The point I was trying to make is Pennsylvania will be the best indicator of Trump possibly having a shot at winning.

Either Democrat would be the favorite in Pennsylvania, but not to the point of "Absolutely no way" we could lose.

People think of Pennsylvania as an urban, industrial, northeastern state, but it's not like its northeastern neighbors. Consider Obama's margins over Romney:
New York, 28%
New Jersey, 18%
Delaware, 19%
Maryland, 26%
Pennsylvania, 5%

Both Romney and Trump are rich, but Trump is much better positioned to appeal to the white working-class voters who feel (with considerable justice) that the system is rigged against them. Trump, despite his personal wealth, is connecting with that bloc the way the patrician Romney never could. He doesn't need to flip many votes to take Pennsylvania.

Of course, what counts is the net change from 2012. Trump could get 4% of the electorate to switch from Obama to him, yet still lose the state because of women and mainstream Republicans who switch from Romney to this year's Democratic nominee. Then there are the turnout issues. Still, it's too early to consider Pennsylvania to be locked up. I expect that either Clinton or Sanders will devote at least some resources to that state.

But to make Herr Trump spend time and resources in states that would be safely GOP because that means less resources and time he can spend elsewhere.

"Politics is like war by other means."

"I'm hearing that applications for citizen is up 14% in the last few months, and it's Latinos applying specifically to vote against Trump. "

Hillary is going to win this thing with Latinos and African Americans leading the way!

Them fast enough. I don't think Trump has a chance in AZ. Plus, the Indian population is not going to vote for him.

Love your avatar... I have used that one a few times on some posts in the past.

Do you think McCain might refuse to endorse Trump?

Can he hold his Senate seat?

Like the left, the right is really feed up with establishment too. They just want someone different. And trump doesn't offer the evangelical bullshit that so many of them get turned off by with Cruz.

I doubt mccain will endorse trump---unless the GOP gets behind trump which I don't see happening. As for his seat, I have heard that it is in play.

Edit: here is a link showing that McCain has some dismal numbers for an incumbent. This is from 2015, though. What I saw was pretty recent showing favorability numbers of mccain v kirkpatrick which was even worse for McCain. I have to see if I can find it again.

http://m.dailykos.com/story/2015/05/05/1382640/-A-new-poll-finds-John-McCain-in-real-trouble?detail=hide

I was just showing how we can win even without FL and OH.

I think they are also wrong about the southern belt. I think the AA vote will carry Hillary.

This election could be awesome!

Not enough to elect him but they are out there...Dangerous to discount em...

The Latinos, Asians, and AA are fired up to go vote AGAINST him. Especially the Latinos. But I think all minorities are paying closer attention this year. Asians remember the Japanese internment camps and when Trump came out and said "round up....mexicans" I guarantee you they heard "round up.....asians". It has not been forgotten.

I think the media spends far too much time showing trump and his ilk because it is a ratings bonanza. But the reality is that there is a large, silent movement that is building steadfastly against him too. For examine, (& this is just 1 community) the vietnamese community has often in the past gone conservative in their vote. But in the last decade, it is trending more left. This election year, it is an all out lashing of trump. They don't talk about it, but they really hate him. His vulgarity and racism is a beacon to arms or in this case, vote. But you don't hear about this kind of stuff.

And we haven't touched on muslims. I am sure the south asian community and middle eastern communities will be getting out the vote in full force. I have heard some of that talk too.

I think 538 is right. Voter turnout for the GE is a different ballgame.

If you want to post crap like this and continue to insult Bernie supporters who have NOT voted yet, you're certainly on your way to losing the election.

Bernie can surprise everyone, and win all 27 states. He certainly can score more than enough delegates to secure the nomination without the need for superdelegates.

Welcome to DU!

I don't doubt it. It's horrific enough. Look at that, 275 - fucking scary. Insanity.

She blows Trump away in the state polls so far.

Thanks.

1. Who gets the nomination.
2. And what do the Trump supporters do -- happily join those that took the nomination away from the guy who got the greatest level of support during the primaries?

How do either of those scenarios play out well for the repubs?

Just wondering what the theory was. You may very well be right... for sure the GOP are going to do everything they can to get rid of him. It just looks like they are running out of options.

nominee