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CoffeeCat

(24,411 posts)
Tue Mar 22, 2016, 12:38 AM Mar 2016

Hold on to your butts! Bernie within 5 of Clinton in CBS/NYT national poll

New CBS/NYTimes poll shows Clinton at 50 percent, Bernie at 45 in a new national poll released today.

The gap is 5 points now; in February Clinton was up by 8.

The poll findings suggest an "enthusiasm gap:" while 56 percent of Democratic primary voters would enthusiastically support Sanders if he wins the nomination, just 40 percent say the same if Clinton should win.


And each side's supporters say they would support the other candidate: among Sanders' supporters, 19 percent say they would not support Clinton, while just 11 percent of Clinton's supporters would not support Sanders.


Pretty incredible, indeed. When this race began, Bernie was behind by 50 points. Bernie's message is resonating. The more that America gets to know him, the more his numbers rise. This bodes well going into our next group of Bernie-friendly states!

more info/stats at link:
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/hillary-clinton-leads-bernie-sanders-in-national-cbsnyt-poll/

63 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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Hold on to your butts! Bernie within 5 of Clinton in CBS/NYT national poll (Original Post) CoffeeCat Mar 2016 OP
The race isn't decided by a national popular vote. NuclearDem Mar 2016 #1
These numbers speak to how far he has come since we started this thing in Iowa!! CoffeeCat Mar 2016 #7
thanks, coffeecat. its an indicator. I have so much joy :D roguevalley Mar 2016 #50
And since the South already voted, that 45% for Bernie means he's doing 55% in the remaining states. reformist2 Mar 2016 #8
That's not how it works. NuclearDem Mar 2016 #13
Yes it is how it works. Please don't embarrass yourself. reformist2 Mar 2016 #16
Were voters in the South not included in the polling? blue neen Mar 2016 #22
Actually. revbones Mar 2016 #34
I kind of understand what you're trying to say... blue neen Mar 2016 #41
Unfortunately. Lizzie Poppet Mar 2016 #20
Thank you for stating that. I hate it when people state this nonsense and with such conviction. politicaljunkie41910 Mar 2016 #62
He's also much stronger in the general election jfern Mar 2016 #2
We would probably lose every state but Vermont with Bernie as our nominee. nt BreakfastClub Mar 2016 #23
LOL, CNN/ORC had him up 20 points over Trump, not the other way around jfern Mar 2016 #29
Wow Kalidurga Mar 2016 #31
So, actually, you CAN'T see anything rationally. dchill Mar 2016 #33
Indeed! NWCorona Mar 2016 #36
Yes, they do... dchill Mar 2016 #40
A joke right? If not, I feel sorry for you. How do you even sleep at night? litlbilly Mar 2016 #43
Does this poll include states that have already voted? RandySF Mar 2016 #3
Yes. Which means Bernie will probably do better than that 50/45 split indicates. reformist2 Mar 2016 #10
19% of 50% = 9.5% bahrbearian Mar 2016 #60
"The margin of error for the sample of 388 Democratic primary voters is six percentage points." AgerolanAmerican Mar 2016 #4
This is great. Let's take New York and California for Bernie!!!! highprincipleswork Mar 2016 #5
Bernie has had consistent momentum and gains since we began in nearly a year ago! CoffeeCat Mar 2016 #9
I believe that enthusiasm part for sure. Punkingal Mar 2016 #6
Do you know...is that why she hasn't been having rallies? CoffeeCat Mar 2016 #15
Personally, I don't think she likes rallies and that is why they are not her strong suit. Punkingal Mar 2016 #27
"more comfortable in other settings. " dchill Mar 2016 #35
Sweet flamingdem Mar 2016 #11
Keep demanding that the media end the Bernie Blackout and 24/ 7 Trump-o-thon! Lorien Mar 2016 #12
That's Great Lorien RobertEarl Mar 2016 #24
I'm not on Twitter. Does anyone here have a list of Twitter addresses Lorien Mar 2016 #30
Me not much RobertEarl Mar 2016 #42
to the point marions ghost Mar 2016 #56
Bernie's numbers continue to climb about 4-5% per month, as word gets out. reformist2 Mar 2016 #14
According to that poll, since Dec--Clinton as lost 2 points; Bernie has gained 13. Wow! CoffeeCat Mar 2016 #19
I think it shows that through his supporters - and advertising - we're spreading his message! reformist2 Mar 2016 #25
Something that I found very interesting CoffeeCat Mar 2016 #39
Or... malokvale77 Mar 2016 #45
I really don't know what happened to them... CoffeeCat Mar 2016 #47
Maybe they were never really there to begin with. nt malokvale77 Mar 2016 #51
I hope all is true but . . snowy owl Mar 2016 #17
30% turnout RobertEarl Mar 2016 #28
I just watched the video of his CNN interview and he mentioned this Samantha Mar 2016 #18
Drop out NOW Bernie! Don't you know she is inevitable? jillan Mar 2016 #21
This also raises his national profile senz Mar 2016 #26
heard this tonite on my way home from work!!!!!! amborin Mar 2016 #32
I am sure if you add in the "I like Bernie better but the MSM told me he's a commie so he can't win" Bread and Circus Mar 2016 #37
But he is 321 delegates behind in the election that matters cosmicone Mar 2016 #38
Boom boom boom boom panader0 Mar 2016 #44
People are getting informed about Sanders, despite the news blackout... Peace Patriot Mar 2016 #46
Seabiscuit Sanders. I love it!! CoffeeCat Mar 2016 #48
Thanks! I stumbled upon the Seabiscuit analogy almost by accident... Peace Patriot Mar 2016 #54
Time and early primaries are and were his enemies. snowy owl Mar 2016 #49
You summed it up! THIS is what's happening! senz Mar 2016 #58
K&R for exposure. And for truth. eom Betty Karlson Mar 2016 #52
Kicked and recommended. Uncle Joe Mar 2016 #53
Go, Bernie...GO!! AzDar Mar 2016 #55
Her loss has been and continues to Land of Enchantment Mar 2016 #57
Don't worry. I always keep a hand in my pants just in case someone says, "Hold onto your butts!" randome Mar 2016 #59
Message auto-removed Name removed Mar 2016 #61
Really? Based on exactly what? Sad? It's about who voters think libdem4life Mar 2016 #63
 

