2016 Postmortem

Recursion

(56,582 posts) Wed Mar 23, 2016, 03:55 AM Mar 2016

Today until April 9th is Sanders's do or die time

He had a very impressive day today.

Saturday is Alaska (20 delegates), Hawaii (34 delegates), and Washington (118 delegates). These should probably be as lopsided as his ID or UT wins (if they're not, he's in huge trouble). (Side point: I don't actually know anything about the HI electorate; it's possible this will look more like American Samoa or Guam; that would also be a stumbling block for Sanders -- side side point, there's been essentially no polling specific to Asian Americans, which is a shame.)

Two Tuesdays later is Wisconsin (96 delegates). The next Saturday is Wyoming (18 delegates).

Wyoming AFAIK is a foregone conclusion (think Idaho). WI is the huge question: will it be like MI, MN, or OH?

At any rate, between now and New York there are 286 delegates up for grabs. If Sanders can maintain the kinds of leads he has had in the west and Clinton has had in the south, things will be much, much closer going into New York. And he absolutely has to do that, or there's literally no way forward.

23 replies

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Today until April 9th is Sanders's do or die time (Original Post) Recursion Mar 2016 OP

Nothing to say about the voter suppression against Democrats in AZ? pantsonfire Mar 2016 #1

He will win AK bravenak Mar 2016 #2

I think he'll narrow the margin... pantsonfire Mar 2016 #3

No way he wins AZ. bravenak Mar 2016 #5

Pretty sure Bravenak was talking about Alaska (nt) Recursion Mar 2016 #8

It's late, I thought he meant AZ not AK, he will win AK pantsonfire Mar 2016 #10

"She", btw Recursion Mar 2016 #11

Thanks for the correction, best to refer to everyone as "they" otherwise clear. pantsonfire Mar 2016 #17

You're right but I just want to add this Cheese Sandwich Mar 2016 #4

Agreed: if he has the money to campaign there's no reason he should stop (nt) Recursion Mar 2016 #6

^^This is a big point!^^ ebayfool Mar 2016 #7

There is one point both sides can agree: his spirited campaign is a net positive for the Democrats Hereiam2005 Mar 2016 #22

WI has an open primary, which could be favorable to Sanders. (nt) pat_k Mar 2016 #9

I expect he'll win it, the question is by what kind of margin. jfern Mar 2016 #12

As large as possible, but regardless of the cummulative... pat_k Mar 2016 #23

Bernie Sanders stands a good chance of beating the points spread GreydeeThos Mar 2016 #13

He'll blow Clinton out by his needed margin until NY geek tragedy Mar 2016 #14

NY is probably the end, yeah (nt) Recursion Mar 2016 #16

April 19, btw nt geek tragedy Mar 2016 #20

He netted about 10 delegates. Sure, if you're grading on a curve, maybe that's impressive. DanTex Mar 2016 #15

It's too bad the NY primary is closed, leaving out independents... pantsonfire Mar 2016 #19

I thought he had to win every state by over 60% to get the nom? He lost Arizona. It's over. nt BreakfastClub Mar 2016 #18

If you add up last nights unofficial results... pantsonfire Mar 2016 #21

pantsonfire

(1,306 posts)

1. Nothing to say about the voter suppression against Democrats in AZ?

Reply to Recursion (Original post)

Wed Mar 23, 2016, 03:58 AM

Mar 2016

Great post, he did have a very impressive day, just thought "do or die time", taking a serious tone, you'd at least mention the alleged "voter suppression" in AZ.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/12511557013

bravenak

(34,648 posts)

2. He will win AK

Reply to Recursion (Original post)

Wed Mar 23, 2016, 04:01 AM

Mar 2016

pantsonfire

(1,306 posts)

3. I think he'll narrow the margin...

Reply to bravenak (Reply #2)

Wed Mar 23, 2016, 04:03 AM

Mar 2016

you think he'll win Arizona?

bravenak

(34,648 posts)

5. No way he wins AZ.

Reply to pantsonfire (Reply #3)

Wed Mar 23, 2016, 04:16 AM

Mar 2016

This thing is pretty much done.

