2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumLooking Back before There's a Back to Look at.
I'm getting a head start here on the discussion that will begin following this year's Democratic Nominating Convention. Premature? Well, maybe, but not likely. Bernie Sanders has done surprisingly well in this primary season. He's done better than I would ever have predicted. Almost certainly, it's not going to be good enough to win the Democratic nomination, but he's done very well, indeed.
So, once the convention is over, if he hasn't done well enough to get the nomination, where do we go from there? Bernie won't run again in 2020, I'm sure. If Hillary Clinton becomes President, it's likely that she will seek a second term, though. So, what will disappointed supporters of the Sanders "political revolution" do? That's an excellent question. They could do one of two things, I think:
1. Bail out of the Democratic Party altogether. This only applies to those who considered themselves part of it in the first place, of course, but it wouldn't be the best decision, I believe. If Clinton wins in November, the Party will actually gain in strength, not lose. Abandoning it probably won't lead to changing it.
2. Become the core of the Democratic Party. This is almost certainly the better course. There will be an outstanding opportunity for people gain access to leadership positions in the Democratic Party in 2018. During mid-term election years, activity in party functions slumps heavily. By being there and being active at all levels, there will be many opportunities in those years to get elected to party leadership positions.
I've seen the process. People who are ready to leave leadership positions are most likely to do so in mid-term years. Many who worked hard on the 2016 election process will feel that they've done their best work and will be ready to step down from the hard work and challenges. This is the time for the next generation of Democrats to step up and take their places as leaders. Often, positions at district levels go begging at the mid-term conventions. Typically, if you're willing, you're in during those years.
If Bernie doesn't prevail, as seems likely to me, build on his amazing success and push by working to become the leadership of the party by 2020. It can be done. Get on the board of your local district organization in 2018. Bust your butt working to elect the most progressive legislators possible in 2018 and 2020. In 2022, run for leadership positions at higher levels of your state party organization. Bring your friends along.
Right now, in 2016, turnout at party organization conventions and other meetings is at it's absolute peak. In 2018, far fewer people will be involved at every level. You and your friends will have an outstanding opportunity that year, in 2020, and in 2022, to get or rise in leadership positions. Then, in 2024, you'll be the ones in charge of your state's Democratic Party. That's how the current leaders got into their positions. Ask them. They'll tell you exactly that.
Don't be tempted to follow option #1. It's guaranteed to fail. Go for option #2. That's my advice as an old geezer who has been involved in Democratic Party politics for over 50 years. I'm 70 years old now, and ready to step out of active participation. I've scaled back already and haven't interested in party leadership position advancement for some time. I'm far from alone in that stage.
Over an eight year period, a dedicated group can actually become most of the leadership in most states. It can happen. It's hard work but, if it's worth anything, it's worth that effort.
Go Get 'Em!
Trust Buster
(7,299 posts)Progressives must rise throughout Democratic seats in states and in Congress. Putting the cart in front of the horse by having a 74 year old progressive leader first with progressive politicians following after will not work IMO. The progressive argument must first be won at the state level.
MineralMan
(146,286 posts)there will be many opportunities to elect progressives to state and federal legislatures. In many ways, that's even more important than presidential elections.
The Democratic Party has always been a bottom up organization. It's current leadership got there by following exactly the pattern I'm recommending. Politics is a long-term thing, not an election-by-election thing.
Trust Buster
(7,299 posts)rogerashton
(3,920 posts)Remember, too, that Hillary will need the left for her re-election. Even if she wins by a huge margin -- and given the way the Pubs are messing themselves up, she might -- they are not going to hand her a second term. Get out in front so she knows that, in 2020, we are the ones she has to bring out.
SoLeftIAmRight
(4,883 posts)yesterday young bernie supporters were directing the action - the old ladies were happy to see it
young bernie supporters elected to several positions
and best of all - not as young bernie supporters committing to run for offices the have unopposed republicans in office for years - and strong candidates for DA and regent
MineralMan
(146,286 posts)work on change. The process works a little slowly, but it works very surely.
Rebkeh
(2,450 posts)I don't think the current party would get stronger, I think it would get weaker. So I'm definitely on board with becoming the core of the party regardless.
