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Doctor Jack

(3,072 posts)
Sat Aug 6, 2016, 10:34 PM Aug 2016

I Predict This Election Will Play Out In 2 Ways

Last edited Sun Aug 7, 2016, 01:21 AM - Edit history (1)

I consulted my best set of tarot cards and used all of my crystals to figure out the outcome of the election. I think there are 2 probable outcomes that we are going to see for the rest of this race.

1. In the next week or two, we will see the polls slowly tighten to where clinton is averaging a 5 to 6 point lead and it will more or less stay there for the rest of the election. I think that Clinton has a pretty well established floor and Trump has a ceiling that he can't break through, which will result in a mid-range single digit lead. Perhaps Clinton will have a few sporadic weeks where she b8umps up to 7 or 8, or briefly falls to 4 points but overall, we will see a fairly consistent 5 to 6 point lead nationally. However, with her much more advanced ground game and organization, she will probably win by a bit over 6 points. Probably a little lower than Obama's total in 2008 but still an electoral vote landslide. And where people a few months out will say "it was never really close after the conventions". I would guess this is the more likely path that we are going to take. Maybe a 2 in 3 chance.

2. Option 2 is a spectacular collapse of the Trump campaign to the point that by early September, Clinton is polling in the 12-13 point range on average and keeps pulling in more frightened independents and republicans. And by the time the election rolls around, she wins by at least 15 points, where this election looks a lot like 1984 or 1972. I think that if the idea that trump is deranged and "unfit" really takes off in people's minds, including republicans, that this will be the likely result. I bet that if Clinton has a double digit lead by the end of september that Trump will pack it in and go home, more or less. I would give this 1 in 3 chance. I think it would be a little more likely if republicans didn't have such an irrational hatred of Hillary but Trumps increasingly erratic nature might be enough to convince them to run to Clinton or go with a 3rd party candidate, resulting in a landslide win by the dems.


Now of course it isnt 100% impossible for Trump to win but I think its pretty close to 0% chance of victory for him as a major party candidate can get. If we give option 1 66% chance of happening, option 2 33%, then I would give Trump winning around a 1% chance. I think the lack of infrastructure, his erratic nature, the extremely high negatives, and his declining interest in this campaign make his ability to win exceedingly low. And anyone claiming that he totally can win, like Michael Moore, either has their own agenda in stoking fears or doesn't fully grasp the state of total disarray in Trump's campaign.

People warn that we shouldn't underestimate Trump. I think its the opposite. I think far too many people overestimate him and his chances of farting out a victory in November.

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I Predict This Election Will Play Out In 2 Ways (Original Post) Doctor Jack Aug 2016 OP
Well, I just bookmarked your post, Doctor Jack, so I can see if you're right......... CaliforniaPeggy Aug 2016 #1
Me, too...I would be ecstatic with either one of his predictions! Glorfindel Aug 2016 #4
In the end, I don't think it will be close Doctor Jack Aug 2016 #6
By October Clinton will be up by 10 or more points. Warren Stupidity Aug 2016 #2
Clinton likely will pull the Senate with her OldRedneck Aug 2016 #17
Can we vote? SCantiGOP Aug 2016 #3
People like Mike Moore and Bill Maher are "reverse psyching" people... Wounded Bear Aug 2016 #5
I'm skeptical of the argument of people becoming complacent and then don't vote Doctor Jack Aug 2016 #9
I would like it very much if in the end Trump only got single digits in the general election. SheilaT Aug 2016 #7
I think we cannot discount the possibility of some sort of "October Surprise" engineered either by tblue37 Aug 2016 #8
I don't know if the GOP wants Trump to win either Doctor Jack Aug 2016 #10
They hate Hillary more oberliner Aug 2016 #12
Republicans on Fox News and talk radio maybe Doctor Jack Aug 2016 #13
An October Surprise could be a terrorist attack, or the taking of hostages. tblue37 Aug 2016 #14
Bingo oberliner Aug 2016 #11
Very impressive, Dr. Jack. forest444 Aug 2016 #15
I think you nailed it. OldRedneck Aug 2016 #18
Why, thank you. I hope so! forest444 Aug 2016 #21
Better hope #2 doesnt happen, because there's another possible consequence: 7962 Aug 2016 #16
I think you are correct, sir. liberalmuse Aug 2016 #19
Thanks OP, I have a different view about this Presidential Polling. The Kochs say they(and friends) Todays_Illusion Aug 2016 #20
I admit that I used to dislike trump, bleedinglib Aug 2016 #22
I guarantee you Limbaugh is voting for Hillary.... Spitfire of ATJ Aug 2016 #23
Doctor Jack MFM008 Aug 2016 #24

