Welcome to DU! The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards. Join the community: Create a free account Support DU (and get rid of ads!): Become a Star Member Latest Breaking News General Discussion The DU Lounge All Forums Issue Forums Culture Forums Alliance Forums Region Forums Support Forums Help & Search

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,710 posts)
Wed Mar 23, 2016, 07:32 PM Mar 2016

Wisconsin Shock Poll- Clinton 50% Sanders 44%







In the Democratic primary, Clinton leads Sanders by 6 points, 50% to 44%, with 5% undecided.
Wisconsin’s demographics bode well for Sanders, who has enjoyed his strongest wins in states with a
low percentage of minorities and lopsided support for him among young voters. He leads Clinton 67%
to 29% in the 18-34 age group and ties her at 48% among voters 35-54. As in other primaries
Emerson College has polled, he trails her by large margins with older voters: 63% to 31% (ages 55-
74) and 73% to 19% (ages 75 and up). Less than 10% of the state’s Democratic voters are African
American or Latino, groups that have supported Clinton very heavily in other states.


http://media.wix.com/ugd/3bebb2_73d4ad9247704c9488a764acae6f7767.pdf
42 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
Wisconsin Shock Poll- Clinton 50% Sanders 44% (Original Post) DemocratSinceBirth Mar 2016 OP
Landline only poll and Clinton only up +6? Barack_America Mar 2016 #1
Yeah, Bernie needs to win 75-25 to make up ground. DemocratSinceBirth Mar 2016 #3
Given landline polls have underestimated him by about 35 points... Barack_America Mar 2016 #4
Actually it was a landline poll that nailed Nevada when nobody could figure out what was going on DemocratSinceBirth Mar 2016 #5
More recently. UT, Sanders +8. Barack_America Mar 2016 #7
Bernie Sanders can be the president of Utah. DemocratSinceBirth Mar 2016 #8
Ouch! woolldog Mar 2016 #25
I feel a bit bad but my interlocutor struck first. DemocratSinceBirth Mar 2016 #34
You candidate angrychair Mar 2016 #32
I think DSB is the same one who told me to "book it" when... Ned_Devine Mar 2016 #26
That was just a poll of Democrats oberliner Mar 2016 #40
Gravis of all polls got Nevada correct, 6 points. Dawson Leery Mar 2016 #31
Not gonna happen workinclasszero Mar 2016 #12
LOL. Yeah, just like all those other states Bernie was going to win by unskewing the polls! DanTex Mar 2016 #6
k&r bigtree Mar 2016 #2
This result would surprise me. I figured Bernie would do very well in Wisconsin MadBadger Mar 2016 #9
I suspect Bernie wins it too but it will be relatively close when he needs blow outs. DemocratSinceBirth Mar 2016 #10
This is the same pollster that has Hillary +48 in NY MadBadger Mar 2016 #14
I would make HRC -20 in NY and SBS -8 in WIS DemocratSinceBirth Mar 2016 #15
She is absolutely going to win NY MadBadger Mar 2016 #16
PA, NY, NJ, MD, IN, and DE should be in her wheelhouse. DemocratSinceBirth Mar 2016 #17
Preaching to the choir MadBadger Mar 2016 #18
Why not 2/1. Dawson Leery Mar 2016 #30
I'd bet your right on that and with independents I'd guess more so. Ellipsis Mar 2016 #13
As I posted in the other thread OkSustainAg Mar 2016 #11
With the results in Illinois and Ohio, Clinton winning wouldn't surprise me KingFlorez Mar 2016 #19
Illinois../ Kittycat Mar 2016 #28
Wisconsin could be a replay of Illinois, certainly. Dawson Leery Mar 2016 #29
Predict Wisconsin Voter Fraud Theory! alcibiades_mystery Mar 2016 #20
The former county clerk in Waukesha county hides all Sanders ballots in her pants. PeaceNikki Mar 2016 #22
Sounds very Wisconsin to me alcibiades_mystery Mar 2016 #39
Also, coyotes. We have a coyote issue. PeaceNikki Mar 2016 #23
Not sure why that poll would be shocking. Cal Carpenter Mar 2016 #21
Shocking because everyone has been saying it will be a blowout for Bernie redstateblues Mar 2016 #33
Here's what Nate has been citing as polling averages- Hillary 58.2%, Bernie 36.9% Bluenorthwest Mar 2016 #41
I see Bernie with a 10 pt. margin as the result. Agschmid Mar 2016 #24
Post removed Post removed Mar 2016 #27
Wha-a-a-a? NurseJackie Mar 2016 #35
Jackie, our friend above you doesn't like me or my post. What do you think ? DemocratSinceBirth Mar 2016 #36
My best guess is that you're correct. NurseJackie Mar 2016 #37
The selective outrage continues to intrigue me. DemocratSinceBirth Mar 2016 #38
Can't stop watching the gif CorkySt.Clair Mar 2016 #42

Barack_America

(28,876 posts)
4. Given landline polls have underestimated him by about 35 points...
Wed Mar 23, 2016, 08:08 PM
Mar 2016

You may be pretty close to the actual result with that!