I'm also open to a new party altogether if that's how it plays out, it's hard to guage the best approach from the present moment. I will say, however, reinventing wheels is usually unnecessary.
And the next generation of millenials is going expand the truly progressive population by the next election too. Fundamental change is going to happen, it's just a matter of time. The future looks bright.
MineralMan
(146,286 posts)with the Gen-Xers, the process will go more quickly, I think. Building a majority is the key. Boomers like me are rapidly aging out of being as active as we once were, but most of the top leadership is still made up of Boomers. A coalition of younger Democrats could easily make up a game-changing majority and hurry things along somewhat.
I'm a Gen Xer myself, I am so inspired by the young folks these days.
MineralMan
(146,286 posts)I'll be watching as the Party becomes a new thing.
One more thing: Listen to the old guard as they depart. They've learned many useful things and will share those with you.
Rebkeh
(2,450 posts)We will do our best.
MineralMan
(146,286 posts)Thank you!
jeff47
(26,549 posts)The party did an excellent job driving the liberal half of my generation away from politics. You won't be able to get a strong coalition because 1) We've given up, and 2) our needs are too diverse. There isn't something like student debt that is common among all of GenX anymore from which you can easily build a coalition.
The chance to get GenX involved was thrown away in the 1990s.
DisgustipatedinCA
(12,530 posts)I'm still advocating for Sanders, but his chances are adittedly very slim. And even though I like your post, I am considering going Independent after the General. If I do, it will be so that I can caucus with my will-have-been-former-party on liberal issues, and not so much in the areas where I disagree with today's Democratic leadership. I think there may be something to the notion that a larger pool of independents will cause the parties to look to their better angels (or in the case of the GOP, to at least rent some angels for the occasion). I haven't reached a conclusion, just stuff I'm mulling over. I hope you enjoy your Sunday.
MineralMan
(146,286 posts)My suggestions are just one path that can be taken. Consider, though, the power of a well-organized political party. Independents are, by definition, independent. Often, it's very difficult to build a powerful organization of independents. For the presidential election, particularly, a strong national organization is almost essential.
DisgustipatedinCA
(12,530 posts)I think I'd be ready to dive right back in (from whatever hypothetical still-inside or newly-outside perspective), if I could see some signs that the Democratic Party leadership was starting to get it. It's about corruption, in brief, and I'd like to see a sign that they'll begin to take some meaningful steps address this. I know--I need to be the change I want to make and work at the local level. I'm just thinking about a couple of different ways to approach that.
MineralMan
(146,286 posts)is boring and often seems to not be worthwhile. It can take quite some time to get anything accomplished. I'll tell you a story about California in the very early 1970s, though:
I had worked myself up to a candidate selection committee position in my county organization at the time, by stuffing envelopes, setting up chairs and doing all sorts of other grunt work cheerfully and willingly. We were facing an election for the county's District Attorney, along with a couple of county supervisors. We talked with a number of potential candidates, since the county organization endorsed candidates at that level. One of them stood out in my mind.
He had said something in passing at our interview session about it being stupid to prosecute people for simple possession of marijuana. I heard that. I asked him privately about it after the official meeting. He felt pretty strongly about it.
So, I pushed for his endorsement with the committee and then supported him at our county convention. I never even mentioned that position he had on that issue. He had many other good qualities and was well-qualified, and got our endorsement. He also got elected to the office. I campaigned for him, too.
In his first month in office, he announced that the district attorney's office would no longer prosecute simple possession cases where less than an ounce of marijuana was involved. The local policed department and sheriff's department responded to that by simply not arresting people any longer for simple possession. Thus ended the risk of having a little stuff to smoke. Our county was the first in California to decriminalize simple possession on a de facto basis. Other counties followed suit during the 70s.
He was a good DA in many other ways, and I helped get him into that position. Involvement has to do with government at all levels, and change can begin at even the lowest levels of government. It's all less about who gets elected as President than who gets elected to all of the other offices that affect people's lives.
whatchamacallit
(15,558 posts)While no one would argue with the general notion that direct participation in a process is the most effective way of influencing it, the logistics of your advice are confusing. There are likely to be what... dozens of leadership positions available? There are millions of people who are fed up with establishment politics for various reasons. Who are you addressing in these posts? Anyone? Everyone? Physics prohibits the latter of course.