NuclearDem

(16,184 posts)
1. The race isn't decided by a national popular vote.
Tue Mar 22, 2016, 12:39 AM
Mar 2016

It's decided by the popular vote in individual states, and the delegates awarded in respective proportions.

CoffeeCat

(24,411 posts)
7. These numbers speak to how far he has come since we started this thing in Iowa!!
Tue Mar 22, 2016, 12:43 AM
Mar 2016

I remember those national polls. Bernie was behind by 50. He had *maybe* 5 percent.

I agree with you. I've been saying that all along about national polls. They don't mean a thing when it comes to the states that are voting. I absolutely agree.

However, this national poll definitely speaks to the gains that he has made overall in this country. Only 5 percent were going for Bernie when we started out this journey. He's gained 40 points!

And he's closed a 50-point gap.

It's incredible and I am so proud of him, his campaign and his army of volunteers and supporters.

Dance with me!

roguevalley

(40,656 posts)
50. thanks, coffeecat. its an indicator. I have so much joy :D
Tue Mar 22, 2016, 02:45 AM
Mar 2016

in going to our caucus on Saturday. He's thrashing her here in Alaska.

Love ya, kid.

 

revbones

(3,660 posts)
34. Actually.
Tue Mar 22, 2016, 01:03 AM
Mar 2016

Just at a glance, it would seem to indicate stronger performance in upcoming races.

Here are my quick thoughts:

If Sanders is at 45% nationally, that's averaged right? Assuming that the numbers shown in the south which has already voted are truly representative of the south, then he would be much lower than 45% in the south right? So in order to receive the 45% average, he must be polling significantly higher in the upcoming states which have not voted yet right?


Perhaps there's a flaw in all that, but offhand it seems much more likely that he polls significantly higher in upcoming states. Feel free to poke holes in that logic.

blue neen

(12,308 posts)
41. I kind of understand what you're trying to say...
Tue Mar 22, 2016, 01:17 AM
Mar 2016

but am not sure how one could make an "accurate guess". For instance, even if they did poll some people in the South who already voted, some of those people could have changed their minds since their primaries.

It's also a little more difficult to figure out states that have Open Primaries where anyone can vote for a candidate from either party. My sister in Virginia had Democratic friends who were doing some "strategic" type voting for Republican candidates. Those Democrats may be choosing Bernie or Hillary when being polled now.

