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Billsmile

(404 posts)
Wed Mar 23, 2016, 10:52 AM Mar 2016

Bernie Is Winning the Primary Race, and I’ll Prove It to You

Nobody cares how well a politician does at the ballot box when he or she is running for an office unopposed. What matters is how a politician performs in contested primaries and general elections, as when it really matters — like it will, for instance, this November — you can be certain of a contested election.

With that said, let’s make an important observation: Bernie Sanders has tied or beaten Hillary Clinton in a majority of the actively contested votes this election season.


You doubt it? Okay, let me explain.


http://www.huffingtonpost.com/seth-abramson/sanders-currently-winning-democratic-primary-race-ill-prove-to-you_b_9528076.html
18 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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k8conant

(3,030 posts)
1. NB in this article:
Wed Mar 23, 2016, 11:02 AM
Mar 2016
"The Hillary camp, and Hillary supporters, are justly excited about how their candidate is performing in the delegate horse-race. The problem is that that excitement is quickly becoming the sort of arrogance that will in fact endanger Hillary’s candidacy for President. Both she and her team — including all her millions of supporters — should consider the fact that Hillary does not, outside the deep-red Deep South, do particularly well among voters when they’re given any other reasonable alternative. "


(emphasis mine)
 

geek tragedy

(68,868 posts)
4. Voters in Ohio, Arizona, Illinois, Missouri, Massachusetts, and Arizona
Wed Mar 23, 2016, 11:05 AM
Mar 2016

may disagree with that.

Also, Obama won Florida and Virginia twice. Why did Sanders perform so miserably there?

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,706 posts)
8. FIXED
Wed Mar 23, 2016, 11:22 AM
Mar 2016

"The Sanders camp, and Sanders supporters, are justly excited about how their candidate is performing in homogeneous and sparsely populated states. The problem is that that excitement is quickly becoming the sort of arrogance that will in fact endanger Sanders' quest to be taken seriously. . Both he and his team — including all his millions of supporters — should consider the fact that Bernie does not, outside of homogeneous and sparsely populated states, do particularly well among voters when they’re given any other reasonable alternative. "

 

geek tragedy

(68,868 posts)
6. Clinton will be racking up some very big victories at the end of April.
Wed Mar 23, 2016, 11:14 AM
Mar 2016

This primary will be effectively OVER before May Day.

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,706 posts)
7. The English professor should leave Political Science to Political Science professors
Wed Mar 23, 2016, 11:18 AM
Mar 2016

The English professor should leave Political Science to Political Science professors and Political Science professors should leave English to English professors. That's why when my lap top isn't working I don't take it to the tire store.

The reason Clinton overperforms in early voting is because her supporters skew older and are more likely to take advantage of early voting and vote at their leisure and avoid long lines. Any Political Science professor would tell you that.

Baobab

(4,667 posts)
9. Were early votes reported last rather than first, Arizona as of 2:45 AM ET would have been considere
Wed Mar 23, 2016, 11:23 AM
Mar 2016

From :
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/seth-abramson/sanders-currently-winning-democratic-primary-race-ill-prove-to-you_b_9528076.html

"Were early votes reported last rather than first, Arizona as of 2:45 AM ET would have been considered not only too close to call but a genuine nail-biter. In fact, only 400 or so Election Day votes were separating the two Democratic candidates at that point — though the momentum with each new vote counted was quite clearly in Sanders’ favor."

OMG....

This changes everything.

This article is a must-read.

Tarc

(10,472 posts)
10. Sanders can only win states that meet at least one of two criteria
Wed Mar 23, 2016, 11:28 AM
Mar 2016

*mostly white
*open primary/caucus

Yavin4

(35,357 posts)
18. So, if you eliminate entire states, voting blocs, early voting, etc.
Wed Mar 23, 2016, 01:36 PM
Mar 2016

Then, yes, Bernie is winning. That's like saying if you take away the fact that Scarlett Johanson doesn't know who I am, has never met me, and will never meet me, then I'm in a relationship with her.

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