2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumHold on to your butts! Bernie within 5 of Clinton in CBS/NYT national poll
New CBS/NYTimes poll shows Clinton at 50 percent, Bernie at 45 in a new national poll released today.
The gap is 5 points now; in February Clinton was up by 8.
The poll findings suggest an "enthusiasm gap:" while 56 percent of Democratic primary voters would enthusiastically support Sanders if he wins the nomination, just 40 percent say the same if Clinton should win.
And each side's supporters say they would support the other candidate: among Sanders' supporters, 19 percent say they would not support Clinton, while just 11 percent of Clinton's supporters would not support Sanders.
Pretty incredible, indeed. When this race began, Bernie was behind by 50 points. Bernie's message is resonating. The more that America gets to know him, the more his numbers rise. This bodes well going into our next group of Bernie-friendly states!
more info/stats at link:
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/hillary-clinton-leads-bernie-sanders-in-national-cbsnyt-poll/
NuclearDem
(16,184 posts)It's decided by the popular vote in individual states, and the delegates awarded in respective proportions.
CoffeeCat
(24,411 posts)I remember those national polls. Bernie was behind by 50. He had *maybe* 5 percent.
I agree with you. I've been saying that all along about national polls. They don't mean a thing when it comes to the states that are voting. I absolutely agree.
However, this national poll definitely speaks to the gains that he has made overall in this country. Only 5 percent were going for Bernie when we started out this journey. He's gained 40 points!
And he's closed a 50-point gap.
It's incredible and I am so proud of him, his campaign and his army of volunteers and supporters.
Dance with me!
roguevalley
(40,656 posts)in going to our caucus on Saturday. He's thrashing her here in Alaska.
Love ya, kid.
reformist2
(9,841 posts)NuclearDem
(16,184 posts)reformist2
(9,841 posts)blue neen
(12,308 posts)The article at the link said nationwide.
revbones
(3,660 posts)Just at a glance, it would seem to indicate stronger performance in upcoming races.
Here are my quick thoughts:
If Sanders is at 45% nationally, that's averaged right? Assuming that the numbers shown in the south which has already voted are truly representative of the south, then he would be much lower than 45% in the south right? So in order to receive the 45% average, he must be polling significantly higher in the upcoming states which have not voted yet right?
Perhaps there's a flaw in all that, but offhand it seems much more likely that he polls significantly higher in upcoming states. Feel free to poke holes in that logic.
blue neen
(12,308 posts)but am not sure how one could make an "accurate guess". For instance, even if they did poll some people in the South who already voted, some of those people could have changed their minds since their primaries.
It's also a little more difficult to figure out states that have Open Primaries where anyone can vote for a candidate from either party. My sister in Virginia had Democratic friends who were doing some "strategic" type voting for Republican candidates. Those Democrats may be choosing Bernie or Hillary when being polled now.
Your enthusiasm is good, though. Good luck.
Lizzie Poppet
(10,164 posts)The presidency is a "borderless" national office. It should be voted on that way.
politicaljunkie41910
(3,335 posts)National polls don't matter in the primary. State polls do.
jfern
(5,204 posts)BreakfastClub
(765 posts)jfern
(5,204 posts)Kalidurga
(14,177 posts)You think we would lose solid blue states like Minnesota and California. Seriously, you should look at a history book or something or an electoral map like several maybe going back decades for all the national elections.
dchill
(38,324 posts)Your hyperbole is showing.
And they talk about Bernie supporters
dchill
(38,324 posts)They also worry and fret about them. They probably should.
litlbilly
(2,227 posts)RandySF
(57,659 posts)And what is 19% of of 50%.
reformist2
(9,841 posts)bahrbearian
(13,466 posts)AgerolanAmerican
(1,000 posts)This is called a tie game.
highprincipleswork
(3,111 posts)CoffeeCat
(24,411 posts)Oh my god, it's been a YEAR!!!
Ups and downs for sure--but to come within 5 points nationally when you're down by 50. Incredible.
And to be sitting at 45 percent when you started out in the single digits--is very cool.
Punkingal
(9,522 posts)The lack of enthusiasm will lose us the election in November if she is the nominee. Independents ad young people for sure won't be enthusiastic about her. It's a big problem.
CoffeeCat
(24,411 posts)I wonder if she is concerned about the optics of her rallies.
Has she even had a rally lately?
She's been busy fundraising though. She had to hop off the campaign trail to do fundraisers.
It will be interesting to see if she does rallies and how well attended they are.
Those rallies have never been her strong suit. Enthusiasm does matter. It certainly will matter in the general.
Punkingal
(9,522 posts)She is more comfortable in other settings. Truthfully, I don't think she is that much of a people person. Some people thrive on that sort of thing, like her husband and Bernie, for instance, but I don't think she does.
