hiraeth Mar 2016 #24
+1000 nt grasswire Mar 2016 #33
Barring an immediate indictment of Hillary NobodyHere Mar 2016 #14
I attended a county convention today in MN. 60 % Bernie jwirr Mar 2016 #21
+++++ marions ghost Mar 2016 #22
#stillsanders Hiraeth Mar 2016 #25
#StillSanders bkkyosemite Mar 2016 #27
And Still Donating here. Duppers Mar 2016 #42
Yes, me also. jwirr Mar 2016 #44
Sanders has to carry every state by that margin going forward, to have a shot Tarc Mar 2016 #26
Not going to happen .........now........ bkkyosemite Mar 2016 #28
That's not correct. Cheese Sandwich Mar 2016 #36
Please post a link to your simulation. Garrett78 Mar 2016 #37
I cant remember the site. Somebody posted a link to delegate calculator. Cheese Sandwich Mar 2016 #38
Here you go: Garrett78 Mar 2016 #39
I saw that one too. I'm not going to click it right now. Cheese Sandwich Mar 2016 #40
I was really hoping to *finally* see one from someone who thinks Sanders can still win. Garrett78 Mar 2016 #41
Perhaps you need a refresher course, then Tarc Mar 2016 #43
you forgot "hell freezing over" dlwickham Mar 2016 #34
 

Trust Buster

(7,299 posts)
2. She can win Arizona and walk away adding to her delegate lead against Sanders' caucuses.
Sat Mar 19, 2016, 05:23 PM
Mar 2016

You've already seen a couple of these scenarios.

KingFlorez

(12,689 posts)
3. Paying off pledged delegates is always an option
Sat Mar 19, 2016, 05:26 PM
Mar 2016

After all, he's raised a ton of money and it's any means necessary when it comes to defeating Wall Street. REVOLUTION!!!!!!!

21st Century Poet

(254 posts)
8. We'll have to wait and see.
Sat Mar 19, 2016, 05:37 PM
Mar 2016

New York is Mrs Clinton's home state. Not sure she will do as well as Mr Sanders did in his home state. She has an advantage but some politicians do lose their home state.

21st Century Poet

(254 posts)
16. I'll make it easy for you so that you don't have to keep asking.
Sat Mar 19, 2016, 05:50 PM
Mar 2016

There is a possibility (a small one but it is technically a possibility) that Mr Sanders will win each and every state that will vote from today onwards and then go on to win the presidency. It depends on who the people vote for. I trust that you understand this simple concept.

21st Century Poet

(254 posts)
18. Or more progressive ones.
Sat Mar 19, 2016, 06:03 PM
Mar 2016

Why is race more important than political ideas for you? Are you saying that Mrs Clinton won the states she did due to being certain race(s)' choice and not because of her political ideas? You do realise that you are painting yourself into a corner, right?

pangaia

(24,324 posts)
31. May I take issue with New York being Clinton's "home state."
Sat Mar 19, 2016, 09:33 PM
Mar 2016

My state certainly is NOT her home state. She came here because ---visibility, she could easily win a Senate seat - no competition, and to continue to set the stage for a presidential run. Her entire life, as far as I can see, has been about being president, president, president.....

Clinton is a carpetbagger.

As far as I am concerned, she can go back to from whence she came.



And as a preemptive strike against whomever.. NO Bernie Sanders is NOT a carpetbagger.

 

NuclearDem

(16,184 posts)
15. Massachusetts and Ohio are really just backwards as fuck.
Sat Mar 19, 2016, 05:46 PM
Mar 2016

Not like the liberal bastion of Oklahoma.


Or perhaps we can realize that there are good progressives and liberals fighting for progressive and liberal ideas even in states under deep Republican control, and they deserve to have just as much of a voice as traditional liberal enclaves.

comradebillyboy

(10,139 posts)
7. We all know the odds now. Sanders seems to have enough
Sat Mar 19, 2016, 05:37 PM
Mar 2016

money to keep going. I presume he will contest all remaining primaries and caucuses. I don't see any possibility of him getting enough delegates to win. It will keep a bit of media attention on the Democrats til the convention.

 

Cheese Sandwich

(9,086 posts)
12. It's too soon for liberal forums like Kos and DU to be muting the conversation.
Sat Mar 19, 2016, 05:43 PM
Mar 2016

They frame it as acknowledging the result, but really they are trying to shape the result and discourage dissent.

jwirr

(39,215 posts)
21. I attended a county convention today in MN. 60 % Bernie
Sat Mar 19, 2016, 06:21 PM
Mar 2016

and 40% Hillary. I was one of the Bernie delegates from the caucus and will be a alternate delegate at the next level.

One of the main things we stressed is that we do not want any deals made. We want our 60% MN delegates to continue intact until the Convention in Philly. We are not giving up. We see no reason to compromise during the Primary.



Tarc

(10,476 posts)
26. Sanders has to carry every state by that margin going forward, to have a shot
Sat Mar 19, 2016, 09:20 PM
Mar 2016

I think it's time for some reality to set in here.

 

Cheese Sandwich

(9,086 posts)
36. That's not correct.
Sat Mar 19, 2016, 09:47 PM
Mar 2016

He just has to win 58% of the delegates between now and the end of June.

It's that he has to win every state. I ran a simulation using the tools some people posted on DU, where I had him losing New York by a small margin but still able to hit 2026 delegates.

Garrett78

(10,721 posts)
37. Please post a link to your simulation.
Sun Mar 20, 2016, 12:02 AM
Mar 2016

I keep asking for people who think Sanders can still win to post such a simulation. But not a single person has, as far as I can tell.

 

Cheese Sandwich

(9,086 posts)
38. I cant remember the site. Somebody posted a link to delegate calculator.
Sun Mar 20, 2016, 12:06 AM
Mar 2016

Anyways you need it to easily see it's false that he must win "every state". He's obviously going to lose in some of them. Also Bobby Kennedy was assassinated in June. Hillary noted that when explaining why she wouldn't concede when she was running against Obama in 2008. Meaning that life is unpredictable. Anything can happen.

 

Cheese Sandwich

(9,086 posts)
40. I saw that one too. I'm not going to click it right now.
Sun Mar 20, 2016, 12:17 AM
Mar 2016

That's not the one I used. But it was similar.

But now that you have it you can go ahead and run your own simulations and see for yourself. Have fun!

Garrett78

(10,721 posts)
41. I was really hoping to *finally* see one from someone who thinks Sanders can still win.
Sun Mar 20, 2016, 12:28 AM
Mar 2016

Every time I ask for one, I get responses like "anything can happen."

Tarc

(10,476 posts)
43. Perhaps you need a refresher course, then
Sun Mar 20, 2016, 10:34 AM
Mar 2016

60%-40% in all of the remaining states will put Sanders around 90 delegates ahead of Clinton. We all know that will not happen; as soon as you put some realistic numbers in there...Kentucky 35%, Washington DC 30%, Arizona 45%, California and NY 45% each (and that's being extraordinarily generous), then he sinks way back down.

It's time for Camp Sanders to start being realistic here.

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