Recursion

(56,582 posts)

8. Pretty sure Bravenak was talking about Alaska (nt)

Reply to pantsonfire (Reply #3)

Wed Mar 23, 2016, 04:20 AM

Mar 2016

pantsonfire

(1,306 posts)

10. It's late, I thought he meant AZ not AK, he will win AK

Reply to Recursion (Reply #8)

Wed Mar 23, 2016, 05:30 AM

Mar 2016

Recursion

(56,582 posts)

11. "She", btw

Reply to pantsonfire (Reply #10)

Wed Mar 23, 2016, 05:35 AM

Mar 2016

(Not a criticism; just pointing out.) Get some sleep; everything looks clearer in the morning.

pantsonfire

(1,306 posts)

17. Thanks for the correction, best to refer to everyone as "they" otherwise clear.

Reply to Recursion (Reply #11)

Wed Mar 23, 2016, 07:50 AM

Mar 2016

Cheese Sandwich

(9,086 posts)

4. You're right but I just want to add this

Reply to Recursion (Original post)

Wed Mar 23, 2016, 04:12 AM

Mar 2016

Even if he gets eliminated to the point where he has no realistic path to win the nomination, he still has no reason to stop campaigning. His campaign is a show of strength for the progressive left wing of US politics. I don't know what the impact of that is but it definitely shows we're out here in large numbers.

Recursion

(56,582 posts)

6. Agreed: if he has the money to campaign there's no reason he should stop (nt)

Reply to Cheese Sandwich (Reply #4)

Wed Mar 23, 2016, 04:16 AM

Mar 2016

ebayfool

(3,411 posts)

7. ^^This is a big point!^^

Reply to Cheese Sandwich (Reply #4)

Wed Mar 23, 2016, 04:18 AM

Mar 2016

The party needs to recognize if it is to have a shot in hell of keeping it together! TY for adding that.

And Clinton didn't call it off til June with Obama.

Hereiam2005

(23 posts)

22. There is one point both sides can agree: his spirited campaign is a net positive for the Democrats

Reply to Cheese Sandwich (Reply #4)

Wed Mar 23, 2016, 07:59 AM

Mar 2016

In November, in the age of Trump. Not least for the media coverage.

pat_k

(9,313 posts)

9. WI has an open primary, which could be favorable to Sanders. (nt)

Reply to Recursion (Original post)

Wed Mar 23, 2016, 04:35 AM

Mar 2016

jfern

(5,204 posts)

12. I expect he'll win it, the question is by what kind of margin.

Reply to pat_k (Reply #9)

Wed Mar 23, 2016, 05:41 AM

Mar 2016

pat_k

(9,313 posts)

23. As large as possible, but regardless of the cummulative...

Reply to jfern (Reply #12)

Wed Mar 23, 2016, 04:59 PM

Mar 2016

...delegate numbers, I think he should stay in through the convention.

The goal is to get him to the White House, but his campaign is about much more than that:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/12511507143

GreydeeThos

(958 posts)

13. Bernie Sanders stands a good chance of beating the points spread

Reply to Recursion (Original post)

Wed Mar 23, 2016, 06:34 AM

Mar 2016

At his current rate of increase in delegate count over Hillary Clinton, he should clinch the nomination some time in the year 2025.

geek tragedy

(68,868 posts)

14. He'll blow Clinton out by his needed margin until NY

Reply to Recursion (Original post)

Wed Mar 23, 2016, 07:14 AM

Mar 2016

and then the party ends

Recursion

(56,582 posts)

16. NY is probably the end, yeah (nt)

Reply to geek tragedy (Reply #14)

Wed Mar 23, 2016, 07:42 AM

Mar 2016

geek tragedy

(68,868 posts)

20. April 19, btw nt

Reply to Recursion (Reply #16)

Wed Mar 23, 2016, 07:56 AM

Mar 2016

DanTex

(20,709 posts)

15. He netted about 10 delegates. Sure, if you're grading on a curve, maybe that's impressive.

Reply to Recursion (Original post)

Wed Mar 23, 2016, 07:19 AM

Mar 2016

But Arizona was supposed to be part of his big comeback. He's now got 5 states left before NY, and only two of them, WA and WI, have substantial delegate counts.

WA will probably be his biggest win this whole calendar. The demographics favor Bernie, and it's a caucus, which also favors Bernie. He'll have a big day on Saturday. But he's down by 300. Hillary can lose 100 delegates in the next 5 contests and still have a huge lead.

pantsonfire

(1,306 posts)

19. It's too bad the NY primary is closed, leaving out independents...

Reply to DanTex (Reply #15)

Wed Mar 23, 2016, 07:54 AM

Mar 2016

Hopefully she can win over independents if Bernie doesn't make a comeback.

Thankfully, CA is a closed modified primary, meaning it's an open primary for Democrats (that bodes well sine 70% of independents generally vote for him in every primary).

BreakfastClub

(765 posts)

18. I thought he had to win every state by over 60% to get the nom? He lost Arizona. It's over. nt

Reply to Recursion (Original post)

Wed Mar 23, 2016, 07:52 AM

Mar 2016

pantsonfire

(1,306 posts)

21. If you add up last nights unofficial results...

Reply to BreakfastClub (Reply #18)

Wed Mar 23, 2016, 07:56 AM

Mar 2016

Arizona 40%
Utah 80%
Idaho 80%

That's 66.6%

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