She has been doing a lot of fundraisers this week, but she will have to continue to do rallies, because Bernie is not letting her off the hook. She no doubt envisioned a very different campaign season than the one she is getting, thanks to good old Bernie! LOL
dchill
(38,324 posts)Like small rooms full of rich donors - without the hoi polloi. Way bigger payday.
flamingdem
(39,304 posts)Lorien
(31,935 posts)along with the "presumptive nominee" propaganda that they keep using to promote Hillary. Here's the particulars if you would like to join those of us who have already written!
General media contact information, including emails, addresses, and phone numbers:
http://fair.org/take-action-now/media-activism-kit/media-contact-list/
Other than voting, donating to Bernie, and talking to people you know about Bernie's policy positions and history, THE SINGLE GREATEST THING you can do to help his campaign is to WRITE A HARD COPY LETTER to the media protesting their Bernie Blackout and wall to wall Trump coverage! Mention that you will be contacting and boycotting their advertisers if they continue the Bernie blackout and Trump "infomercials". I know people who work in newsrooms, and I am told that one hard copy letter has the weight of 100 emails to a news director. This is, they have added, a huge reason why the media skews to the Right; right wingers mail in letters frequently, the Left never does, so the perception is that only the right wing is dissatisfied with their "reporting". Let us change that notion TODAY!
Please borrow time from posting here and on Facebook TODAY to write letters to FIVE of the organizations listed below. When finished, post the text of your letter and who you contacted to this thread.
ABC News: 147 Columbus Ave. New York, NY 10023
CBS News: 524 W. 57 St. New York, NY 10019
NBC News: 30 Rockefeller Plaza, New York, N.Y. 10112
MSNBC: One MSNBC Plaza, Secaucus, NJ 07094
CNN: One CNN Center, Atlanta, GA, 30303
New York Times: 620 8th Ave. New York, NY 10018
The Washington Post: 1301 K Street NW, Washington DC 20071
National Public Radio: 1111 N. Capitol St, NE, Washington DC, DC 20002
Remind them that the last time liberals mobilized to boycott the sponsors of a very biased media source THIS happened: http://deadstate.org/thanks-to-a-national-boycott-hate-radio-is-facing-a-20-million-bankruptcy/
If the Fairness Doctrine were still in place and Bernie were given equal time and fair coverage, this would be a very different race! MAKE IT SO!
RobertEarl
(13,685 posts)Is there any one with the outline of a digital campaign?
Twitter especially. I see twitter and I twutter. If anyone knows the ins and outs we could blow the twitter media outlets away.
Lorien
(31,935 posts)for the MSM?
RobertEarl
(13,685 posts)Just figuring out an effective twitter strategy would be a leg up. Anyone?
marions ghost
(19,841 posts)reformist2
(9,841 posts)CoffeeCat
(24,411 posts)Bernie seems to be a on an upward trajectory, Clinton seems to be slowly ticking downward.
As the poll points out, the lack of enthusiasm for Clinton is troubling.
Because this race is drawn out and long--it is an opportunity for people to take a longer look at Bernie.
With longer primaries like this, there is always the chance that voters will catch a case of "Buyer's remorse" when it comes to Hillary, which David Axelrod has mentioned is a possibility with Democrats when it comes to HRC.
reformist2
(9,841 posts)I'm not sure what Hillary fans have been doing, other than try to make fun of Bernie and his supporters. I would suggest to them - keep doing what you're doing... it seems to be helping Bernie!
CoffeeCat
(24,411 posts)is what happened at the Polk County convention in Des Moines, Iowa two weeks ago.
I am a delegate for Bernie. Delegates were chosen the night of our Feb 1st caucuses. So, delegates were supposed to show up at the County Convention on 3/12.
Hillary Clinton won Polk County by 60 delegates. So, she should have been ahead by 60 delegates.
The first count of the day was: Sanders 532, Clinton 519. Bernie was ahead. Can you frickin believe that?
The Chair of our delegation told us that 100 of Clinton's delegates didn't show up to the County Convention.
If I were in the Clinton camp, I'd certainly be alarmed. Enthusiasm does matter.
Apparently 100 of her delegate didn't feel the need to roll out of bed and represent her!
malokvale77
(4,879 posts)they were too busy sniping at Bernie supporters on DU. LOL.
CoffeeCat
(24,411 posts)it's kind of a mystery.
malokvale77
(4,879 posts)snowy owl
(2,145 posts)among my friends, I'm shocked at how many are still Hillary. I've done my best to show them but their old beliefs (it's time for a woman; he's too old; I liked Bill; the 90s were great; who is he? etc) keep them planted in the Hillary column. They, like so many Americans, are not political and don't want to be. It is really hard for me to keep friends because I'm disgusted with them. No matter what I show them or what I do to inform them, eventually they just laugh and trust their own perceptions and beliefs.
