2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumBernie Will Win Two States Tomorrow
Can he ride a Western roll to the nomination?
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2016/03/march-22-predictions-will-rest-win-west.html
LonePirate
(13,417 posts)Winning ID and UT by healthy margins matters little if Hillary wins AZ by 10 more points.
RandySF
(58,786 posts)KMOD
(7,906 posts)and then lose in Arizona.
Hillary will wind up with an even larger delegate lead by the time the night is over.
Beacool
(30,247 posts)Idaho: 23 delegates
Utah: 33 delegates
Alaska: 16 delegates
Hawaii: 25 delegates
Washington: 101 delegates
Wisconsin: 86 delegates
Wyoming: 14 delegates
Total: 298 delegates
Even if Sanders got every single delegate in all these states, which is impossible, he would still be behind Hillary in pledged delegates. She's currently ahead by over 300 delegates. I have no issue with Sanders staying in the race until the convention, but the math is becoming increasingly difficult for him to surpass.
CoffeeCat
(24,411 posts)The states that you listed (Idaho, Utah, Alaska, Hawaii, Washington, Wyoming) vote this Saturday, 3/26.
No one in the Bernie camp has EVER suggested that the goal was to be ahead of Clinton by 3/26.
Clearly, these states are more Bernie-friendly. Our hope is that he gains enough delegates that he whittles away a chunk of Clinton's lead. If Sanders can win most of these states (which many are agreeing is entirely possible) and win by some decent margins--then that will be a game changer. Just as winning NV was a game-changer for Clinton. Washington State has 100 delegates, and I wouldn't be surprised if Bernie won that state by a big margin (60+ percent).
The media will treat him differently. New enthusiasm and hope will be breathed into his campaign. He'll get more campaign contributions as well.
If Sanders gets all of that--he can this energy going into the next important states. Wisconsin is next to vote on April 5 and that is an open primary. Sanders should do very well in WI.
If all of those factors go his way--he can parlay a great deal of success and excitement into the next big hurdles. And there is a lot of time between "hurdles" now. That's a lot of time for Sanders to be seen as a contender with multiple recent state wins, a new media narrative and most importantly, momentum.
Then, we've got New York voting on 4/19.
This is a long game. Is it a long shot and is an uphill battle? I'd say YES. It's possible though.
Beacool
(30,247 posts)The first three I know well and have campaigned in all three. MD has her up in the polls and I doubt that he'll do that well in CA either.
CoffeeCat
(24,411 posts)that don't vote for a month.
That's a bit nutty to predict states that are a month away from voting with so many moving parts. There are many states in which Bernie was behind by 20-30 points--a month before the election--and he won. Look at Michigan. Iowa. Some NH polls had him down by ten just a week before the election and it was a blowout. The ground will shift a great deal in the next month.
I think we often forget how much changes when a candidate wins even one state. Look at Clinton and Nevada.
Bernie is poised to win several states in the next several days.
What that will translate into, going forward--is a mystery.
But it is very exciting to contemplate the possibility of it working in his favor. Which it very well could!
jillan
(39,451 posts)quiller4
(2,467 posts)Press reports out of Arizona report that percentage of seniors in the early vote tallies was nearly double that of 2008 almost 75 percent were over 55 and 60 percent were over 65. Early vote turnout is up also.
jillan
(39,451 posts)people older than I am - and I am old.
The dems do push early voting so I am glad to hear that it is up.
ecstatic
(32,688 posts)which aren't very inclusive.
Beacool
(30,247 posts)The total number of delegates for each of the caucus states is:
Idaho: 23 delegates
Utah: 33 delegates
Alaska: 16 delegates
Hawaii: 25 delegates
Washington: 101 delegates (primary state, Sanders is ahead by 1%)
Wisconsin: 86 delegates
Wyoming: 14 delegates
Total: 298 delegates
Hillary is currently ahead by 301 pledged delegates. Even if she loses each of these states, she will still get pledged delegates from them. After the aforementioned states, there is only one region that holds a caucus, the Virgin Islands (7 delegates).
Bluenorthwest
(45,319 posts)Is it like a mantra?
Beacool
(30,247 posts)hrmjustin
(71,265 posts)He needs big wins in NY, CA, PA, MD, WI, WA, and others. Not going to happen.