If things swing a bit our way in Arizona we may be on track with delegates...

By the way, your message of hopelessness, inevitability and compliance is not working.

complicated. We could count it on our fingers by reusing them. Bernie came into Tuesday behind and needed to a certain number of delegates to start closing that gap. Unfortunately,

Hillary is even ahead in the popular vote count, Bernie farther behind.
Hillary will win around 20 more delegates than Bernie tonight, Bernie farther behind.

Bottom line is that Bernie won large in two small states and lost large in a more important one, so the gap has now opened wider. Bernie is even farther behind in both the popular vote and the delegate count after tonight. Yes, he can still theoretically win.

Did you get that backwards? HuffingtonPost has Bernie ahead by 16 delegates, with 13 still un-awarded. Even if we assume that Hillary gets all of them (seems unlikely), Bernie will still be ahead by 3. More likely that he will pick up more delegates, though. Maybe you made a typo? Did you mean to say that "Bernie will win around 20 more delegates than Bernie tonight, Bernie gaining on Hillary"?

Oh, maybe you're including super delegates. Which is silly. And Bernie's still ahead by 9 if you count super delegates. Which you shouldn't.

...and, as for the 300+ pledged delegate difference, Sanders is gaining, not losing, as of tonight, and there is still a HUGE number of delegates to be decided, and the skies get even bluer from here on.

It is still a contest. And Sanders is still in this contest. Is it going to be difficult for Sanders to win it? It is. But IT IS NOT OVER!

At all, NY, PA, MD, DE, NJ are all heavily for Clinton. Even if she wins marginally its a HUGE win for her. Likewise if Bernie wins marginally its a big loss for him.

And that includes me.

I'm not counting super-delegates. I don't know what the OP is counting.

http://www.nytimes.com/elections/results

Look for March 22 results. I think I showed you this on another thread -- but anyway.

You may remember that I posted this elsewhere.

I'll reply there.

And the reason most likely is that Utah is still at 26% reporting and AZ is 91% reporting (amidst much confusion and warnings by Bernie's campaign manager). All the delegates have not yet been allotted.

I explain it below. If the % of the win more or less dictates the number of delegates, it HAS to be about a 15 net gain in delegates for Sanders, for the three states. And if it isn't, I'd sure like to know the reason why.

they got away with the same stunts in Florida, and they'll do it again if given any slack at all!

doesn't actually mean that there is anything illegal going on. Or is the conspiracy against Sanders so big that even Sanders is in on it?

I believe Hillary's win number won't be as high as it was prematurely reported which will also affect the Arizona delegate allocation in Bernie's favor.

I wonder what that's about. (That discrepancy occurred earlier, too.)

There were other candidates on the ballot besides Clinton and Sanders that received votes.

on the ballot that might account for the missing 2.5% - 3% differences.


http://www.azsos.gov/elections/voting-election/election-information/prespref2016dem

I don't know how they allot pledged delegates in these states--if it's done with funny math or whatever. (I recall designated people from caucuses in Iowa then went to conventions, etc., and apparently the math can change in that process. Didn't we get a report that some Clinton delegates didn't show up at the convention--something like that?)

What I did was a strict percentage of vote = so many delegates (rounding off numbers where needed). It may not be exact but it's close.

Sanders won the night by taking 2 of the 3 states by huge margins, which made up for his losses in AZ, giving him a net gain in delegates.

Clinton had a net loss of delegates for the night and lost 2 of 3 states.

These should be the headlines tomorrow. Ha-ha-ha-ha.

Of course, the good news for Sanders comes in too late for tomorrow's headlines, and probably wouldn't be reported correctly anyway.

AZ: The numbers may change, likely in favor of Sanders. Sanders' campaign manager announced tonight that there is "something wrong with the numbers" in AZ. He said to wait til morning for the final result. The result probably won't change Clinton's win of the state but may give Sanders a higher % and a few more delegates.

There were many weird things happening in AZ. Incredibly long lines. Not enough polling stations. This probably favored Clinton (the elderly do early mail in votes; the young, workers and others vote last minute and line up at the polls). The polling station deficit was huge and it wasn't normal. Also, there were reports of many new voters being denied the right to vote because the state (i.e., a private corporation) fucked up their registrations. (Had them registered as Republicans, when they were not, etc.) So all this needs to be sorted out before AZ is final. But there were no such problems (that I know about) in Utah and Idaho.

I am a delegate for Bernie in Iowa.

The night of the Iowa Caucuses we count and allot delegates to each candidate. The delegates chosen that night go on to the County Convention.

