2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumNPR, today: Yes, Clinton's Gotten The Most Votes **OF ALL**
Yes, Clinton's Gotten The Most Votes, But GOP Has More Overall
March 19, 2016 3:02 PM ET
Hillary Clinton claimed at a recent debate that she'd gotten the most votes in this 2016 presidential election.
That's true, actually.
Yes, she's gotten more votes than Donald Trump.
2016 Primaries, by candidate:
Clinton - 8,668,136
Trump - 7,548,429
Sanders - 6,131,951
Cruz 5,484,494
Rubio 3,394,134
Kasich 2,725,327
Carson 677,307
Bush 249,894
O'Malley 94,692
http://www.npr.org/2016/03/19/471102628/yes-clintons-gotten-the-most-votes-but-gop-has-more-overall
PowerToThePeople
(9,610 posts)ucrdem
(15,512 posts)Another reason is that uniting around opposition to Trump will greatly help the house and senate races and the senate is poised to flip.
morningfog
(18,115 posts)And not Bernie.
ucrdem
(15,512 posts)and the rest of the VRWC gang.
BainsBane
(53,003 posts)morningfog
(18,115 posts)BainsBane
(53,003 posts)In the link in the post you responded to. It shows quite clearly he does, and several of his staffers just left to work for one in Alaska. Read it.
http://time.com/4261350/bernie-sanders-super-pac-alaska-millenials/
The Anchorage-based Americas Youth PAC, made up almost entirely of former Bernie 2016 campaign staffers, is the latest unconventional outside group to throw its support behind the Vermont senator. Its leaders broke off from the Sanders campaign last week and have holed up in an old mall on the outskirts of town, just steps away from the official campaigns office in the same building.
. . .
The group also exists in murky legal territory, as federal election law requires a cooling-off period that prevents a candidates staff from leaving the campaign and doing certain kinds of work for a supporting super PAC within 120 days. Americas Youth PAC disputes it is doing anything illegal, but several independent campaign finance experts said it was pressing the boundaries of election law.
The so-called cooling off period is intended to prevent coordination with the campaign. Technically, the law prohibits former campaign staff from assisting on paid public communications that rely on material knowledge from the campaign. The sticking points, campaign finance experts say, are in the meaning of public communications and what knowledge the new super PAC used from the campaign. Canvassing is not traditionally defined as public communications in the way that television advertisements are
More at the link.
morningfog
(18,115 posts)BainsBane
(53,003 posts)The purpose for prohibitions of staff moving directly from a campaign to a superpac so quickly is that it constitutes coordination.
Coordination is in fact illegal under federal law.
That super pac was chartered a year ago. He has spent this entire campaign announcing he doesn't "have" a superpac, when clearly he does. There is also another superpac run by a former staffer of his that I have posted about before. http://www.sevendaysvt.com/vermont/sanders-shifting-stance-on-super-pacs/Content?oid=2759783
morningfog
(18,115 posts)There are no PACS of Bernie's. But there are Hillary coordinating PACs. Yes it is legal, but she claims a loophole to violate the law. I agree it is flagrant and wrong.
PowerToThePeople
(9,610 posts)That ain't happening anytime soon. I think the FBI may come first.
DesertRat
(27,995 posts)an enemy of my enemy is not my friend when it comes to HRC. She is of the exact same cloth as the gop. I am not in one bit interested in uniting. I'd rather suffer huge losses and terrible outcomes from them then vote for huge losses and terrible outcomes from her. This is your dilemma you created with the third way nonsense. The DNC has left the liberals, and if Hillary wins the nomination, this liberal will vote for every liberal candidate and leave president blank. It's not us, it's the third way. Enjoy your lust for victory at the cost of harming yourself. Negative ads will last until November, but do not be confused, her record is the most troubling of negative ads. When telling the truth about someone becomes equally as harmful as lying you have a problem. The truth being Hillary and the DNC left us long ago. We have been getting by without you, you certainly will get by and enjoy the Big business democratic party who kicks labor and other working people in the mouth. You won't get my help, you won't get my money, you won't get my support, you will get me leaving the presidential portion of the ballot blank if Hillary is the nominee. Enjoy your Frankenstein's monster.
JaneyVee
(19,877 posts)Hillary is blowing them out.
Agschmid
(28,749 posts)pantsonfire
(1,306 posts)...that means though that Trump would probably be waaay ahead *barf*
artislife
(9,497 posts)But h supporters don't like this math.
ibegurpard
(16,685 posts)Better be on their knees praying nightly that all of those R votes don't consolidate behind a single candidate and that the D vote actually turns out in the General. (And that Trump is not the nominee because despite their willful blindness he IS exhibiting crossover appeal).
