2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumHillary had a good night
First, she won the overall popular vote by 252,352 to 231,758--she has gotten more votes than any other candidate running for president.
Second, While she lost the caucuses in Utah and Idaho overwhelmingly--she still won a landslide victory in Arizona, a primary state where four times as many voters participated than in Utah and Idaho (between the caucus states around 90,000 participated compared to over 400,000 in the Democratic primary in Arizona). She did this having only appeared in Arizona for one rally (Sanders barnstormed the state and held a few of his epic rallies) and being outspent by the Sanders campaign on television/radio.
Third, While Sanders deserves credit for his big wins in Idaho and Wyoming--delegates are selected proporsionally, so even in losing HRC still nabbed delegates (as did Sanders in Arizona).
Next, If HRC has problems will younger voters then it's fair to say that Sanders has a problem with minority voters. This was demonstrated in almost every primary and caucus where there has been a significant minority population up to last night. Utah & Idaho are overwhelmingly caucasian. Arizona is a much more diverse state. There is a significant Native American and Latino/Hispanic population in Arizona. In counties with the largest concentration of Native Americans and Latinos Clinton ran well above her state totals.
Finally, looking ahead, Sanders does better in open contests rather than closed--particularly caucuses. The next few weeks I believe he will win several of them, but even so HRC will continue to accumulate delegates and then in mid-April the contests swing back in her direction with several "closed" primaries in big delegate states like New York (247 delegates), Pennsylvania (189 delegates), Maryland (95 delegates), and smaller states like Connecticut (55 delegates), Delaware (21 delegates) and Rhode Island (24 delegates).
w4rma
(31,700 posts)And it will probably be 21 delegates.
book_worm
(15,951 posts)She will more than make that up with a landslide in New York.
UMTerp01
(1,048 posts)As an undecided voter and true political junkie I love it. Everyone goes to their corners. Everyone takes stats and uses them in their favor to suit their talking point. Both sides make good and compelling arguments for their candidate though. Stats can be looked at in a multitude of ways. Why are young people rejecting Hillary Clinton? Its a problem. Why are minorities, particularly Blacks rejecting Sanders? Its a problem. Ultimately, both have been substantive and in the end for me it will come down to the voice on my left telling me that Hillary is the pragmatic choice but more of the same business as usual candidate, or the voice on my right that is telling me that Bernie Sanders represents the social liberal in me who thinks the system needs to be blown up.
Its a hard argument. I know some find it hard to believe that there are some of us who are undecided but we truly are. Sanders needs to absolutely stay in this campaign and continue driving enthusiasm and see how much he can cut into Hillary's delegate lead. Hillary needs to continue verbalizing her message and if she is the nominee and wins in November we have to make sure to hold her feet to the fire.