I attended the county convention nearly two weeks ago. Hillary won my county by 60 delegates--the night of the caucus. However, after the initial count at county convention--Bernie was ahead in my county. It was mind blowing. I don't have the numbers in front of me, but if I'm remembering correctly 73 of Hillary's delegates didn't bother to show up.

So, I can definitely attest to that.

This was my county convention. There are 99 other counties in Iowa, so 99 other conventions.

The delegates were again apportioned down. Clinton has 702 in Iowa now. Bernie 700. Clinton won the Iowa caucus by .2. After County Convention, her lead is now .18. So Bernie gained slightly--if my math is correct.

Next step--District Convention in late April. I'll be there as a Bernie delegate.

Thanks so much for your reports on Iowa. .18, eh? Good lesson for folks who think their vote doesn't matter.

51/Clinton

55/ Sanders

I don't know what you mean. What was "just plus 4"? What are these numbers--51 and 55?

This OP is projecting what it will look like once it it all done. Overall, it looks like a good night for Sanders though. This will build some much needed momentum going into Washington.

They don't add up, do they? (See right-hand column at NYT: 51 + 57 = 108. Now look at top crossbar showing state delegate #'s: 75 + 23 + 33 = 131. 23 delegates are yet to be awarded.)

Sanders will end up with about 15 more delegates than Clinton got from these 3 states.

that can't be true--that he's up by only 6 delegates. It must be that all the delegates are not yet allotted. I don't know the process for this in these states. But generally speaking, with Sanders contesting for 56 delegates in Idaho and Utah, and winning Idaho by 78% and Utah by 77%, and contesting for 75 delegates in AZ, and winning 40% of the vote, the net gain for Sanders MUST be about 15 delegates.

The reason (for 6) may be that Utah (though a NYT projected Sanders win) is still reporting only 26% of the votes, and AZ is still only showing 91% reporting--and is in some confusion as well, due to polling place and other fuckups--so the delegates have not been fully allotted.

(and about time!)

Can "shrink" now until June, unless Sanders gets blowout wins in every single remaining state it won't matter.

I heard that..... it was long before ID and UT were ready to close.

He might get another delegate from that.

Also, Clinton just lost another pt. in AZ. She's now 58%. (My calculation above was based on her getting 60%.) And Sanders went up from 39% to 40%. She lost half a delegate.

Check RCP. Sanders is ahead by 6 delegates. He has a total of 57 and Hillary has 51. Not a final count yet, but it won't change by much.

All right, I'll do it for you.

The TOTAL delegates for the 3 states is 131. The total delegates reported as assigned is 108. The difference is 23! 23 delegates have not yet been awarded!

If the %'s of votes hold up--and they ARE holding up (except that Sanders is edging ahead a bit, as reports come in)-- Sanders will end up with a net gain of about 15 delegates.

Sanders won 2 of 3 states and beat Clinton on the delegate count. THAT is the story of March 22. And anything you read or hear to the contrary tomorrow morning, brought to you by the Corrupt Media or by Clintonbots is BULLSHIT.

It's aggressive and rude.

As for the total count, Sanders ended the night 16 delegates ahead of Hillary.

This will get Sanders another delegate for sure.

And the NYT site is clearly wrong on the delegate count. Not all the delegates have been allotted and NOT ALL HAVE BEEN INCLUDED IN THE RIGHT-HAND (ALLOTTED) COLUMN. It is 23 delegates short of the total for the 3 states.

http://www.nytimes.com/elections/results

based on the numbers in the op.

I think he will have a good streak. Had to take GDP out of the trash to witness this.

I turned them on this morning and first thing I heard was about Hillary's big win in AZ and then the ONCE AGAIN showed the delegate count that includes super delegates. I'm so done with CNN. Is there no unbiased media source out there?

so at of the day he lost ground even more....these "landslides" that net a few delegates won't help him catch hillary....its still the MATH

The slope of the line showing Bernie's gain in delegates puts him over the amount needed for the nomination in a little over a year.

Team Sanders kicked a field goal.

As someone who tilts toward HRC, congratulation to Bernie! A good night indeed.
I would never begrudge him a victory he deserves. Neither should any of HRC's supporters.
Look at the bright side: the media attention won't go all to Trump and the R race.

Bernie will catch up by mid-2017.

Oh wait.

According to the 538, she surpassed her target in AZ (46/34), but she didn't in ID (5/9) and UT (6/14). Nevertheless, she's still ahead by 285 pledged delegates.

And she hit that according to the info I saw.

Quite an accomplishment.

We're alive and well. Smug Hillary might have to waddle back to her mountain of cash yet.

Adding that they're holding on to big leads.


Anymore, the truth just doesn't matter, it's all spin.

So...

Thanks for the thread, Peace Patriot.