2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forum"But Sanders hasn't been attacked by Republicans yet!"
Yes, he may be polling stronger against all of the Republican candidates for President than Hillary Clinton does, but wait until the Republicans attack him. Yes, Sanders may have the highest favorability ratings of any major candidate for President, but you know, Republicans haven't attacked him yet. Yes, Sanders appeals strongly to Political Independents, who are more numerous than either Democrats or Republicans, but only because so far the latter haven't attacked him. Yes, the Presidential campaign has been going on now for almost a year, and the more the public finds out about Bernie Sanders the more they tend to like him, but just wait for those Republicans attacks. The fact that Bernie's won hundreds of thousands more youth votes than Hillary and Trump combined so far means nothing before Republican attacks. And the fact that Sanders wins sky high approval ratings from the voters in his home state where he repeatedly wins easy reelection, well that's only because Republicans there have never attac... umm, scratch that last one - everyone knows that Vermont doesn't really count.
Sanders hasn't been attacked by the Republicans yet? Oh, really? Bernie Sanders has spent his entire political career to the left of the Democratic Party. It's not exactly a secret. And the mainstream media was positively gleeful about introducing Bernie Sanders to those Americans who didn't already know him as "the Socialist Senator from Vermont." Bernie Sanders is the living breathing representation of the Republican sponsored Red Scare that's run nonstop for the last half century, that cat is already out of the bag, and you know what? Bernie doesn't scare anyone except the Super Rich.
If the Presidential election were held today in the neon red state of Utah, UTAH, Sanders would beat Trump there by double digits, while Clinton would be locked in a statistical tie. Bernie doesn't have sex scandals, he doesn't have money scandals, and he can't be ridiculed as a flip flopper because he's been so damned consistent for so damned long. You can't catch Sanders saying one thing to voters and another to his financial backers, because they are actually one and the same, and Bernie proudly says the same thing to everyone. He spins about as much as a Pre Global Warming glacier. AND Bernie opposed the Iraq War, damned straight he did.
But he'll melt when Republicans attack him. Uh huh.
DemocracyDirect
(708 posts)astrophuss42
(290 posts)That's what they offered.
I took W's bribe.
Monica is a right wing conspiracy.
I provide arms for wars.... In order to grow my charity!
Orrex
(63,172 posts)Mail Message
On Tue Mar 22, 2016, 01:12 PM an alert was sent on the following post:
Sounds a lot more bulletproof to me than:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1251&pid=1551069
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Using Monica to smear Hillary? C'mon. Sexist bullshit. Hide it.
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Leave it.
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desmiller
(747 posts)arcane1
(38,613 posts)At least the jury was relatively honest.
litlbilly
(2,227 posts)Betty Karlson
(7,231 posts)merrily
(45,251 posts)at the federal level. Many on the state and local level as well, amid a lot of pressure from the party to support Hillary, according to Democrats who have withstood that pressure to endorse Bernie. And by the DNC. And by Hillary, the Hillary campaign and its surrogates.
Indeed, he's been attacked all his life, sometimes physically.
He'll do just fine when he can take off the gloves and really go at an asshat like Trump, Cruz or Kasich.
NEXT!
Thanks for another great OP, Tom.
Tom Rinaldo
(22,911 posts)They don't come tougher than Bernie. He will stand up to anyone for what he believes in. Good thing that thing is "us".
merrily
(45,251 posts)any poll that does not favor Hillary. That, of course, goes without saying, but I wanted to mention it anyway, just in case any forgot all the posts by Hillary's supporters that said just that.
However, the only information we have, or can have, about how a potential Democratic nominee might do in the general, one of the most important political issues of 2016, are head to head match up polls. They may be reliable, they may not. However, on the most important political issue of 2016, head to head match up polls are the only information we have or can possibly have before a nominee is chosen and it's too late to re-consider. And Sanders does significantly better than Hillary on those.
For example, Hillary supporters who have been pooh poohing head to head match up polls hastened to headline that Hillary did all of 2 points better than Trump in Utah, while burying or omitting entirely that Bernie did significantly better than Hillary against Trump in Utah--8 points, was it?
While Clinton was only slightly ahead of Trump 38 percent to 36 percent Sanders, a self-declared Democratic socialist, holds a substantial lead 48 percent to 37 percent over the billionaire businessman and reality TV star among likely Utah voters. http://www.deseretnews.com/article/865650513/Poll-Utah-would-vote-for-a-Democrat-for-president-over-Trump.html?pg=all
I'm guessing Hillary's 2 points is closer to that poll's margin of error than is Sanders' 11 points. However, the bad news for Democrats is that the same story says Kasich beats both Hillary and Bernie. Question: Who has a better chance of turning that sad fact around, Hillary or Bernie?
