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DLnyc

(2,479 posts)
Wed Mar 23, 2016, 03:25 AM Mar 2016

My current guesses on delegates tonight and percent needed going forward for each candidate

First a caveat: all these numbers are fluid, particularly with people in AZ still voting and, even when we're not right in the middle of a night's voting process, it's hard to determine the exact number of delegates allocated. But based on:

Pledged delegates only (assuming un-pledged can change, as they have in other years)
Numbers from RCP tonight before any primary results came in gave
HC 1119 and BS 813 pledged delegates.

A reasonable guess for tonight's delegates might be Green Papers numbers for AZ, UT, and ID (but note these numbers can and probably will change over the next few days):

..........HC.....BS
AZ......45.....30
UT.......8.....25
ID.......5.....18
----------------
Total...58....73 (so maybe Bernie reduces Hillary's lead by 15 or so)

new totals HC 1119 + 58 = 1175
..............BC 813 + 73 = 886

So the percent-needed, under these assumptions, gives:

Hillary: 1175 pledged, so 2026 - 1175 = 851 to go
Bernie: 886 pledged, so 2026 - 886 = 1140 to go

since there are 4051 - (1175 + 886) = 1990 pledged left to be allocated,

Hillary needs 851/1990 = 42.8% of the remaining pledged delegates
Bernie needs 1140/1990 = 57.3% of the remaining pledged delegates

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