Donald Ian Rankin
(13,598 posts)Primary turnout correlates quite well with how competitive the primary is, but very poorly with results in the general election.
Here's a good article with the relevant data.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/primary-turnout-means-nothing-for-the-general-election/
ucrdem
(15,512 posts)Even so the point cannot be ignored that Clinton is blowing away the competition.
shadowandblossom
(718 posts)We posted the same article. I guess I should have looked before I replied...
ibegurpard
(16,685 posts)Pray for a brokered Republican convention that denies the nomination to Trump.
Donald Ian Rankin
(13,598 posts)ucrdem
(15,512 posts)LexVegas
(6,005 posts)She is running against a core coalition of young white males.
ucrdem
(15,512 posts)for they shall stay home and make waffles
p.s. no, it's not close, and by any metric Hillary sewed it up on Tuesday.
Logical
(22,457 posts)shadowandblossom
(718 posts)They say:
"But Democrats shouldnt worry. Republicans shouldnt celebrate. As others have pointed out, voter turnout is an indication of the competitiveness of a primary contest, not of what will happen in the general election. The GOP presidential primary is more competitive than the Democratic race.
Indeed, history suggests that there is no relationship between primary turnout and the general election outcome. You can see this on the most basic level by looking at raw turnout in years in which both parties had competitive primaries. There have been six of those years in the modern era: 1976, 1980, 1988, 1992, 2000 and 2008."
This is not to say we should be complacent, I mean, look at what the stakes are... but I was still glad to see the article.
ucrdem
(15,512 posts)is that she'll do even better in the GE.
shadowandblossom
(718 posts)&feature=youtu.be
ucrdem
(15,512 posts)If that dopey Trump ad is any indication November is going to be a cakewalk. But I'm pretty sure his new friends with the Florida focus groups will step in and make it the usual full-spectrum psy-war.
shadowandblossom
(718 posts)Yeah... her pacs response ad did crack me up though... I hope it'll be a cakewalk, but I don't really think it'll be a cakewalk. Looking at what everybody did to her all through primaries, and people do buy into this stuff. Even when our opponent is more or less the antichrist... and the stakes are high. I worry. Sometimes my stomache just sinks at night thinking about what might happen. My friend bought a passport honestly.
ucrdem
(15,512 posts)The Best Way to Vilify Hillary Clinton? G.O.P. Spends Heavily to Test It
NYT - JULY 11, 2015
The ad then cut to Mrs. Clinton describing being dead broke when she and her husband left the White House, before a narrator intoned that Mrs. Clinton makes more money in a single speech, about $300,000, than an average family earns in five years.
The message hit a nerve. Shes out of touch, said one of the women, who works as a laundry attendant.In Orlando, the dead broke ad emerged as the most effective spot, partly because it captured the gulf between Mrs. Clintons life and those of the less affluent people gathered.
Her reality is just so different than mine, murmured another, as operatives from American Crossroads, a Republican super PAC, watched closely from behind a one-way mirror.
In rooms like this one around the country, an expensive and sophisticated effort is underway to test and refine the most potent lines of attack against Mrs. Clinton, and, ultimately, to persuade Americans that she does not deserve their votes. While the general election is 16 months away, Republican groups are eager to begin building a powerful case against the woman they believe will be the Democratic nominee, and to infuse the public consciousness with those messages.
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/12/us/the-best-way-to-vilify-clinton-gop-spends-heavily-to-test-it.html?_r=0
shadowandblossom
(718 posts)Ack.... thank you for sharing... I'm sure other gaffes will come back to haunt us too... but she is the best person for the job and the best shot we have.
shadowandblossom
(718 posts)He's (maybe) a billionaire and was born into money. She worked her way up from the middle class... This is stupid...
artislife
(9,497 posts)ucrdem
(15,512 posts)But Hill's on first.
artislife
(9,497 posts)From the right, the left and the independents.
Only dems, and not all of them either.
ucrdem
(15,512 posts)If she gets what Obama got twice, and it looks like she's on track for that, she wins, plus what Bill got twice, she wins comfortably.
artislife
(9,497 posts)shadowandblossom
(718 posts)Choosing your opponent is a classic technique for getting an easy fight in politics. This is not something new and the fact he does so well in open primaries ought to make you a little more suspicious.
shadowandblossom
(718 posts)I think the people there just really love him, even the Republicans.
shadowandblossom
(718 posts)Since I am not an expert and they have been giving me accurate information all primary season, unlike the mainstream media. I'm comfortable with them since all indicators so far have shown fivethirtyeight political analysts to put out good quality information. I'm very careful when it comes to sources (not perfect) and a skeptical person.
Fawke Em
(11,366 posts)Bernie was supposed to do nothing.