It really takes Bernie and one thing he said tonight was that he underestimated how much he could unite the country but he needed more time. That is the sad thing. Only Bernie can really show and convince voters who don't pay attention that he's the best choice. America suffers from this apathy.
RobertEarl
(13,685 posts)I wished I knew the answer to that. Bernie always states that if we have a big turnout.......
Samantha
(9,314 posts)I felt so happy to hear it. It is good to feel happy again.
K&R
Sam
jillan
(39,451 posts)It has been a great Bernie day.
Feeling pumped!!
senz
(11,945 posts)so the MSM attempt to keep him under wraps will be harder maintain.
amborin
(16,631 posts)Bread and Circus
(9,454 posts)...folks then I am sure he would probably be ahead.
cosmicone
(11,014 posts)panader0
(25,816 posts)Peace Patriot
(24,010 posts)Last edited Tue Mar 22, 2016, 03:03 AM - Edit history (1)
...and the more they find out about him, the more they like him: long career of honesty and straight shooting; no corporate/billionaire money for his campaign; campaign financed entirely by millions of small donors--an astonishing accomplishment; New Deal-like programs to right the wrong of vast income inequality; decades of experience at the in's and out's of Congress, where he is well-liked; always attending to the needs of the many against the greed of the few. He is the candidate millions have hoped for, for decades--millions who thought it would never happen.
The contrary is true of Clinton. People are getting better informed about her, and the more they find out, the less they like her: her corruption of the Sec of State's office with pay-to-play at the Clinton Foundation, her use of her own email server for those transactions as well as getting classified info from a man with no security clearance whom Obama had banned from the administration--Sydney Blumenthal; her use of Henry Kissinger as an adviser, for godssakes, AND Robert (chief neocon) Kagan! (want wars much? Jeez!); her waffling on all major issues (now she's for the TPP and says it's the "gold standard" of trade agreements, now she's against it, sort of, etc.). Not trustworthy. Not honest. Sent her own daughter out in the media to lie about Sanders' health care plan. $200,000+ speeches to Goldman Sachs, of all the scumbags in the world! There are just SO MANY reasons to conclude that she is simply NOT the candidate of the 99% that Democrats are supposed to be (and have been historically).
But Sanders IS!
Sanders' gigantic rallies all over the country are working.
Internet activism is working.
Phone banking and canvassing are working.
Sanders' truly great ads are working.
Word of mouth is working.
The handicaps that this campaign have been burdened with have been enormous--some of them inflicted by our own party on Clinton's behalf. And now Sanders is catching up, in Clinton/Sanders matchups--from 50% down to only 5% down!--that is phenomenal!--and has been ahead of Clinton in matchups with Trump all along (beats Trump by twice the margin that Clinton does).
The Democratic Party establishment wants to crown a candidate who can't "close the deal." With her huge advantages, she should've been wa-a-a-y ahead by now. It should be over and it ISN'T. That is the "Seabiscuit"-like strength of the Sanders campaign.
CoffeeCat
(24,411 posts)You get full credit, of course!
Peace Patriot
(24,010 posts)...in a post I wrote for the Bernie forum, then I expanded on it for GD: Primaries, here...
A "Seabiscuit" campaign that all can admire (Sanders)
http://www.democraticunderground.com/12511508694
This gives a fuller sense of the analogy--goes into Seabiscuit's history and the handicaps the horse was often burdened with--so like Sanders! Then I listed the Sanders' handicaps. Half way down the list, I suddenly referred to Sanders as "our Seabiscuit candidate"...and the rest is history! (he-he)
I don't claim any ownership of this analogy. It literally came from the gods! So it belongs to everyone. It is yours! Go forth and spread the good word: Americans love an underdog! (especially during an economic depression!)
snowy owl
(2,145 posts)I bet a lot of voters rue their votes in those early primaries. And time is almost up.
senz
(11,945 posts)I wish you'd take that and make it an editorial somewhere or even some kind of OP here -- it needs to get more eyes. You do a tremendous service to people when you help them put their impressions into an orderly, rational context. You just did it for the current situation with Bernie and Hill.
Please consider it, Peace Patriot!
Betty Karlson
(7,231 posts)Uncle Joe
(58,112 posts)Thanks for the thread, CoffeeCat.
AzDar
(14,023 posts)Land of Enchantment
(1,217 posts)be his gain. She can only go down and Bernie Rises!
randome
(34,845 posts)Now I feel fulfilled.
[hr][font color="blue"][center]A ton of bricks, a ton of feathers, it's still gonna hurt.[/center][/font][hr]
Response to CoffeeCat (Original post)
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libdem4life
(13,877 posts)is good for the country. It's called democracy.