My money's on Bernie, both literally and figuratively.
Tom Rinaldo
(22,911 posts)...and damn all the evidence that shows the exact opposite.
merrily
(45,251 posts)blm
(113,010 posts)they damage any chance at unity. Seems to me they have forgotten 2008 and how angered they were at any hint that it was time for Clinton to end her participation in the primary race.
lewebley3
(3,412 posts)Fawke Em
(11,366 posts)lewebley3
(3,412 posts)He said they all came with new email address: and suddenly
very active about attacking Hillary.
I think it has been going on all along.
highprincipleswork
(3,111 posts)Here are the real infiltrators. Some kind of social service-cutting, warfare raging Republican-like types have infiltrated the Democratic Party for far too long!
lewebley3
(3,412 posts)merrily
(45,251 posts)particular reason.
Wave, nod and smile and save your time and considerable skills. JMO
litlbilly
(2,227 posts)lewebley3
(3,412 posts)Sanders just is not Presidential: I would never trust him in
the White House.
litlbilly
(2,227 posts)lewebley3
(3,412 posts)Doctor_J
(36,392 posts)Mrs. Clinton nd her supporters have decided to insult Sanders, his supporters, and all liberals and progressives using words taken straight from freeperville. A liberal boycott of voting for DINOs is in order. Otherwise we will continue to get republican policies forever.
blm
(113,010 posts)Remember, Doc - I've been here for a few primaries at this point. ; )
PS: Good to see ya.
apnu
(8,749 posts)That remains to be seen in practice, Bernie is no joke and he's been round the block a few times.
However, the GOP wants Bernie in the GE so they can run on an anti-socialism/anti-communist platform. That will play really well with their base and with the older crowd. Its familiar territory for them, its a narrative that writes itself and the media will be both unwitting and gleeful helping the GOP tell that narrative.
If that's the case, then the 2016 GE of Sanders vs Trump or Cruz, will really be about old people vs young and minorities and who can drum out more to the polls.
Tom Rinaldo
(22,911 posts)Where the GOP narrative goes horribly off the tracks for them is the part where their Democratic opponent normally shifts into a defensive posture - where Bernie doesn't. That is new and unfamiliar terrain for them, but it is the grounds that Sanders is most comfortable fighting on.
apnu
(8,749 posts)For too long liberals have been door mats to conservatives. Bernie embraces who he is and what he's about and isn't the least bit ashamed about it.
We could do with a few more proud lefties/liberals/progressives in government.
anotherproletariat
(1,446 posts)of Americans had never heard of him before last year. Remember that DU is not a good representative sample.
Tom Rinaldo
(22,911 posts)Once upon a time they tended to think it would be easy to defeat him. They tended to think wrong. They thought so this year also, he may yet lose, but he has taken them by surprise once again, even with the odds so stacked against him.
scscholar
(2,902 posts)So hard.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)Repeatedly running for office in lovely little Vermont does not prepare one for a hard core national Presidential campaign.
Loudestlib
(980 posts)Who has?
DCBob
(24,689 posts)They fear her and would love to have the Socialist from Vermont as their opponent.
Loudestlib
(980 posts)The GOP candidates are attacking each other more than anyone else. She's never won a primary and she's never faced a GOP backed national campaign against her. People already have a negative opinion of her and she has a ton of baggage.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)Do you ever listen to RW radio? Its almost non-stop bash Hillary when they arent bashing Obama.
Loudestlib
(980 posts)It's not a focused national campaign against her. They go after socialism, liberals, Al, Gore, climate change, etc... all the time. Their base is full of a-holes, they are appealing to their base.
Orsino
(37,428 posts)That's not, however, anything particularly worth bragging about. They haven't been attacking her with substance.
dlwickham
(3,316 posts)and she's still here
Gothmog
(144,919 posts)Dana Milbank has some good comments on general election match up polls https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/democrats-would-be-insane-to-nominate-bernie-sanders/2016/01/26/0590e624-c472-11e5-a4aa-f25866ba0dc6_story.html?hpid=hp_opinions-for-wide-side_opinion-card-a%3Ahomepage%2Fstory
Watching Sanders at Monday nights Democratic presidential forum in Des Moines, I imagined how Trump or another Republican nominee would disembowel the relatively unknown Vermonter.