CaliforniaPeggy

(149,308 posts)
1. Well, I just bookmarked your post, Doctor Jack, so I can see if you're right.........
Sat Aug 6, 2016, 10:37 PM
Aug 2016

and by how much.

I do like how you think.

Doctor Jack

(3,072 posts)
6. In the end, I don't think it will be close
Sat Aug 6, 2016, 10:45 PM
Aug 2016

A 6ish point win is still a solid victory. Closer than I think Clinton deserves over a shit sandwich like trump but I think its possible that a good number of republicans would rather go down with the ship (the ship meaning to die in a nuclear war under trump) than vote for Clinton. I think they are so conditioned to think that she is the devil that they won't be able to pull the lever for her. That is the one thing that could prevent a once in a generation landslide. However, there is also evidence that many republicans are saying "fuck it, trump is out of his damn mind, i have to go with clinton", so we will see. The polls in the next 2 or 3 weeks will be very telling as to which outcome we will end up with.

Either way, I believe Trump will lose and lose badly. We will just have to wait and see if it is lose badly like McCain lost or lose badly like Goldwater lost.

 

Warren Stupidity

(48,181 posts)
2. By October Clinton will be up by 10 or more points.
Sat Aug 6, 2016, 10:39 PM
Aug 2016

Down-ticket Republicans will be scrambling to disassociate from Trump. It will be a popular and electoral blowout. Clinton might pull the senate with her as well. Dems will make substantial gains in the House.

Along the way the Repub senate will likely approve Obama's SCOTUS pick as he is better from their perspective than what will surely follow.

 

OldRedneck

(1,397 posts)
17. Clinton likely will pull the Senate with her
Sat Aug 6, 2016, 11:51 PM
Aug 2016

I'm really expecting Clinton to win the Senate for us. HOWEVER . . . in two years, there are over 20 Senate Democrats facing re-election. 2018 will be tough for us because you know the GOP will pound on whatever she does in her first two years.

SCantiGOP

(13,856 posts)
3. Can we vote?
Sat Aug 6, 2016, 10:41 PM
Aug 2016

I take option 2.

Seriously, I think the race will end up in the 5-10 point range, but Clinton will win a few- maybe as many as 4 or 5- more states than Obama did.

And let's not forget : we need the Senate or it may be impossible to put decent judges on the Court.

Wounded Bear

(58,442 posts)
5. People like Mike Moore and Bill Maher are "reverse psyching" people...
Sat Aug 6, 2016, 10:44 PM
Aug 2016

They are smarter than that. What they're worried about is that Dems assume the win, like in your scenario #2 and just stay home, resulting in limited gains in the House and Senate. I don't really worry about them saying what they do, in fact I kind of like it.

We have a chance to spin your #2 option into flipping the House and Senate (Senate is probable right now, IMHO, regardless of scenario), and I seriously want to do that. Maybe, just maybe, if we can do that we can make up some of the ground we lost due to Repub obstructionism during Obama's term.

Doctor Jack

(3,072 posts)
9. I'm skeptical of the argument of people becoming complacent and then don't vote
Sat Aug 6, 2016, 10:50 PM
Aug 2016

Is there any proof that a candidate with a large lead by election day ends up losing or only winning by a small amount because their supporters don't feel it necessary to vote? We hear that a lot from people like Bill Maher but i don't know if it actually happens in the real world.

