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NuclearDem

(16,184 posts)
Wed Mar 23, 2016, 07:05 PM Mar 2016

Sorry, Bernie supporters. Your candidate is not ‘currently winning the Democratic primary race’

Denial is powerful. The extent to which the human mind can conjure up scenarios besides the one we don't want to see is impressive, the result of some weird psychological glitch that probably evolved as a way of allowing us to keep our sanity. I don't know; I'm not an evolutionary psychologist.

What I am is a dude who spends a lot of time looking at poll numbers, and particularly poll numbers related to the 2016 nomination contests. I am the author of various articles assessing the chances of Sen. Bernie Sanders in the Democratic iteration thereof; those articles come to the conclusion that Hillary Clinton is very, very likely to be the party's nominee. It's a simple function of math. Sanders needs to win a lot of states with a lot of delegates by a lot of points -- something that he's so far shown no ability to do. He needs to win about three-quarters of the remaining delegates. Unless deusemerges from the machina, he will not.

But that's me looking at things objectively. I suspect that Seth Abramson -- a University of New Hampshire English professor and author of "Bernie Sanders Is Currently Winning the Democratic Primary Race, and I’ll Prove It to You" -- is not considering the race from the same space.

Abramson's "proof" consists of the following argument. Actually, Bernie Sanders has more support from Democrats. It's just that no one knows who he is. So Hillary Clinton banks a lot of early votes. But then they hear about Sanders and prefer him, and that's why voting on Election Day favors Sanders. So, really, Sanders is preferred.

The only problem with this is all of the parts.


https://www.washingtonpost.com/amphtml/news/the-fix/wp/2016/03/23/sorry-bernie-supporters-your-candidate-is-not-currently-winning-the-democratic-primary-race/
30 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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Sorry, Bernie supporters. Your candidate is not ‘currently winning the Democratic primary race’ (Original Post) NuclearDem Mar 2016 OP
I haven't read this posts and don't intend to. I have noticed on DU that the partisans spend ladjf Mar 2016 #1
The article is a counterpoint to one posted here. NuclearDem Mar 2016 #2
Sorry. I think this is the second time I've misunderstood one of your posts. nt ladjf Mar 2016 #3
No big deal, it happens. NuclearDem Mar 2016 #4
So we should only point encouraging messages? brooklynite Mar 2016 #9
The smug "sorry" is not the OP's invention. It comes from the WaPo. Orsino Mar 2016 #22
In a make-belief land full of freebies cosmicone Mar 2016 #5
Come with me ... NurseJackie Mar 2016 #21
Let them work through the stages CorkySt.Clair Mar 2016 #6
Ah a reality piece.. thank you, ND! Cha Mar 2016 #7
Denial is powerful. workinclasszero Mar 2016 #8
This point in the primary reminds me of the end of the last election when unskewed polls came out. bravenak Mar 2016 #10
Actually it's slightly worse forjusticethunders Mar 2016 #23
I feel bad for them bravenak Mar 2016 #24
Math is a corporatist plot BainsBane Mar 2016 #11
probabilities are not facts ibegurpard Mar 2016 #15
Let's review, shall we? BainsBane Mar 2016 #16
again and slowwwwwly ibegurpard Mar 2016 #17
I cite numbers BainsBane Mar 2016 #25
kick Alfresco Mar 2016 #12
K & R Scurrilous Mar 2016 #13
Oligarchs! CorkySt.Clair Mar 2016 #14
No he's not ibegurpard Mar 2016 #18
Hillary already has Bernie in her rear view mirror. oasis Mar 2016 #19
"Bernie Sanders Wins the Utah Caucus and Reignites His Campaign" Ghost in the Machine Mar 2016 #20
good post. wanted to get that said before the "lock". this Post is NOT permissable! Bill USA Mar 2016 #26
How does one "look at things objectively" dchill Mar 2016 #27
You are welcome to your opinion. I hope that you allow me the same privilege. nt ladjf Mar 2016 #28
The controversy of numbers PATRICK Mar 2016 #29
Bernie still has a chance of becoming her V.P. dubyadiprecession Mar 2016 #30

ladjf

(17,320 posts)
1. I haven't read this posts and don't intend to. I have noticed on DU that the partisans spend
Wed Mar 23, 2016, 07:11 PM
Mar 2016

an enormous amount of energy trying to discourage the supporters of the competition. I find it annoying.
I would rather they just say why they support their favorite and what they don't like about yours.

But, "you are just in lala land if you think that your candidate has a chance of winning".