The first questioner from the audience asked Sanders to explain why he embraces the socialist label and requested that Sanders define it so that it doesnt concern the rest of us citizens.
Sanders, explaining that much of what he proposes is happening in Scandinavia and Germany (a concept that itself alarms Americans who dont want to be like socialized Europe), answered vaguely: Creating a government that works for all of us, not just a handful of people on the top thats my definition of democratic socialism.
But thats not how Republicans will define socialism and theyll have the dictionary on their side. Theyll portray Sanders as one who wants the government to own and control major industries and the means of production and distribution of goods. Theyll say he wants to take away private property. That wouldnt be fair, but it would be easy. Socialists dont win national elections in the United States .
Sanders on Monday night also admitted he would seek massive tax increases one of the biggest tax hikes in history, as moderator Chris Cuomo put it to expand Medicare to all. Sanders, this time making a comparison with Britain and France, allowed that hypothetically, youre going to pay $5,000 more in taxes, and declared, W e will raise taxes, yes we will. He said this would be offset by lower health-insurance premiums and protested that its demagogic to say, oh, youre paying more in taxes.
Well, yes and Trump is a demagogue.
Sanders also made clear he would be happy to identify Democrats as the party of big government and of wealth redistribution. When Cuomo said Sanders seemed to be saying he would grow government bigger than ever, Sanders didnt quarrel, saying, P eople want to criticize me, okay, and F ine, if thats the criticism, I accept it.
Sanders accepts it, but are Democrats ready to accept ownership of socialism, massive tax increases and a dramatic expansion of government? If so, they will lose.
Match up polls are worthless because these polls do not measure what would happen to Sanders in a general election where Sanders is very vulnerable to negative ads.
Persondem
(1,936 posts)kibbutz, the honeymoon in USSR, his being a CO during Vietnam, his being on record multiple times as a tax raising socialist ... it goes on and on. The attack ads write themselves.
Running for office in little ole VT is NOTHING like running for Prez.
BeyondGeography
(39,346 posts)And you know the saying about explaining.
Kalidurga
(14,177 posts)Match up polls are worthless because these polls do not measure what would happen to Sanders in a general election
Let's say you are right. How do you think Hillary goes from performing worse in match up polls to performing better in a real life situation?
Dem2
(8,166 posts)Democrats have faced over the years. It is a concern, no doubt.
Gothmog
(144,919 posts)According to this article, Sanders has been treated with kid gloves by the Clinton campaign to date. However the GOP will not be as kind to Sanders. This article from VOX has some good predictions as to how nasty the GOP and the Kochs will be http://www.vox.com/2016/2/3/10903404/gop-campaign-against-sanders
Sanders would be the oldest president ever to take office older than John McCain, who faced serious questions about this in 2008.
Sanders is a socialist. "No, no," you explain, "it's democratic socialist, like in Denmark." I'm sure GOP attack ads will take that distinction into careful consideration.
Sanders explicitly wants to raise taxes, and not only on the rich.
That's just the obvious stuff. And he has barely been hit on any of it so far.
I have no real way of knowing whether Sanders and his advisers appreciate what's coming if he wins the nomination, or whether they have a serious plan to deal with it, something beyond hoping a political revolution will drown it out.
But at least based on my experience, the Bernie legions are not prepared. They seem convinced that the white working class would rally to the flag of democratic socialism. And they are in a state of perpetual umbrage that Sanders isn't receiving the respect he's due, that he's facing even mild attacks from Clinton's camp.
If they are aware that it's been patty-cakes so far, that much, much worse and more vicious attacks are inevitable, and that no one knows how Sanders might perform with a giant political machine working to define him as an unhinged leftist, they hide it well.
In the name of diverting some small percentage of the social media bile surely headed my way, let's be clear about a few things: This is not an argument against supporting Sanders. There's nothing dumber than making political decisions based on how the other side might react. (For one thing, that would have foreclosed supporting Obama, a black urbanite with a funny name, in 2008.)
But it is an argument that Sanders has gaping vulnerabilities that have not yet been exploited at all, so his followers should not yet feel sanguine about his ability to endure conservative attacks. Also they should get a thicker skin, quick.
The GOP will have a great deal of material to work with and the Kochs will be spending $887 million, and the RNC candidate may spend another billion dollars. These groups will have a great deal to work with
Dem2
(8,166 posts)Bernie has the rhetorical and intellectual chops to be President, but this isn't your grandma's election - the GOP seems loaded for bear this cycle and if one doesn't consider these issues you've raised, that feeling of a 2 X 4 to the face could be quite real this fall.