Your enthusiasm is good, though. Good luck.

politicaljunkie41910

(3,335 posts)
62. Thank you for stating that. I hate it when people state this nonsense and with such conviction.
Tue Mar 22, 2016, 09:06 PM
Mar 2016

National polls don't matter in the primary. State polls do.

Kalidurga

(14,177 posts)
31. Wow
Tue Mar 22, 2016, 01:01 AM
Mar 2016

You think we would lose solid blue states like Minnesota and California. Seriously, you should look at a history book or something or an electoral map like several maybe going back decades for all the national elections.

 

AgerolanAmerican

(1,000 posts)
4. "The margin of error for the sample of 388 Democratic primary voters is six percentage points."
Tue Mar 22, 2016, 12:41 AM
Mar 2016

This is called a tie game.

CoffeeCat

(24,411 posts)
9. Bernie has had consistent momentum and gains since we began in nearly a year ago!
Tue Mar 22, 2016, 12:45 AM
Mar 2016

Oh my god, it's been a YEAR!!!

Ups and downs for sure--but to come within 5 points nationally when you're down by 50. Incredible.

And to be sitting at 45 percent when you started out in the single digits--is very cool.

Punkingal

(9,522 posts)
6. I believe that enthusiasm part for sure.
Tue Mar 22, 2016, 12:43 AM
Mar 2016

The lack of enthusiasm will lose us the election in November if she is the nominee. Independents ad young people for sure won't be enthusiastic about her. It's a big problem.

CoffeeCat

(24,411 posts)
15. Do you know...is that why she hasn't been having rallies?
Tue Mar 22, 2016, 12:48 AM
Mar 2016

I wonder if she is concerned about the optics of her rallies.

Has she even had a rally lately?

She's been busy fundraising though. She had to hop off the campaign trail to do fundraisers.

It will be interesting to see if she does rallies and how well attended they are.

Those rallies have never been her strong suit. Enthusiasm does matter. It certainly will matter in the general.

Punkingal

(9,522 posts)
27. Personally, I don't think she likes rallies and that is why they are not her strong suit.
Tue Mar 22, 2016, 12:59 AM
Mar 2016

She is more comfortable in other settings. Truthfully, I don't think she is that much of a people person. Some people thrive on that sort of thing, like her husband and Bernie, for instance, but I don't think she does.

She has been doing a lot of fundraisers this week, but she will have to continue to do rallies, because Bernie is not letting her off the hook. She no doubt envisioned a very different campaign season than the one she is getting, thanks to good old Bernie! LOL

dchill

(38,324 posts)
35. "more comfortable in other settings. "
Tue Mar 22, 2016, 01:04 AM
Mar 2016

Like small rooms full of rich donors - without the hoi polloi. Way bigger payday.

Lorien

(31,935 posts)
12. Keep demanding that the media end the Bernie Blackout and 24/ 7 Trump-o-thon!
Tue Mar 22, 2016, 12:47 AM
Mar 2016

along with the "presumptive nominee" propaganda that they keep using to promote Hillary. Here's the particulars if you would like to join those of us who have already written!

General media contact information, including emails, addresses, and phone numbers:
http://fair.org/take-action-now/media-activism-kit/media-contact-list/

Other than voting, donating to Bernie, and talking to people you know about Bernie's policy positions and history, THE SINGLE GREATEST THING you can do to help his campaign is to WRITE A HARD COPY LETTER to the media protesting their Bernie Blackout and wall to wall Trump coverage! Mention that you will be contacting and boycotting their advertisers if they continue the Bernie blackout and Trump "infomercials". I know people who work in newsrooms, and I am told that one hard copy letter has the weight of 100 emails to a news director. This is, they have added, a huge reason why the media skews to the Right; right wingers mail in letters frequently, the Left never does, so the perception is that only the right wing is dissatisfied with their "reporting". Let us change that notion TODAY!

Please borrow time from posting here and on Facebook TODAY to write letters to FIVE of the organizations listed below. When finished, post the text of your letter and who you contacted to this thread.

ABC News: 147 Columbus Ave. New York, NY 10023

CBS News: 524 W. 57 St. New York, NY 10019

NBC News: 30 Rockefeller Plaza, New York, N.Y. 10112

MSNBC: One MSNBC Plaza, Secaucus, NJ 07094

CNN: One CNN Center, Atlanta, GA, 30303

New York Times: 620 8th Ave. New York, NY 10018

The Washington Post: 1301 K Street NW, Washington DC 20071

National Public Radio: 1111 N. Capitol St, NE, Washington DC, DC 20002


Remind them that the last time liberals mobilized to boycott the sponsors of a very biased media source THIS happened: http://deadstate.org/thanks-to-a-national-boycott-hate-radio-is-facing-a-20-million-bankruptcy/

If the Fairness Doctrine were still in place and Bernie were given equal time and fair coverage, this would be a very different race! MAKE IT SO!