 

NuclearDem

(16,184 posts)
2. The article is a counterpoint to one posted here.
Wed Mar 23, 2016, 07:13 PM
Mar 2016

It's not intended to discourage, but to point out what the other article got wrong.

Orsino

(37,428 posts)
22. The smug "sorry" is not the OP's invention. It comes from the WaPo.
Thu Mar 24, 2016, 09:30 AM
Mar 2016

But was indeed posted here.

BainsBane

(53,003 posts)
11. Math is a corporatist plot
Wed Mar 23, 2016, 09:15 PM
Mar 2016

Goldman Sachs is an invest bank. Banks count money. Counting is math; therefore math is a corporatist ruse. Get your facts straight.

ibegurpard

(16,685 posts)
15. probabilities are not facts
Thu Mar 24, 2016, 01:31 AM
Mar 2016

Simple counting shows Hillary has a long way to go before she clears the delegate threshold needed. THAT is a fact.

BainsBane

(53,003 posts)
16. Let's review, shall we?
Thu Mar 24, 2016, 01:44 AM
Mar 2016

Earned delegates

HRC 1223
BS 920
sum +303 for HRC

Total Delegates

HRC 1690
BS 946

+744 for HRC

2383 needed for nomination

653 for HRC to win nomination. 1437 for BS to win nomination

2129 remaining delegates. HRC needs 30.6% of the remaining delegates for nomination. BS needs 67.4%

It should be obvious which of those two equate to "a long way to go."


ibegurpard

(16,685 posts)
17. again and slowwwwwly
Thu Mar 24, 2016, 01:54 AM
Mar 2016

Since you seem to have a problem with the concept: a probability is not a fact.

BainsBane

(53,003 posts)
25. I cite numbers
Thu Mar 24, 2016, 07:04 PM
Mar 2016

and you treat me as though I'm stupid for not buying into your faith based worldview. You don't even want to deal with the numbers or evidence of any kind. That's your problem. You are entitled to believe anything you want, but you do not have a right to insist enforce that disassociation from reality and evidence on the rest of us.

I responded to a point that "Hillary has a long way to go" to win the nomination. The numbers show that "long way" is far greater for Sanders than Clinton. That is an empirically verified fact. No amounts of insults on your part will change that. Perhaps if Bernie supporters devoted a fraction of the time to getting out the vote that they do to making rude remarks online, Sanders might be in a stronger position?

ibegurpard

(16,685 posts)
18. No he's not
Thu Mar 24, 2016, 01:56 AM
Mar 2016

And likely won't.
However Hillary has not crossed the delegate threshold needed to win and likely won't for some time yet.
So the race will continue. As it should.

Ghost in the Machine

(14,912 posts)
20. "Bernie Sanders Wins the Utah Caucus and Reignites His Campaign"
Thu Mar 24, 2016, 07:17 AM
Mar 2016
Bernie Sanders Wins the Utah Caucus and Reignites His Campaign

The Utah caucuses were packed tonight, and an overwhelming majority of caucus-goers picked Bernie Sanders.

With 241 of 2,235 precincts reporting, the Associated Press projects Bernie Sanders as the winner of the Democratic caucus in one of the most conservative state in the country by a 75-24 margin over Hillary Clinton. {emphasis mine}

http://usuncut.com/politics/bernie-sanders-wins-utah/


The Media Blackout of Sanders is starting to get colored in some as time goes by. We'll see...

Peace,

Ghost

PATRICK

(12,227 posts)
29. The controversy of numbers
Thu Mar 24, 2016, 07:35 PM
Mar 2016

doesn't impress me as the simpler math. Add up all the powerful(no not all of them are evil) advantages and resources, experience and committments and minus the challenge. The challenge being, the set negatives, frontrunner centrism and donor influence and the lack of positives(wide enthusiasm, progressive, traditional Dem platform). By traditional, I mean FDR pointing forward with his new bill of rights. Call me old fashioned, but I guess my age class was supposed to be in the bag for safety, centrism and gratitude to the Clintons.

The ambivalence is trying to set in who is better or worse or who will do better or worse in the election and governance. The divide is there, but the really unfortunate thing is relying on a default election such as LBJ had over Goldwater, something Hillary knows about. The math does not support anything less. When they were nervous about Rubio they went after him. That loser and terrible politician.
I don't like the math of negativity which is what barely sustains the frontrunner against a lone, unfunded, media suppressed and rather polite genuine idealist. That can transform almost in minutes to a loss in the fall.

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