Uncle Joe
(58,284 posts)Thanks for the thread, Tom Rinaldo.
Gothmog
(144,919 posts)The concept that the Clinton campaign has been very negative on Sanders is simply false when you look at what Sanders would be subject to if he was the Democratic nominee. VOX had a good article on the potential lines of attack that Sanders would be exposed to if Sanders was the nominee. http://www.vox.com/2016/2/3/10903404/gop-campaign-against-sanders One of the more interesting observations in the VOX analysis is the fact that Sanders have been treated with kids gloves compared to what Sanders would face if he was the Democratic nominee. I strongly agree with the VOX's position that the so-called negative attacks against Sander have been mild. Form the article:
When Sanders supporters discuss these attacks, though, they do so in tones of barely contained outrage, as though it is simply disgusting what they have to put up with. Questioning the practical achievability of single-payer health care. Impugning the broad electoral appeal of socialism. Is nothing sacred?
But c'mon. This stuff is patty-cakes compared with the brutalization he would face at the hands of the right in a general election.
His supporters would need to recalibrate their umbrage-o-meters in a serious way.
The attacks that would be levied against Sanders by the Kochs, the RNC candidate and others in a general election contest would make the so-called attacks against Sanders look like patty-cakes. The GOP and Kochs are not known for being nice or honest and as the article notes there are a ton of good topics available for attack. Raising taxes is never a good campaign platform (Just ask President Mondale). The GOP would also raise the socialism and age issues if Sanders was the nominee.
Again, I agree with the VOX position that so far, Sanders has not been subject to negative attacks close to what the GOP would use against Sanders and the attacks against Sanders if he was the nominee would be brutal. I urge Sanders supporters to read the VOX article to start to get a feel for what real negative attacks would look like.
oldandhappy
(6,719 posts)I suspect he has a good idea of all that is coming. He has witnessed a lot of campaigns and he has lived with the clintons and repub colleagues for many years.
Gothmog
(144,919 posts)The attack ads from this appearance on Meet the Press write themselves https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2015/10/12/why-bernie-sanders-isnt-going-to-be-president-in-5-words/
Meet the Press ✔ @meetthepress
CHUCK TODD: Are you a capitalist?@BernieSanders: No. I'm a Democratic Socialist.
8:33 AM - 11 Oct 2015
And, in those five words, Sanders showed why no matter how much energy there is for him on the liberal left he isn't getting elected president.
Why? Because Democrat or Republican (or independent), capitalism remains a pretty popular concept especially when compared to socialism. A 2011 Pew Research Center survey showed that 50 percent of people had a favorable view of capitalism, while 40 percent had an unfavorable one. Of socialism, just three in 10 had a positive opinion, while 61 percent saw it in a negative light.
Wrote Pew in a memo analyzing the results:
Of these terms, socialism is the more politically polarizing the reaction is almost universally negative among conservatives, while generally positive among liberals. While there are substantial differences in how liberals and conservatives think of capitalism, the gaps are far narrower.
...The simple political fact is that if Sanders did ever manage to win the Democratic presidential nomination a long shot but far from a no shot at this point Republicans would simply clip Sanders's answer to Todd above and put it in a 30-second TV ad. That would, almost certainly, be the end of Sanders's viability in a general election.
Americans might be increasingly aware of the economic inequality in the country and increasingly suspicious of so-called vulture capitalism all of which has helped fuel Sanders's rise. But we are not electing someone who is an avowed socialist to the nation's top political job. Just ain't happening.
You can try to argue that the two terms are not the same but that will not stop the Kochs from running $200 milion to $300 million using that term in negative ads that would be very effective.
Thinkingabout
(30,058 posts)points the GOP has attempted to make scandals, doesn't mean they have to be true.
stevenleser
(32,886 posts)1. There is so much there that is true that it would be very effective
2. Sanders isn't the policy wonk that a Hillary, Obama, Kerry or Gore is and doesnt have the backup they have by going into the details. His proposals are all very superficial and ideological.
Thinkingabout
(30,058 posts)KitSileya
(4,035 posts)They'll look into his family history, and his kids. Trump may have been married three times, but I believe his three kids are working well with him. I don't know much about Sanders, but I believe he has a son that he's not very close to? I may be mistaken there - I haven't felt it right to dig into his personal life, but the GOP certainly will. They'll blow up the articles he wrote in his 30s too. They'll paint him as a rapist and a pedophile by insinuation. There's a lot of ugly spin they can put on it, and the GOP is the masters of the ugly spin.
