2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forum538: Election Update: Why Clinton Doesn’t Have This Race Locked Up
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-why-clinton-doesnt-have-this-race-locked-up/In 1980, Jimmy Carter, after a successful convention, was tied with Ronald Reagan according to the national polling average.2 But Reagan ended up winning by nearly 10 percentage points. Reagans gains were greater than the deficit Trump faces now.
Just four years before Reagans victory, Gerald Ford nearly pulled off the greatest comeback in the modern polling era. Ford was down by double digits in 1976. But aided by a decent job approval rating and perhaps by Carters missteps, Ford narrowed Carters lead and even inched ahead in the final Gallup poll of the campaign. Ford didnt win another term, but he proved that a race can change even after both conventions are in the rearview mirror.
Perhaps the most interesting potential precedent for the 2016 campaign is 1968.3 Richard Nixon was up by 8 percentage points and opened an even larger lead in the fall. But Hubert Humphrey was able to consolidate a previously divided Democratic base (as Trump needs to do with Republicans) and cut into Nixons lead. Humphrey was also aided by President Lyndon Johnsons rising approval ratings and the original October surprise (an announcement by Johnson that the U.S. was halting the bombing in Vietnam). Humphrey ended up losing in the second-closest presidential election of the 1900s. Its not too difficult to imagine Republicans rallying behind Trump perhaps Clinton is hit with a scandal or WikiLeaks drops an October surprise.
Indeed, half the presidential elections included in the table saw the difference between the candidates support change by more than 5 percentage points. Three races experienced a shift that was greater than Clintons current lead in the national polls. There are a lot of undecided voters this year, so we could still see a large shift.
molova
(543 posts)Back then, increasing the probability that polls were simply off.
OKNancy
(41,832 posts)Pretty much what Hillary says: don't get complacent
book_worm
(15,951 posts)when the hostages were back in the news and Iran said they wouldn't release them. After than Carter fell ten points and didn't have enough time to recover.
Hortensis
(58,785 posts)oswaldactedalone
(3,489 posts)Which sank him as well. Part of it was that somehow his debate "briefing books" were stolen prior to the debate, probably a Rethuglican ratfuck, and part of it was when he mentioned his daughter in the debate with regard to him talking to her about nuclear weapons. It came across as insincere. I was a Carter supporter but even I rolled my eyes with that one. It didn't play well.
The debates are what could make a big change in this election, assuming they're held, because either Dump makes an ass of himself and is swamped, or Hillary says something taken out of context, and is ripped for it. Think back to how Gore was clearly seen to have won the first debate with W, but the right wing meme started the next day about his facial expressions when Bush spoke was used against him and he fell behind W in the polls.
beachbum bob
(10,437 posts)there are so many angry white males and not enough to make up for all the other voters that trump continues to insult
Monk06
(7,675 posts)UCmeNdc
(9,589 posts)Ronald Reagan made a behind Carter's back deal with Iran in which Iran would keep the hostages until after the election. In return once elected Reagan will give Iran arms and repair parts for its military weapons. The hostage crisis brought Carter's poll numbers down.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,705 posts)Demsrule86
(68,352 posts)polling, this late in the game, and that would be Harry Truman and Gore but consider many think Gore actually won, thus I will consider Truman only because no matter what Gore won the popular vote. Trump is no Truman. As Chris Matthews pointed out on his show, yesterday, we should go for the big win and stop worrying about things that could go wrong. An opportunity like this only comes around once in a generation...we should take advantage...and stop saying yeah...she is doing OK but but but...concern and more concern...I want Hillary, the House, and the Senate...I WANT IT ALL. You can borrow my fainting couch until you are feeling a bit stronger.
This might help.
http://www.vox.com/2016/8/11/12426346/trump-polls-today