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,710 posts)
8. Bernie Sanders can be the president of Utah.
Wed Mar 23, 2016, 08:27 PM
Mar 2016

Bernie Sanders can be the president of Utah.



That's as close as the Vermont independent will come to being president of anything.




DemocratSinceBirth

(99,710 posts)
34. I feel a bit bad but my interlocutor struck first.
Thu Mar 24, 2016, 07:07 AM
Mar 2016

Some people puzzle me... X insults Y, what does X expect Y to do?

Do they expect Y to say to himself or herself that they are a pinata or a punching bag?

 

Ned_Devine

(3,146 posts)
26. I think DSB is the same one who told me to "book it" when...
Wed Mar 23, 2016, 10:12 PM
Mar 2016

...he/she declared Bernie wouldn't win a single state about five months ago. I take what he/she says and put it right in the circular file.

 

oberliner

(58,724 posts)
40. That was just a poll of Democrats
Thu Mar 24, 2016, 08:34 AM
Mar 2016

The Utah caucus was open to independents and other non-Democrats who were not polled.

MadBadger

(24,089 posts)
9. This result would surprise me. I figured Bernie would do very well in Wisconsin
Wed Mar 23, 2016, 08:29 PM
Mar 2016

My guess is/was 55-45 running up a huge Margin in Dane County.

Though maybe I'm overestimating his support in Milwaukee County, where there is a good amount of African Americans.

MadBadger

(24,089 posts)
14. This is the same pollster that has Hillary +48 in NY
Wed Mar 23, 2016, 08:32 PM
Mar 2016

And I laughed at that poll.

I don't buy this one, though he definitely won't do what he needs.

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,710 posts)
15. I would make HRC -20 in NY and SBS -8 in WIS
Wed Mar 23, 2016, 08:35 PM
Mar 2016

I don't know why folks think HRC won't do well in NY...Closed primary...Very Diverse electorate... She was a popular senator...

MadBadger

(24,089 posts)
16. She is absolutely going to win NY
Wed Mar 23, 2016, 08:36 PM
Mar 2016

And those numbers seem right. I just don't see her winning NY like she did SC.

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,710 posts)
17. PA, NY, NJ, MD, IN, and DE should be in her wheelhouse.
Wed Mar 23, 2016, 08:40 PM
Mar 2016

CT is a push and she's a -8 favorite in CA., just my opinion.

I only did the bigger states...


Well, DE is not big !!!

KingFlorez

(12,689 posts)
19. With the results in Illinois and Ohio, Clinton winning wouldn't surprise me
Wed Mar 23, 2016, 08:51 PM
Mar 2016

Milwaukee County could give her a narrow win statewide.

Kittycat

(10,493 posts)
28. Illinois../
Wed Mar 23, 2016, 10:27 PM
Mar 2016

So, are we to expect the same thing happening with polls closing up despite extended hours? Polls closing after hours of waiting without ballots showing up? Hours and hours throughout the day without ballots? The in one county the judge orders voting on Monday because it was so bad, the the AG gets involved and argues against it to "maintain election integrity"? Because that is was happened in IL. And it was a 2pt win

Dawson Leery

(19,348 posts)
29. Wisconsin could be a replay of Illinois, certainly.
Wed Mar 23, 2016, 10:33 PM
Mar 2016

She is doing better in the rural areas in WI than in other states, according to the polls.

GOTV.

Cal Carpenter

(4,959 posts)
21. Not sure why that poll would be shocking.
Wed Mar 23, 2016, 09:33 PM
Mar 2016

Aside from one exception, all polls in WI so far have shown a Hillary lead - generally a bigger one than this. If this poll shows anything (and that is a big if), it is that her lead has been gradually shrinking. And given the disparity between polls and actual results throughout this primary season, it doesn't tell us much more than that (ie what the result of the actual primary will be).

 

Bluenorthwest

(45,319 posts)
41. Here's what Nate has been citing as polling averages- Hillary 58.2%, Bernie 36.9%
Thu Mar 24, 2016, 09:54 AM
Mar 2016

The OP shows a 6 point Clinton advantage when Nate is citing an advantage of over 20 points. What has been said is that it was deeply in Hillary's pocket. It is not so deeply ensconced it seems.
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/michigan-democratic/

Response to DemocratSinceBirth (Original post)

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,710 posts)
36. Jackie, our friend above you doesn't like me or my post. What do you think ?
Thu Mar 24, 2016, 07:35 AM
Mar 2016

Does that mean I am doing something right?


NurseJackie

(42,862 posts)
37. My best guess is that you're correct.
Thu Mar 24, 2016, 07:43 AM
Mar 2016

Unfortunately, with over 1200 individuals on "ignore", I get to avoid most of the rude and ugly comments and replies.

Case-in-point: At present, there are 36 replies to this OP, but I can only see 18 of them ... exactly half!

Putting individuals on ignore has its plus-sides and negative sides. I avoid seeing much of the hatred and attacks (good) but I also miss a lot of the unintentionally hilarious and absurd posts (bad).

Latest Discussions»Retired Forums»2016 Postmortem»Wisconsin Shock Poll- Cl...