While Sanders has been to the left of most of his peers in Congress, I think that his independent status has protected him, as has the fact that he comes from Vermont. He has attacked the Dems, and the GOP will have seen that as beneficial. The enemy of my enemy is my friend, after all. Besides, Vermont is such a tiny liberal state, it's not like the GOP national party has bothered to go on the offensive there - why waste the resources?
Lifelong Protester
(8,421 posts)I was Really?
Ed Suspicious
(8,879 posts)Pukes don't scare me.
ecstatic
(32,652 posts)They've avoided mentioning the VA scandal for the most part, but that's what they're going to use. They'll tie his blind faith in the VA to his single payer plan and convince Americans that his single payer plan would have people dying while waiting for care.
There is, right now, as we speak, a concerted effort to undermine the V.A., Mr. Sanders said in May 2014, two weeks after the story was picked up by national news organizations. You have folks out there now Koch brothers and others who want to radically change the nature of society, and either make major cuts in all of these institutions, or maybe do away with them entirely.
But the scandal deepened: The secretary of veterans affairs resigned. Reports showed major problems at dozens of V.A. hospitals. And an Obama administration review revealed significant and chronic systemic leadership failures in the hospital system.
Mr. Sanders eventually changed course, becoming critical of the agency and ultimately joining with Senator John McCain, the Arizona Republican, and other colleagues to draft a bipartisan bill to try to fix the veterans health care waiting list.
http://mobile.nytimes.com/2016/02/07/us/politics/faith-in-agency-clouded-bernie-sanderss-va-response.html?referer=
So there you go. You asked, so don't shoot the messenger. Sanders was so blinded by ideology that he failed to act in a timely manner to a serious problem. Does that sound similar to another current scandal (which I won't name)? Not good at all. Just think about the swiftboat like commercials of family members of vets.
Kalidurga
(14,177 posts)I doubt they can come up with anything worse than Camp Weather-vane has offered up.
ecstatic
(32,652 posts)Kalidurga
(14,177 posts)Kip Humphrey
(4,753 posts)Bernie's campaign in order to blunt Bernie's rising popularity - not an indicator that Bernie is a candidate vulnerable to verbal attacks.
Gothmog
(144,919 posts)You got to be kidding. The Clinton campaign has been treating Sanders with kids gloves. The GOP will not be that nice. The so-called attacks on Sanders by the Clintons are nothing compared to what Sanders would face in the general election against the Kochs, Rove, Trump and the RNC
litlbilly
(2,227 posts)Tierra_y_Libertad
(50,414 posts)Tom Rinaldo
(22,911 posts)You know what many of them remind me of? How the establishment Republicans stayed in a terminal state of denial over Trumps's strong appeal to voters during an anti-establishment election year. You can change just a few phrases and it is identical: "Wait until the voters finally see the hit ads that reveal that Donald Trump really isn't a Conservative, boy will they reject him then!". Or "Voters will never embrace a candidate who dissed a war hero, wait till voters learn about that!" That is classic fallacy of outdated conventional wisdom. The real truth was staring them in the face all along but they just couldn't see it - because it went against their well memorized script.
In 1992 a young guy from the small state of Arkansas, who had traveled to the Soviet Union, who many voters felt had dodged the draft, who both admitted use of drugs AND got pegged as dishonest for how he did it ("but I didn't inhale" defeated a sitting U.S. President who was a bona fide war hero. THAT WAS 24 YEARS AGO PEOPLE. Yes there will be voters turned off by Sanders being a "scary socialist", but how many of them are a lost cause for any Democratic candidate to begin with? Every election cycle more and more of those types literally "die off".
Meanwhile how many voters will ultimately embrace the candidate who they believe "cares about people like me me"? Wake u and smell the coffee. Sanders is a fighter and people like that in a leader, especially someone who they authentically believe plans to fight for them. Here is the dirty little secret of American politics. Establishment politicians on both sides don't want to debate about class inequities because it doesn't play out in their favor to do so. Fortunately for them they almost always get to run against each other so they don't have to. They scare away true economic populists by denying them funding and air time. And they have trained most everyone to act like "liberal" is a dirty word that makes candidates uncomfortable to be associated with.
None of that crap works with Bernie Sanders. When they attack Bernie on economics he fights back and forces them to defend the status quo if they can. And they can't. Sanders doesn't need establishment money, and as our candidate for President they can't keep him from being heard. It's not the backing of traditional progressive voters who time and time again allow Bernie Sanders to outperform Hillary Clinton in match ups against Republicans. It is ordinary Americans who are fed up with being taken for granted and screwed.