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paulthompson

(2,398 posts)
Wed Mar 23, 2016, 11:08 AM Mar 2016

Who was more hurt by vote suppression in Arizona, Clinton or Sanders?

I just saw something interesting in a Huffington Post article, and thought it deserves a thread of its own.

Clearly, there was a lot of voter suppression in Arizona yesterday. In the largest county by far (Maricopa County, where Phoenix is), there were 300,000 voters and 200 polling places in the 2012 primary, compared to 800,000 voters at 60 polling places in 2016. As a result, there were very long lines, with some people not getting to vote until after midnight! Naturally, many people gave up without voting. Maricopa County has 4 million out of the 7 million people in Arizona.

I don't blame the Clinton campaign for this. Arizona is generally run by the Republicans, and Republicans benefit from reducing the number of people voting, since higher turnout almost always benefits the Democrats more. And the politicians who drastically reduced the number of polling places in Maricopa County were Republicans.

That said, which Democratic presidential candidate lost more votes due to this?

Here's the interesting bit from the Huffington Post article:

"As of the writing of this essay (2:45 AM ET), Sanders was leading Clinton in Election Day voting in Arizona 50.2% to 49.8%, with just under 75,000 votes (about 17.3% of all Election Day votes) counted."

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/seth-abramson/sanders-currently-winning-democratic-primary-race-ill-prove-to-you_b_9528076.html

Generally speaking, Clinton does much better with early voting compared to Sanders, often by 4 to 1 or 5 to 1. Partly that's because a lot of senior citizens vote early, and they favor Clinton overwhelmingly, and partly because Sanders tends to have late surges in popularity as voters get to know him better. Look at Utah or Idaho, where Sanders beat the polls by over 50 points. Or Illinois, where Sanders lost by two points after being down in the polls by 40 points a week earlier. Even in Arizona, the final result so far has Sanders down 18 points, whereas the polls had him down by 30 points.

So Sanders roughly tied Clinton on election day votes, and Clinton did much better than him with early voting. That means that Sanders couldn't have won Arizona outright, but the more people who voted on election day, the narrower Clinton's margin of victory would have been. Thus, it seems pretty clear to me that the Republican vote suppression in Arizona cost Sanders more delegates than it did Clinton.

21 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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Who was more hurt by vote suppression in Arizona, Clinton or Sanders? (Original Post) paulthompson Mar 2016 OP
A logical conclusion nt G_j Mar 2016 #1
Yes, and Sanders himself seems to have felt Hortensis Mar 2016 #11
That's true, but... paulthompson Mar 2016 #16
Whatever. As I said, Sanders asked people to Hortensis Mar 2016 #19
I agree paulthompson Mar 2016 #20
I'm guessing the GOP will depend more and more Hortensis Mar 2016 #21
Let us try to remember that any form of voter suppression randr Mar 2016 #2
You have to be registered before the day you vote. I think at least a month before. So if Sanders upaloopa Mar 2016 #3
I believe this reality will begin to dawn... Surya Gayatri Mar 2016 #5
reply paulthompson Mar 2016 #6
I dont know early voting statistics Fresh_Start Mar 2016 #4
The Democrats in Arizona. Major Hogwash Mar 2016 #7
The election was for Republicans and Greens too DesertRat Mar 2016 #9
Well, here are some stats: KPN Mar 2016 #8
We don't know lmbradford Mar 2016 #10
The Justice Dept should investigate it to get to the bottom of it at least. KPN Mar 2016 #12
The Clinton campaign DesertRat Mar 2016 #13
That may be, but that raises the bar unfairly in the bigger picture Tom Rinaldo Mar 2016 #17
Interesting article. KPN Mar 2016 #14
The AZ primary was obviously rigged to reflect only early voting results. NorthCarolina Mar 2016 #15
It doesn't matter Bettie Mar 2016 #18

Hortensis

(58,785 posts)
11. Yes, and Sanders himself seems to have felt
Wed Mar 23, 2016, 11:33 AM
Mar 2016

he would pick up more votes.

The other logical point that should be made, however, is that voters from heavily Hispanic and other minority districts are the major targets for the GOP's vote suppression strategies. It's reasonable to assume that Bernie would have picked up some of them, but probably less than Hillary.

paulthompson

(2,398 posts)
16. That's true, but...
Wed Mar 23, 2016, 11:47 AM
Mar 2016

That's true, but it's also true that Sanders tends to do better when voter turnout is higher in general. For instance, with his upset win in Michigan, the voter turnout was higher than expected.

Also, Sanders does significantly better with poorer voters than Clinton in general (except in Ohio, for some strange reason), and poorer voters are the ones who are much less able to stand in line for hours to vote.

Furthermore, from that data we know so far, Sanders appears to have done much better with election day voting than early voting. So for Clinton to have lost more due to the vote suppression, something like 80% or more of those suppressed votes would have had to have been Clinton votes (meaning they equalled or beat her early voting numbers). I don't find that plausible at all. It looks like Sanders at worst lost the Hispanic and Native American votes by 70% to 30%, so he would have had to have lost the missing votes by even more than that, with the crazy assumption that 100% of the lost votes were from those groups.

Hortensis

(58,785 posts)
19. Whatever. As I said, Sanders asked people to
Wed Mar 23, 2016, 12:17 PM
Mar 2016

stay in line as long as it took -- obviously believing he'd get a majority of their vote. As I said, a large number of the voters who were faced with driving miles to find a line to stand in before or after work were Hispanic and black.

After all, the issue is really the right to vote, right? Not whether Bernie could have picked up an extra delegate or two if more people stood around into the small, chill hours of the night.

paulthompson

(2,398 posts)
20. I agree
Wed Mar 23, 2016, 12:30 PM
Mar 2016

Voter suppression is something any American should be against. That said, Republicans are the chief instigators. They've been trying to do this in the states they control. For instance, there were lots of problems in North Carolina last week too.