Trump shouldn't be here.
Meh.
shadowandblossom
(718 posts)Fawke Em
(11,366 posts)shadowandblossom
(718 posts)and general turnout, which debunks the argument that we should expect it based on that data. That's not saying they won't have better turnout, just that primary numbers don't indicate that. Since he didn't make predictions if I remember correctly, it seems like you are just disputing facts. If that's the case which facts do you dispute?
Show there is a historical correlation and I'll listen to you. Otherwise I really can't take what you are saying seriously.
Ken Burch
(50,254 posts)Even if she gets nominated, it will end up being close to a dead heat in the popular vote column.
ucrdem
(15,512 posts)She's running the table.
Ken Burch
(50,254 posts)Not sure why you're so enthusiastic for someone who's that conservative on some many big issues.
It's not like there can ever be a military intervention anywhere today that could actually have feminist results. The only war that actually ever did liberate women was World War II, and that was accidental and temporary. No American war has had any positive results for any women anywhere since then.
artislife
(9,497 posts)Everything they cheer her on is a conservative stance.
Blech.
shadowandblossom
(718 posts)Here's one now...
artislife
(9,497 posts)Big hearts come out of your eyes when she says no to single payer. You leap over babbling brooks when she talks about the good Monsanto does to farming. You happily wave good bye to Honduran children when they are sent back with a message pinned to their shirts.
I have watched the cheers to her stances by this site, the further right she goes, the happier and more determined you all get.
Carlo Marx
(98 posts)And Obama received extraordinary amounts of media coverage whereas Sanders is either ignored or sand blasted with hit jobs.
shadowandblossom
(718 posts)One reason for the difference is that they appealed to different groups then, she got more of the people who like Bernard Sanders now in that race... Now her coalition looks more like Obama's did then. Anyway, what your saying doesn't seem like it has any meaning to me. That idea kind of cherry picks facts to make a picture that is desirable to you and ignores the broader picture of whats going on.
EndElectoral
(4,213 posts)That unfortunately is the Achilles Heel in the optimism.
Once all those votes parsed between Trump, Rubio, Kasich and Cruz are all representing one GOP candidate, the Democratic candidate is going to be facing a huge uphill slog as the numbers fall short.
Even in the Florida Primary, 50K voters LESS voted for the Demcoratic candidate and 3 million MORE for GOP candidates than they did in 2012. That swing is significant.
Fawke Em
(11,366 posts)Add her's plus Bernie's (minus 37 percent) and then add Trump, Cruz, Rubio, et al, minus 12 percent.
She loses, hon.
shadowandblossom
(718 posts)Not sure why that would make you feel better about Sanders, since by your reasoning their odds would be identical in the general... Seems more like the sort of thing a Republican would gloat over. But anyway here's a link with a debunk to your post.
Fawke Em
(11,366 posts)But, I'm married to an insurance underwriter, so deal with it.
shadowandblossom
(718 posts).
vintx
(1,748 posts)We'll see how that works out for ya.
ucrdem
(15,512 posts)It worked for Bill too, a little differently, but then again I wonder if maybe Ross Perot didn't also get an encouraging phone call from the governor.
Fawke Em
(11,366 posts)She's gonna lose because, well, no one but her ardent fans like her.
shadowandblossom
(718 posts)Okay then.
grossproffit
(5,591 posts)It's bizarro world here.
Fawke Em
(11,366 posts)My husband, who's tried to talk me into doing the hold the nose thing, even says so.
That's why you guys are so ardent about us doing so.
grossproffit
(5,591 posts)I'm still working on him.
shadowandblossom
(718 posts)That settles it.
Your life is your life. As for me, I'll hold my nose and vote for him if I have to.
BainsBane
(53,003 posts)As her lead of 2.5 million votes shows clearly.
Cha
(295,929 posts)How dare you!?
ucrdem
(15,512 posts)heya Cha! nice smackdown on seabeyond's post
Bassomar
(58 posts)TOo bad the outcome for the GOP is greater, there is not excitement on the Dem. 2016 will be Gore 2.0.
workinclasszero
(28,270 posts)The primaries are for all intents and purposes done.
ibegurpard
(16,685 posts)And a lot of Democratic voters to motivate.
hellofromreddit
(1,182 posts)Average turnout: 27.3
Total eligible voters: 119,008,730
Maybe everyone should cool it with the smarmy negative campaigning?
ucrdem
(15,512 posts)as the stakes are lower and caucuses at least are more involved than regular elections. That stands to reason but the point has also been made statistically in a recent FiveThirtyEight article posted here:
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/primary-turnout-means-nothing-for-the-general-election/
wildeyed
(11,240 posts)She lost the all-important online polls and her supporters lack intensity