MineralMan
(146,286 posts)You don't understand how many parts the Democratic Organization has. There are city organizations, county organizations, state legislative organizations, congressional district organizations and state organizations within the Democratic Party in every state. Each of those has at least a dozen leadership positions. Even at the precinct level, there is an organization. In mine, there are three positions, a chair and two vice-chairs. We have over 4000 precincts in Minnesota alone.
You underestimate the number of opportunities. And here's a secret: The chair of the Minnesota State DFL Party started out as a precinct chair in his own city. Leadership is earned, starting at the lowest level. There's not much that a precinct chair is required to do, but much that person can do if he or she wants to. Those who do stuff build a reputation for that activity.
Next month, I'll be a delegate at the state Senate district convention, which will have about 500 people in attendance as delegates. That organization has a board of directors with seven members. It has a chairperson and a vice-chair. It has several other leadership slots. This year, probably half a dozen of those positions will be open for nominations due to a vacancy. Who will be elected to those positions? Some precinct chair who wants to be the next district secretary or board member. There are also committees of several kinds. Virtually anyone who wants to be on those can be. They also feed the rest of the leadership positions. In Minnesota, we have, I believe, 68 such state Senate District organizations, all with the same number of leadership positions.
Then, we have 8 congressional district organizations, one for each of our 8 districts. The leadership folks in those were all first in leadership positions in the state senate district or country organizations. They earned those positions by working hard in their previous positions and becoming known.
It's like that all the way up to the state organization. Here's the thing: someone could advance, within 8 year to at least a committee position in the state organization. All it would take is some serious energy put into the lower level organizations. Does 8 years sound like a long time? It's not.
Becoming part of it is as simple as going to your state's Democratic Party website and checking the schedule of meetings in your local area. Show up. Ask questions. Introduce yourself to people. Ask how you can help. Before you know it, you'll be on some committee and part of party leadership. Then, it's up to you. Everyone is elected by others at that level. At every level, you can nominate yourself for any office. If you know people who know you as a hard worker, you're very likely to win any position that is vacant at the entry level for that organization.
No, it's not dozens. It's thousands. Many thousands. In every state. Navigate to your state's Democratic Party website. Find out what you can do, and do it.
whatchamacallit
(15,558 posts)We simple stop letting them take our votes for granted and reject their racket until they wake up and change it.
MineralMan
(146,286 posts)You will do as you think best, I'm sure. Being active takes a lot of time, maybe too much for some people.
jeff47
(26,549 posts)I wonder at what point you might realize there's a problem. 25% of the electorate? 20? Never?
Ever tried the approach you support? You'll find that the party does an excellent job making sure change doesn't happen. At the level that receives TV coverage you don't hear about it, but that's because there is such a strong filter at the lower party levels. The county party literally took away a leadership seat instead of risking the "wrong kind of Democrat" win it. The party also preferred to have zero Democrats on down-ticket races instead of the "wrong kind of Democrat".
The condescension is your assumption that we are idiots who did not think of this. We did. We've been working at it for years. And it's become utterly apparent that the leadership is far to corrupt to let it happen.
But don't worry. We're young. We'll just wait for the leadership to die. Meanwhile, good luck winning while calling us idiots.
MineralMan
(146,286 posts)When I first started participating in Democratic Party organizations, I was a 24-year-old hippie in California. I got rebuffed the first year I tried. My parent's generation thought I was not worth paying attention to. The next time, though, the people in that county's organization were sort of used to seeing me working when something needed to be done. So, when I nominated myself for the platform committee, I got the open seat.
I can't speak to your own experience. You're the one who had it. I can only speak for my own experience, which has stretched over 50 years. Before I started attending party meetings, etc., I was already campaigning for candidates, starting in 1960. when I was 15 years old.
I'm not being condescending. I'm suggesting a path that can be taken if someone wants to take it. People can also reject my suggestion. It's not my call.
jeff47
(26,549 posts)I'm not a 20 year old. I'm a 40 year old. I've been fighting this battle for a very long time.
The fact that you feel the need to "suggest a path" is condescension. It assumes we're all idiots who never thought of working within the party.