I'm sure we'll see more of this in the rest of the primary season and especially in the general election.

Hortensis

(58,785 posts)
21. I'm guessing the GOP will depend more and more
Wed Mar 23, 2016, 12:39 PM
Mar 2016

on election theft by every means possible until it destroys itself. They know it'll almost certainly eventually blow up in their face, but what alternative do they have? Retire to permanent minority status and let us destroy America?

The conservative party of the future, whatever its name, will either be a minor third mostly white party or it will include millions of minority conservatives. Or the parties'll evolve away from this huge ideological split.

As of now, the strong "black block" that has formed has no interest in splitting its power between two parties, though, so even if it wanted to the white man's party couldn't integrate. It'll be very interesting to see if a large number of Hispanic/Latino voters go that route, but they do seem to view themselves differently. If they don't, who knows - Hispanic conservatives might just move in on the GOP.

In any case, for now poor GOP dears. Nothing to do but cheat.

randr

(12,409 posts)
2. Let us try to remember that any form of voter suppression
Wed Mar 23, 2016, 11:15 AM
Mar 2016

no matter who benefits or loses is an extremely un American activity. The lack of polling places is an issue that Arizona Democrats should have had their hair on fire over long ago. Complacency is the final reason for many of societies ills.

upaloopa

(11,417 posts)
3. You have to be registered before the day you vote. I think at least a month before. So if Sanders
Wed Mar 23, 2016, 11:17 AM
Mar 2016

had late surges it had to be among registered Dems to make any difference.

My guess is Sanders voters weren't registered and didn't vote early thus they were not disenfranchised but just didn't understand the rules of the game.

 

Surya Gayatri

(15,445 posts)
5. I believe this reality will begin to dawn...
Wed Mar 23, 2016, 11:20 AM
Mar 2016
"My guess is Sanders voters weren't registered and didn't vote early thus they were not disenfranchised but just didn't understand the rules of the game."

paulthompson

(2,398 posts)
6. reply
Wed Mar 23, 2016, 11:24 AM
Mar 2016

I'm sure some Sanders voters couldn't vote because they didn't register Democrat in time. And the fact that Arizona was a closed primary hurt him a lot, since he does so well with independent voters.

That said, the stats show that he exceeded the two polls in Arizona from about a week earlier, which had him about 30 points down, whereas he ended up losing by 18 points overall. And same day voting results that we know of so far had him tying Clinton, so that beats those earlier polls by 30 points. That seems pretty conclusive evidence to me that he had a big late surge in Arizona among registered Democrats.

Plus, he's had a pattern of late surges in many states, except in the South.

Fresh_Start

(11,330 posts)
4. I dont know early voting statistics
Wed Mar 23, 2016, 11:19 AM
Mar 2016

I'm not a senior citizen, I vote by mail because I don't have the time to vote in person.
I know that most working parents in my neighborhood also vote by mail.
When I have forgotten to return by ballot by mail and walk into the voting station, the vote by mail names on the voter registration was by far the majority of names. We are not a senior citizen community.

Major Hogwash

(17,656 posts)
7. The Democrats in Arizona.
Wed Mar 23, 2016, 11:24 AM
Mar 2016

Disenfranchisement is disenfranchisement no matter what state or country it occurs in.

KPN

(15,635 posts)
8. Well, here are some stats:
Wed Mar 23, 2016, 11:27 AM
Mar 2016

[link:http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/what-does-early-vote-say-about-who-will-do-well-n543641|

Was this Hillary's greatest primary election fraud yet?

Well, the link for some reason did not show up in the post when I submitted it, so I'll just try to cut and paste it manually below -- you might have to paste it into your address bar.

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/what-does-early-vote-say-about-who-will-do-well-n543641

lmbradford

(517 posts)
10. We don't know
Wed Mar 23, 2016, 11:28 AM
Mar 2016

Count the provisional ballots and we might find out who won the state. Count the votes, for heaven sake. Represent the people of AZ as the first test of your ability to be President, where you would be representing all of us.

DesertRat

(27,995 posts)
13. The Clinton campaign
Wed Mar 23, 2016, 11:35 AM
Mar 2016

Had been encouraging people FOR MONTHS to sign up for the early voting ballot option here. I'm told by my Repub. neighbors that their candidates did too. It's very easy to do and 70% of registered voters had done so.
It sounds like Bernie's people didn't do the same to GOTV.

Tom Rinaldo

(22,911 posts)
17. That may be, but that raises the bar unfairly in the bigger picture
Wed Mar 23, 2016, 11:48 AM
Mar 2016

Early voting has its pros and cons, but it is just a means toward the end of helping people exercise their right to vote. If election campaigns reach voters enough to motivate them to go out on election day and vote, that is mission accomplished. It would be blaming the victim to say that someone who stood on line for hours, but then finally had to leave without voting rather than lose their job, should have voted early instead rather than vote on election day.

 

NorthCarolina

(11,197 posts)
15. The AZ primary was obviously rigged to reflect only early voting results.
Wed Mar 23, 2016, 11:45 AM
Mar 2016

Outdated registration information supplied by the party, reducing polling locations by two thirds, forcing voters to use provisional ballots which would never again see the light of day unless it's from a trash heap.

Bettie

(16,071 posts)
18. It doesn't matter
Wed Mar 23, 2016, 11:56 AM
Mar 2016

Every last one of us should be up in arms about voter suppression.

I do not care one bit which candidate benefits from it, voter suppression is wrong and needs to be addressed before the general election.

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