Next recession coming - before or after election?

The global capitalist political economy remains in crisis.

It's more than seven months to the election.

Corporate earnings have declined in consecutive quarters since mid-2015.

From February 20:

Since corporate profits turned negative in mid-2015, Wall Street has pondered whether it's just a passing phase or a signal of something worse. History strongly suggests the latter.

Recessions have followed consecutive quarters of earnings declines 81 percent of the time, according to an analysis from JPMorgan Chase strategists, who said they combed through 115 years of records for their findings.

The news gets worse: Of the remaining 19 percent of the time, recession was only avoided through either monetary or fiscal stimulus. With the Federal Reserve holding limited easing options and a deeply dysfunctional Washington thwarting a fiscal boost, the prospects for help are not good.

The warning comes amid a stock market hovering around correction territory and a mixed economic picture. Citigroup this week warned of escalating risks for a global recession, though data Thursday on durable goods orders suggested the manufacturing sector may be shaking off a contraction phase. Fed officials in recent days have been talking down recession risks.

More
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/02/25/recession-sign-is-in-play-and-has-81-accuracy.html

(To raise the discourse level here please note the "source" of this claim is not CNBC but a BIS study of recession patterns.)

The Fed has wanted to raise interest rates for years, and turned back each time in terror. The 2007-09 crisis cannot be said to have been resolved, rather central banking has flooded the financial sectors with easy virtual cash to keep the appearance of stability in their balance sheets. This has not trickled down. The destabilizing dynamics of banking have not been addressed. The concentration of Wall St. institutions greater than ever and derivatives speculation still in the hundred-trillions.

Meanwhile, China, Europe and the energy market are among the centers where a new crash can begin and is feared.

Whatever the standard stats used by capitalist economists to purport good times say (unemployment is "down," income is "up&quot , it's more important to ask: What does it mean to the majority who do not have the perception of good economic times? They have not been seeing the benefits of the so-called growth as the increases in wealth and income have gone overwhelmingly to the top 0.1%.

The dynamics of the system are such that downturns are inevitable. It's risky to assume the PTB are in control of this over longer terms, or at any given point. This can act independently of the supposedly sound economics being practiced by the administration. As long as governments conform to the principles laid down by capitalist logic and "economics," administrations have little to do with the process, regardless of their political coloration.

Though it works both ways, it is not presidents who affect economies as much as economies who affect presidents. Who will be blamed if the inevitable downturn begins before the election? And, for that, matter, after the election? It's a stealth issue that no one here is considering and that can become the central issue suddenly and within a matter of weeks.

It's also the biggest argument for Sanders that Sanders cannot actually address (assuming he's even thinking it, which he surely is since it's the obvious drumbeat of the business press over the last couple of months). That is he cannot address it before a recession begins, because then HE would be blamed for trying to bring it about. Of course talk in this realm, which is so unpredictable over short terms, often translates into real panic!

In short, with more than seven months to go before November, don't be assuming this stuff!