 

SheilaT

(23,156 posts)
7. I would like it very much if in the end Trump only got single digits in the general election.
Sat Aug 6, 2016, 10:46 PM
Aug 2016

It's important to everyone here to keep in mind that Hillary Clinton still has very high negatives. Fortunately, Donald Trumps negatives are sky high, some ten points higher than hers.

So while a lot of people, especially those here, consider the possibility of a Trump Presidency to be a genuine disaster, it's important not to lose sight of the fact that a huge number of people think the same thing of a Clinton Presidency. This statement is NOT to be construed as supporting Trump or not supporting Clinton. It's simply pointing out that there is still a very tough road ahead. Unless Trump truly does implode and Option 2 more or less happens as stated, it's hugely important to think, strategize, and campaign as if every poll had him a bit ahead.

It's still a very long time until November 8.

tblue37

(64,982 posts)
8. I think we cannot discount the possibility of some sort of "October Surprise" engineered either by
Sat Aug 6, 2016, 10:48 PM
Aug 2016

the GOP and its r**f***ing operatives or by some external actor(s). Nor can we discount the possibility that the GOP will find a way to persuade or push Trump out of the race in time to replace him with a candidate more palatable to the general public--like Ryan or Romney.

IF there is no October Surprise and no palatable replacement candidate, then I think we can say we've probably got this.

Doctor Jack

(3,072 posts)
10. I don't know if the GOP wants Trump to win either
Sat Aug 6, 2016, 10:56 PM
Aug 2016

It seems unlikely that the republicans would do anything to help him because they seem to absolutely hate him. I think most elected republicans want him to lose, so that they can try again in 2020 with a much more normal candidate. It really seems Trump is out there on his own and if he dropped out tomorrow that the RNC would throw a week like party at their headquarters in celebration.

As for a group like wikileaks trying some october surprise....well, we have to assume they have some kind of horribly damaging information on Clinton. And in that case, we have to assume that she has actually done something so god awful that Trump would look good by comparison, which i greatly doubt she ever has. Also, their last leak did absolutely nothing. A few people made a fuss for a few days but no one even seems to care any more. That was a pretty bold step they took to try and destroy her during the democratic convention and it didn't do shit. I would assume that DNC emails were the best they had or else they would have gone with something more damaging a few weeks back. They may have some more piddly little shit but i bet the DNC emails were their ace in the hole and it was about as damaging as someone throwing a birthday balloon at your head.

 

oberliner

(58,724 posts)
12. They hate Hillary more
Sat Aug 6, 2016, 11:07 PM
Aug 2016

Listen to them talk about her. Notice how they still continue to support Trump in spite of everything.

Doctor Jack

(3,072 posts)
13. Republicans on Fox News and talk radio maybe
Sat Aug 6, 2016, 11:12 PM
Aug 2016

Those at the RNC and in the governors mansions think he is a dangerous moron. They may refuse to unendorse him, for the most part, but they clearly despise him. They don't unendorse him because they are spineless assholes. But they aren't going to tip the scale in his favor. They will breathe a sigh of relief when he loses.

tblue37

(64,982 posts)
14. An October Surprise could be a terrorist attack, or the taking of hostages.
Sat Aug 6, 2016, 11:13 PM
Aug 2016

(Remember what happened to Carter's presidency when the embassy staff was taken hostage in Iran?)

Or it could be a complete tanking of the US economy--or of the world economy.

It doesn't need to be a deliberate attempt by Wikileaks to scuttle Hillary's candidacy. It could be any external event that the GOP could get American voters to blame on the current administration.

I think that if the Republican establishment are not able to get Trump off the ballot somehow, to be replaced by a more "normal" candidate, they WILL do everything in their power to help him win, because they want a GOP president to appoint the next several SCOTUS justices.

Just as the oligarchs in Germany thought about Hitler, the GOP power players believe that they would be able to control the monster, at least enough to make it preferable to a Clinton presidency. They believe they would find a way to ensure that the damage he could do would be limited--and even that they could impeach him and move Pence up to the presidency if things got bad enough.