 

RobertEarl

(13,685 posts)
24. That's Great Lorien
Tue Mar 22, 2016, 12:57 AM
Mar 2016

Is there any one with the outline of a digital campaign?

Twitter especially. I see twitter and I twutter. If anyone knows the ins and outs we could blow the twitter media outlets away.

CoffeeCat

(24,411 posts)
19. According to that poll, since Dec--Clinton as lost 2 points; Bernie has gained 13. Wow!
Tue Mar 22, 2016, 12:54 AM
Mar 2016

Bernie seems to be a on an upward trajectory, Clinton seems to be slowly ticking downward.

As the poll points out, the lack of enthusiasm for Clinton is troubling.

Because this race is drawn out and long--it is an opportunity for people to take a longer look at Bernie.

With longer primaries like this, there is always the chance that voters will catch a case of "Buyer's remorse" when it comes to Hillary, which David Axelrod has mentioned is a possibility with Democrats when it comes to HRC.

reformist2

(9,841 posts)
25. I think it shows that through his supporters - and advertising - we're spreading his message!
Tue Mar 22, 2016, 12:58 AM
Mar 2016

I'm not sure what Hillary fans have been doing, other than try to make fun of Bernie and his supporters. I would suggest to them - keep doing what you're doing... it seems to be helping Bernie!

CoffeeCat

(24,411 posts)
39. Something that I found very interesting
Tue Mar 22, 2016, 01:14 AM
Mar 2016

is what happened at the Polk County convention in Des Moines, Iowa two weeks ago.

I am a delegate for Bernie. Delegates were chosen the night of our Feb 1st caucuses. So, delegates were supposed to show up at the County Convention on 3/12.

Hillary Clinton won Polk County by 60 delegates. So, she should have been ahead by 60 delegates.

The first count of the day was: Sanders 532, Clinton 519. Bernie was ahead. Can you frickin believe that?

The Chair of our delegation told us that 100 of Clinton's delegates didn't show up to the County Convention.

If I were in the Clinton camp, I'd certainly be alarmed. Enthusiasm does matter.

Apparently 100 of her delegate didn't feel the need to roll out of bed and represent her!

snowy owl

(2,145 posts)
17. I hope all is true but . .
Tue Mar 22, 2016, 12:51 AM
Mar 2016

among my friends, I'm shocked at how many are still Hillary. I've done my best to show them but their old beliefs (it's time for a woman; he's too old; I liked Bill; the 90s were great; who is he? etc) keep them planted in the Hillary column. They, like so many Americans, are not political and don't want to be. It is really hard for me to keep friends because I'm disgusted with them. No matter what I show them or what I do to inform them, eventually they just laugh and trust their own perceptions and beliefs.

It really takes Bernie and one thing he said tonight was that he underestimated how much he could unite the country but he needed more time. That is the sad thing. Only Bernie can really show and convince voters who don't pay attention that he's the best choice. America suffers from this apathy.

 

RobertEarl

(13,685 posts)
28. 30% turnout
Tue Mar 22, 2016, 12:59 AM
Mar 2016

I wished I knew the answer to that. Bernie always states that if we have a big turnout.......

Samantha

(9,314 posts)
18. I just watched the video of his CNN interview and he mentioned this
Tue Mar 22, 2016, 12:52 AM
Mar 2016

I felt so happy to hear it. It is good to feel happy again.

K&R

Sam

jillan

(39,451 posts)
21. Drop out NOW Bernie! Don't you know she is inevitable?
Tue Mar 22, 2016, 12:55 AM
Mar 2016

It has been a great Bernie day.

Feeling pumped!!

 

senz

(11,945 posts)
26. This also raises his national profile
Tue Mar 22, 2016, 12:59 AM
Mar 2016

so the MSM attempt to keep him under wraps will be harder maintain.

Bread and Circus

(9,454 posts)
37. I am sure if you add in the "I like Bernie better but the MSM told me he's a commie so he can't win"
Tue Mar 22, 2016, 01:08 AM
Mar 2016

...folks then I am sure he would probably be ahead.