If you wanted to have this discussion without the massive condescension, you'd ask why we are giving up on working within the party instead of assuming it never occurred to us. Then you would have found out all the barriers your good friends in the party are throwing up, resulting in a completely different experience than yours.
But that would yield understanding instead of smug.
MineralMan
(146,286 posts)that the DFL Party here in Minnesota doesn't put up barriers against participation by anyone. We're seeing the change happening here on an accelerating basis, and I'm in full support of that. In my own districts, we have endorsed and elected strong progressives to our state legislative positions. We have an outstanding congressional representative in Betty McCollum, who I know and respect very much.
Anyone who seeks to become part of leadership in the DFL organizations of which I am part is encouraged to do so by pretty much everyone. We live in a very diverse area, and recently put the first Hmong state senator in our state senate, not because he is a Hmong immigrant, but because he is a labor activist.
Your experiences are your experiences, no doubt. You may have had barriers. My answer: bring like-minded friends with you and outvote the others. That is how it is done.
I'm not smug. I'm 70 years old and have been doing this for 50 years or so. I'm bowing out after this presidential election, because I no longer have the energy for it. Someone much younger will step in, I'm sure and I'll help that person all I can.
Cynicism is not my way. It never has been. Where there have been obstacles, I have found ways over or around them. It's never easy. It's always worth doing.
You will do as you choose. So will I.
ismnotwasm
(41,976 posts)If the current change agents become the core of the Democratic Party, they will be able to move a lot of policy.
MineralMan
(146,286 posts)I started in the 1960s, and rose to the level that was high enough to satisfy my level of willingness to participate. I was this young hippie guy at the time. People look sideways at me the first time I ran for a party office, but I was willing, so I got elected. After I worked hard at doing what was required, they never looked sideways at me again.
I never tried to go further than the congressional district leadership level. I couldn't spend the time required.
Someone will have all of those positions. Who that is depends on who's willing to earn them.
jeff47
(26,549 posts)The party has been working very, very hard for the last 30 years to exclude these same "change agents".
We're left with waiting for enough of the old guard to die that the party is left with no choice but to care. Which will only happen after a lengthy series of large losses.
Bluenorthwest
(45,319 posts)It's super easy to vote against the Republican while being starkly critical of a Party that would nominate a person who polished Ronald Reagan's AIDS reputation on TV. I'll mark the ballot but that's not support that's me confirming my right to call bullshit by it's name.
aspirant
(3,533 posts)they are over 40% and rising. The Dem party is dwindling fast so I advice the youth to invest their time wisely.
AgadorSparticus
(7,963 posts)Not as much as Bernie but I have no problems voting for her and supporting her. I think she has had to deal with an awful lot of hate directed towards her. She is very intelligent and an adept politician. That scares a lot of people. But, I think she has good intentions. Far better than anything on the right. So, yes. I will not only be voting for her in the GE, but I will work to help her get elected. I know we have said in the past that every election year is a watershed year, but never have we had the likes of Trump. I truly think this election year is pivotal. It is the first time we are seeing the GOP implode on such a grand scale and it is time to seize the day and push for progressive ideas. We can be better than what we have been. And the only way to see that come to fruition, is to be a part of it.
MineralMan
(146,286 posts)Yes, this is a year when we can truly punish the Republicans for their ugliness. I hope they never recover from it.
AgadorSparticus
(7,963 posts)The posts that keep tearing each other apart or bait people to get into arguments over who cares more. (Pssst....we ALL care). Clearly, I am not part of the purity party. We need some fresh air in here.
What I hope to see from this spectacular election year is the total fracturing of the GOP and a smaller fracturing of the democratic party. Our political system needs reform. It can't go on as it has. And i hope the powers that be on the left are paying attention. Bernie Sanders is just the beginning. They need to make some big internal changes. And with the right down for the count, I expect them to take full advantage and do what is right for America, for the middle class. Cut the bullshit and take care of us--the people. Because, make no mistake, the democratic party IS on the same path as the GOP. This is our chance. I just hope we don't miss it because we were too busy beating ourselves up.
Thank YOU
Chitown Kev
(2,197 posts)look at what happened in the state's attorney races in Cook County, Illinois and Cuyahoga County, Ohio.
That process has already begun.