If people like Ryan and McConnell didn't believe they could control him enough to make him (from their perspective) preferable to Clinton as president, they would not still be "supporting" him while others jump ship. They would be openly ditching him already.

They don't want him to lose--they are just afraid and almost certain that he will, and that he will drag down a lot of other GOP candidates as he does so. I don't think they will strongly support him, nor do they themselves want to get too much of his bad publicity smeared all over their own personal brands, but they do hope he can win and not tank other GOP races.

forest444

(5,902 posts)
15. Very impressive, Dr. Jack.
Sat Aug 6, 2016, 11:24 PM
Aug 2016

While not as expert as you are, I dabble in Tarot myself.

I've asked about Hillary only a few times so far this year; but the outcome always suggested the same thing: a victory for the Queen of Cups (this appeared both during the primary, and afterward). Since Hillary, as you know, has her Sun in Scorpio, and since there are no other Water-element women running, that must certainly be her.

The spreads (Celtic Cross) also repeatedly suggested that her victory would be to no small degree thanks to the influence of a King of Pentacles. That could be either Bernie (Virgo) or Libertarian Candidate Gary Johnson (Capricorn) - although it could also be someone in a position of great influence who isn't himself in politics.

Warren Buffett (Virgo), perhaps?

Either way, thanks for sharing.

forest444

(5,902 posts)
21. Why, thank you. I hope so!
Sun Aug 7, 2016, 12:04 AM
Aug 2016

Besides. The way Trump has been running that mouth of his, I don't think one needs the Tarot anymore to see that the Presidency is, shall we say, in the cards for her.

 

7962

(11,841 posts)
16. Better hope #2 doesnt happen, because there's another possible consequence:
Sat Aug 6, 2016, 11:32 PM
Aug 2016

IF trump keeps going the way hes going, your point of many flocking to the Independent may happen. But most who would vote for trump wouldnt go with Stein, they'd go with Johnson. And if THAT happened, he could win some states. Trump could also win some states. And the result COULD be HRC not hitting 270.
In which case the House would pick Johnson, becaue they sure wouldnt pick HRC & most dont care for Trump either. A long shot, yeah, but a possibility
But I agree with you on the #1 scenario being most likely & the worst defeat since Mondale

liberalmuse

(18,670 posts)
19. I think you are correct, sir.
Sun Aug 7, 2016, 12:02 AM
Aug 2016

I noted after reading some of the inane gibberish he's spouting at his rallies today that Trump is already going off script. So that means he was able to stay mostly on script for almost 1 whole day. Unless his script writer is just as nutty as he is, which is possible, but unlikely.

Todays_Illusion

(1,209 posts)
20. Thanks OP, I have a different view about this Presidential Polling. The Kochs say they(and friends)
Sun Aug 7, 2016, 12:03 AM
Aug 2016

aren't spending on the Presidential campaigns, but they are not only spending big on the U.S. and House and Senate Races they are spending big on State races. They are doing an immense nationwide effort, including that one that was posted here on DU about county by county contacting union members. They are working in the AA community, the Hispanic communities all communities and are contacting members of traditional liberal and Democratic organizations. and their political ads for legislative candidates include attacks against Hillary Clinton.

This nationwide, state by state, county by county effort of course will include a huge get out the vote effort and that is why Trump could win.

bleedinglib

(212 posts)
22. I admit that I used to dislike trump,
Sun Aug 7, 2016, 12:25 AM
Aug 2016

But now he is my champion !! anyone that can damage the republicans the way he has is " A super Hero with a cape "

 

Spitfire of ATJ

(32,723 posts)
23. I guarantee you Limbaugh is voting for Hillary....
Sun Aug 7, 2016, 12:39 AM
Aug 2016

He's looking at her becoming president as his big comeback.

MFM008

(19,782 posts)
24. Doctor Jack
Sun Aug 7, 2016, 01:03 AM
Aug 2016

What you said!

Oh, another senerio.... tRump goes barking, frothing mouth, batshit insane and they drag him off
to his next office in a padded room.

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