Peace Patriot

(24,010 posts)
46. People are getting informed about Sanders, despite the news blackout...
Tue Mar 22, 2016, 01:30 AM
Mar 2016

Last edited Tue Mar 22, 2016, 03:03 AM - Edit history (1)

...and the more they find out about him, the more they like him: long career of honesty and straight shooting; no corporate/billionaire money for his campaign; campaign financed entirely by millions of small donors--an astonishing accomplishment; New Deal-like programs to right the wrong of vast income inequality; decades of experience at the in's and out's of Congress, where he is well-liked; always attending to the needs of the many against the greed of the few. He is the candidate millions have hoped for, for decades--millions who thought it would never happen.

The contrary is true of Clinton. People are getting better informed about her, and the more they find out, the less they like her: her corruption of the Sec of State's office with pay-to-play at the Clinton Foundation, her use of her own email server for those transactions as well as getting classified info from a man with no security clearance whom Obama had banned from the administration--Sydney Blumenthal; her use of Henry Kissinger as an adviser, for godssakes, AND Robert (chief neocon) Kagan! (want wars much? Jeez!); her waffling on all major issues (now she's for the TPP and says it's the "gold standard" of trade agreements, now she's against it, sort of, etc.). Not trustworthy. Not honest. Sent her own daughter out in the media to lie about Sanders' health care plan. $200,000+ speeches to Goldman Sachs, of all the scumbags in the world! There are just SO MANY reasons to conclude that she is simply NOT the candidate of the 99% that Democrats are supposed to be (and have been historically).

But Sanders IS!

Sanders' gigantic rallies all over the country are working.
Internet activism is working.
Phone banking and canvassing are working.
Sanders' truly great ads are working.
Word of mouth is working.

The handicaps that this campaign have been burdened with have been enormous--some of them inflicted by our own party on Clinton's behalf. And now Sanders is catching up, in Clinton/Sanders matchups--from 50% down to only 5% down!--that is phenomenal!--and has been ahead of Clinton in matchups with Trump all along (beats Trump by twice the margin that Clinton does).

The Democratic Party establishment wants to crown a candidate who can't "close the deal." With her huge advantages, she should've been wa-a-a-y ahead by now. It should be over and it ISN'T. That is the "Seabiscuit"-like strength of the Sanders campaign.

Peace Patriot

(24,010 posts)
54. Thanks! I stumbled upon the Seabiscuit analogy almost by accident...
Tue Mar 22, 2016, 03:25 AM
Mar 2016

...in a post I wrote for the Bernie forum, then I expanded on it for GD: Primaries, here...

A "Seabiscuit" campaign that all can admire (Sanders)
http://www.democraticunderground.com/12511508694

This gives a fuller sense of the analogy--goes into Seabiscuit's history and the handicaps the horse was often burdened with--so like Sanders! Then I listed the Sanders' handicaps. Half way down the list, I suddenly referred to Sanders as "our Seabiscuit candidate"...and the rest is history! (he-he)

I don't claim any ownership of this analogy. It literally came from the gods! So it belongs to everyone. It is yours! Go forth and spread the good word: Americans love an underdog! (especially during an economic depression!)

snowy owl

(2,145 posts)
49. Time and early primaries are and were his enemies.
Tue Mar 22, 2016, 02:21 AM
Mar 2016

I bet a lot of voters rue their votes in those early primaries. And time is almost up.

 

senz

(11,945 posts)
58. You summed it up! THIS is what's happening!
Tue Mar 22, 2016, 12:35 PM
Mar 2016

I wish you'd take that and make it an editorial somewhere or even some kind of OP here -- it needs to get more eyes. You do a tremendous service to people when you help them put their impressions into an orderly, rational context. You just did it for the current situation with Bernie and Hill.

Please consider it, Peace Patriot!

 

randome

(34,845 posts)
59. Don't worry. I always keep a hand in my pants just in case someone says, "Hold onto your butts!"
Tue Mar 22, 2016, 12:40 PM
Mar 2016

Now I feel fulfilled.
[hr][font color="blue"][center]A ton of bricks, a ton of feathers, it's still gonna hurt.[/center][/font][hr]

Response to CoffeeCat (Original post)

 

libdem4life

(13,877 posts)
63. Really? Based on exactly what? Sad? It's about who voters think
Tue Mar 22, 2016, 09:26 PM
Mar 2016

is good for the country. It's called democracy.

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